These are stories Report on Business is following Thursday, Aug. 8, 2013.
This is the issue David Rosenberg raises today. But this time, the chief economist of Gluskin Sheff + Associates says, it’s not about supply, but rather demand.
Mr. Rosenberg cites a recent Economist article – it’s titled “Yesterday’s fuel” and comes with a cute illustration of a dinosaur holding a gas pump handle – that says demand has already peaked in wealthy nations while auto industry technology makes ever greater gains.
“In this case, it is about demand, not supply, and the implications are none too positive for crude prices going forward but this is all very good news for profit margins in the manufacturing and the aggregate costs curve in the world’s industrialized economies,” Mr. Rosenberg said in a report today.
“With the world still saddled with extremely challenging debt issues, it is nice to at least talk about one file that should help spur on growth in overall income and demand.”
Here are seven points from Mr. Rosenberg:
1. Oil demand has declined in the industrialized world since 2005. The International Energy Agency now projects global demand at 97 million barrels a day, down 13 per cent from the 112 million projected about 15 years ago.
2. Oil subsidies are falling, notably in producing nations, “offsetting natural demand growth from the emerging markets.”
3. Technology to get the stuff out of the ground is evolving quickly. “Fracking along with new discoveries of conventional gas in short order has increased world reserves to 200 years from 50 years.”
4. By 2020, natural gas will displace up to 3.5 million barrels a day of oil. “As it stands, 40 per cent of garbage trucks in the USA and 20 per cent of buses now run on natural gas. [Caterpillar and General Electric] are apparently working on building natural gas powered railway trains.”
5. Auto technology has “shifted the demand curve.” Engines are more efficient and hybrids are growing more popular. “Cars are becoming more efficient to the tune of 3 per cent to 4 per cent annually, and if this continues, it will lead to global demand seven years down the road being some 3.8 million barrels a day below what would have otherwise been the case.”
6. Environmental initiatives in emerging economies will “act as a brake on demand growth.”
7. Nuclear energy is “staging a comeback.”
What does all this mean?
"A substantially lower energy price environment is singularly the most bullish underpinning to the global cost curve and real purchasing power (the U.S. in particular), which is very constructive for capital goods industries that are highly intensive, not to mention the positive impact on disposable incomes (and cyclical consumer spending as a result)," Mr. Rosenberg said.
- Alberta oil sands gets first big-money deal this year
- ROB Insight (for subscribers): Big Oil flounders even as share prices stay afloat
- The Economist: Yesterday's fuel
Tim Hortons unveils new plan
Something to ponder with your coffee and doughnut today: Tim Hortons Inc. plans $900-million in additional debt to fund an expanded stock buyback program of $1-billion.
As it posted stronger second-quarter results today, the coffee-and-doughnut chain, which has been under pressure from activist investors, said the debt would be in the form of bank credit or newly issued bonds.
“We expect our credit metrics to remain investment grade following the recapitalization, thereby preserving our strong balance sheet, cash flows, and access to capital as we pursue our strategic planning work,” the chain said.
Tim Hortons also posted a jump in second-quarter profit to $123.7-million or 81 cents a share from $108.1-million or 69 cents a year earlier, The Globe and Mail's Marina Strauss reports.
Revenue climbed 2 per cent to $800.1-million from $785.6-million.
The coffee chain said it’s sticking to its earnings-per-share targets for the year, but warned that Canadian and U.S. same-store sales, the key measure in retailing, is expected to come in below its targeted range based on the year so far.
Sun denied mandatory carriage
Sun News Network won’t get any financial help from Canada’s broadcast regulator, throwing its future into doubt just two years after it went to air with a promise of “hard news and straight talk,” The Globe and Mail’s Steve Ladurantaye reports.
The controversial all-news channel hoped to be forced onto basic digital television subscriptions across the country, but the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission rejected its application despite the channel’s insistence that its heavy reliance on Canadian content made it a logical fit for wide distribution.
The channel is losing about $17-million a year, and its executives vowed to pull the plug if it didn’t receive the designation. It also said it wouldn’t appeal a rejection, which could mean the end of the network unless it comes up with another way to stop its losses.
- CRTC denies Sun News mandatory carriage
- CRTC to look at making Canadian news channels available to all
BCE boosts outlook
BCE Inc. is painting a brighter outlook for the year, even as its second-quarter profit dips.
As The Globe and Mail's Rita Trichur reports, the communications giant today posted a second-quarter profit of $571-million or 74 cents a share, down from $732-million or 94 cents a year earlier.
On an adjusted basis, earnings per share slipped to 77 cents from 97 cents, and operating revenues rose 1.5 per cent to $5-billion.
Given its acquisition of Astral Media Inc., BCE now projects revenue gains of 2 per cent to 4 per cent for its Bell unit this year.
“We delivered a solid set of financial results in Q2, backed by continued wireless postpaid strength along with good operational progress in our wireline business and a strong contribution from our media business,” said chief financial officer Siim Vanaselja.
Rival Telus Corp., in turn, posted a dip in profit to $286-million or 44 cents a share from $299-million or 46 cents a year earlier. Adjusted profit rose to $354-million or 54 cents from $312-million or 48 cents, and operating revenue climbed to $2.83-billion from $2.67-billion.
"Solid year-to-date results put Telus on track to achieve our revenue and profitability targets set out for 2013, which we reaffirmed today," said chief financial officer John Gossling.
Manulife swings to profit
Manulife Financial Corp. rebounded to a second-quarter profit, though hit by charges tied to market conditions, The Globe and Mail’s Jacqueline Nelson reports.
The Canadian insurer today posted a profit of $259-million or 12 cents a share, compared to the loss of $281-million or 17 cents a year earlier.
Still, adjusted profit of 31 cents was a penny shy of what analysts expected.
“Our second-quarter net income is not as strong as we would have liked, due to the impact of a number of market-related items,” said chief executive officer Donald Guloien.
“Having said that, it is a significant improvement over the prior year, volatility is being constrained, core earnings are strong, and our outlook is positive.”
Earnings flood in
Trying to keep up with all the other Canadian corporate earnings flooding in today? Try this:
Canadian Tire’s second-quarter profit rose to $154.9-million or $1.91 a share from $133.7-million or $1.63. Sales ro to $3.56-billion from $3.48-billion.
Cineplex Inc.’s second-quarter profit climbed to $28.5-million or 45 cents a share from $21-million or 34 cents a year earlier, The Globe and Mail’s Steve Ladurantaye reports. Revenue rose more than 14 per cent to $301.6-million.
Quebecor Inc. fell to a quarterly loss of $45.1-million or 73 cents a share from a profit of $65.5-million. Revenue rose by less than 1 per cent to $1.09-billion.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.’s second-quarter profit slipped to $476-million or 44 cents a share from $753-million or 68 cents. Adjusted profit fell to 42 cents from 82 cents.
- Scott Barlow in ROB Insight (for subscribers): Earnings checkup: Energy, materials stocks disappoint on TSX
- Canadian Tire profit climbs 16 per cent as retail sales rise
- Luxury theatres add sparkle to Cineplex results
- Advertising freefall continues to drag on Quebecor media unit
- Canadian Natural Resources profit slips
Bitcoin 'is a currency'
Despite what others may think, a U.S. judge has found that Bitcoin is real money.
Magistrate Judge Amoz Mazzant was ruling earlier this week on questions related to Securites and Exchange Commission allegations against Trendon Shavers of Texas, who is accused by the regulator of using his Bitcoin Savings & Trust to run a Ponzi scheme.
No allegations against Mr. Shavers have been proven. Mr. Shavers, whose BTCST had previously been known as First Pirate Savings & Trust, is alleged to have taken in the equivalent of almost $4.6-million (U.S.). That’s based on the daily average price of the virtual currency in question, some 700,467 “Bitcoin in principal investments,” according to Judge Mazzant of the U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Texas.
“The BTCST investors who suffered net losses (compared to investors who received more in withdrawals and purported interest payments than they invested in principal), collectively lost 263,104 Bitcoin in principal, that is $1,834,303 based on the daily average price of Bitcoin when they purchased their BTCST investments, or in excess of $23-million based on currently available Bitcoin exchange rates,” the judge wrote.
The question for Judge Mazzant was whether the investments in BTCST constituted securities under U.S. law.
“Shavers argues that the BTCST investments are not securities because Bitcoin is not money, and is not part of anything regulated by the United States,” the judge wrote.
“Shavers also contends that his transactions were all Bitcoin transactions and that no money ever exchanged hands. The SEC argues that the BTCST investments are both investment contracts and notes, and, thus, are securities.”
Here’s a key line from the ruling: “It is clear that Bitcoin can be used as money. It can be used to purchase goods or services, and as Shavers stated, used to pay for individual living expenses. The only limitation of Bitcoin is that is limited to those places that accept it as currency. However, it can also be exchanged for conventional currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, euro, yen and yuan. Therefore, Bitcoin is a currency or form of money, and investors wishing to invest in BTCST provided an investment of money.”
Many observers do not consider Bitcoins, whose value has ranged from less than $2 to more than $260 apiece, real money, though some businesses have accepted them.
Shares of Groupon Inc. surged today after its better second-quarter results and its decision to name co-founder Eric Lefkofsky chief executive officer.
Mr. Lefkofsky had been interim CEO of the online “daily deal” company since early this year.
Groupon’s stock has a had a rough ride since its $20 (U.S.) days in 2011. Its 52-week low is $2.60, and its 52-week high $9.43.
Groupon’s second-quarter loss narrowed to $7.6-million or a penny a share, compared to $28.4-million or 4 cents a year earlier.
Its gross billings climbed 10 per cent, and notably 30 per cent in North America, while revenue rose 7 per cent to $608.7-million.
Importantly, about half of its North American business is now done via mobile devices, up from 30 per cent a year earlier.
“With two quarters on the job, I’m pleased with the progress we’ve made in such a short time,” Mr. Lefkofsky said.
“We continue to gain traction in mobile, with nearly 50 per cent of North American transactions coming from mobile in June," he added.
"To date, more than 50 million people have downloaded Groupon apps worldwide.”
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