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Jobless rate climbs Canada's jobs markets is clearly on the ropes, although the details aren't as bad as they seem on first blush.
Canada's economy lost almost 19,000 jobs in November - that's the third decline in four months, The Globe and Mail's Tavia Grant reports - and the unemployment rate edged higher to 7.4 per cent. Today's report from Statistics Canada follows a loss of 54,000 jobs in October.
Here's what to keep in mind: Part-time employment fell by 53,000, while the gain in full-time work numbered 35,000. And over the course of the past year, some 212,000 jobs have been created, largely full time.
"Within industries, there were decent gains in construction, but manufacturing dipped to new lows, and there were big declines in wholesale/retail trade, consistent with the loss of part-time jobs," said chief economist Avery Shenfeld of CIBC World Markets.
"Over all, while there was at least some encouraging news in the lean back towards full time work, the overall picture is one of a continued softening in Canada's jobs market, suggesting a slowing in economic growth after a brisk third quarter."
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has said he stands ready to act on the jobs front, and he has already taken some baby steps. But with the jobless rate continuing to climb, it's clearly time to do more.
Only this morning, Mr. Flaherty said he met for pre-budget talks with business and other officials in Charlottetown, launching what he called "a series of cross-Canada consultations on how best to ensure Canada's economy continues to produce jobs and growth in a difficult global economy."
That, too, is a good sign, but it must be a priority for the government. While Canada is still in an enviable position - the U.S. jobless rate is 8.6 per cent and the euro zone's above 10 per cent - the outlook is dimming.
Derek Burleton, the deputy chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, for example, projected today that Canada's jobless rate will climb further to between 7.5 per cent and 8 per cent over the next six months.
"There appears to be little on the horizon that will breathe new life into the job market," Mr. Burleton warned.
"In particular, government hiring, which has been a cornerstone of employment growth in recent years, is set to cool significantly. Export-oriented jobs will be kept in check by the ongoing turmoil in Europe and likelihood of spillover to the broader global economy. Growth in hiring in private-sector services in Canada will probably fare somewhat better than average, but today's report shows few areas of strength on that front. Add it all up, and the hiring struggles are likely to extend well into 2012."
This will, of course, put a damper on the economy.
"The numbers don't bode well for near-term consumer spending trends," Mr. Burleton said. "Despite the rebound in wage growth in November, weakness in personal incomes combined with elevated household indebtedness will continue to keep consumers hesitant to spend this holiday season and into the New Year."
U.S. jobless rate tumbles Canada's fortunes are, of course, tied to the United States, where unemployment appears to be slowly easing.
There's something troubling about today's U.S. jobs report, though. True, the economy created 120,000 jobs in November, according to the Labor Department, but the unemployment rate tumbled to 8.6 per cent from 9.4. That drop seems large compared to the number of jobs created, though the two figures come from different surveys.
There were other optimistics signs as well, however. The Labor Department revised its readings from September and October to show more jobs were gained than previously reported.
"Job creation remains soft by historic standards," said senior economist Krishen Rangasamy of National Bank. "We need monthly employment gains over 200,000 to make a significant and sustainable dent in the unemployment rate. So, the sooner Congress extends the payroll tax cuts, the better will be prospects for employment creation and consumption spending."
RIM takes hit Research In Motion Ltd. disappointed again today, saying it expects to miss its financial targets for the year and is taking a hefty hit related to its PlayBook tablet. And in a troubling sign, RIM said it expects to ship fewer BlackBerry units in the fourth quarter than it did in the third.
The BlackBerry maker said it would take a $485-million (U.S.) provision in the third quarter, or $360-million after tax, given the "high level" of the tablet's inventory.
"The company now believes that an increase in promotional activity is required to drive sell-through to end customers," the company said in a statement.
"This is due to several factors, including recent shifts in the competitive dynamics of the tablet market and a delay in the release of the PlayBook OS 2.0 software. As a result, RIM will record a provision that reflects the current market environment and allows it to expand upon the aggressive level of promotional activity recently employed by the company in order to drive PlayBook adoption around the world."
Retailers have been discounting the PlayBook, which is trying to compete in a world dominated by the iPad from Apple Inc. .
RIM, which reports results in mid-December, also warned it won't meet its earnings targets.
First, it said it now expects adjusted earnings per share in the quarter to be "at the low to mid point" of its previous forecast of $1.20 to $1.40. That excludes the hit from the PlayBook and the costs associated with the BlackBerry blackout earlier this year. As well, it said it doesn't expect to meet its full-year forecast of $5.25 to $6.
"The lower expected shipments in the fourth quarter are due to several factors including lower than expected sell-through in the third quarter and RIM's current view of fourth quarter demand," RIM said of its BlackBerry outlook.
Merkel tells it like it is Angela Merkel put a little spark in global markets today by repeating her call for a tighter fiscal union. But what's most notable about the German chancellor's remarks in Parliament today is how straight she's shooting when it comes to the bleak outlook for the euro zone.
Ms. Merkel again rejected the idea of eurobonds for the 17-member monetary union, and warned that there is no quick fix to end the raging debt crisis.
"In order to win back trust, we need to do more, where we today have agreements, we need in the future to have legally binding regulations," she said, adding that the euro zone must win back the trust that was "damaged 60 times."
Her comments followed those of her French colleague Nicolas Sarkozy a day earlier.
All eyes are now on an EU summit in Brussels Dec. 9, where Mr. Sarkozy and Ms. Merkel will push for changes to the treaty that binds the group. But economists warn markets may be disappointed, as they have been many times before in this two-year-old crisis.
"This is about closer monitoring of member states with tougher sanctions for those who break the rules," said currency strategist Elsa Lignos at RBC in London. "Expecting more than that from the Dec. 9 Summit is a set-up for disappointment."
- Merkel, Sarkozy fight for euro
- 8 days left to save euro zone: 'Expect to be disappointed'
- ECB ready to take action
Markets climb Global markets are on the rise this morning, buoyed by Ms. Merkel's comments and U.S. jobs numbers.
Tokyo's Nikkei rose 0.5 per cent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.2 per cent. In Europe, London's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX and the Paris CAC 40 were up by between 1.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent by about 9:15 a.m. ET. Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 futures also rose.
"We might have been here many times before, but hopes of more progress on the euro zone crisis are buoying markets this morning," said Chris Beauchamp of IG Index.
"Comments from ECB head Mario Draghi, who hinted last night at a greater role for the ECB in the crisis if governments work on restoring confidence in their finances, have boosted risk appetite, while both Mr. Sarkozy and Ms. Merkel have done their bit, saying that progress was being made towards a more comprehensive fiscal union. Traders are studiously ignoring the bit in Merkel's speech about continued opposition to eurobonds and active ECB intervention, hoping that, somehow, the Germans will finally relent and pick up the tab for their spendthrift compatriots in the euro zone."
Banks beat Street Canada's major banks are performing better than markets expected.
Yesterday, Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce beat the estimates of analysts for fourth-quarter results. Today, Royal Bank of Canada followed suit, The Globe and Mail's Grant Robertson reports.
RBC's profit in the quarter climbed 43 per cent to $1.6-billion or $1.07 a share, from $1.12-billion or 74 cents a year earlier. Revenue increased slightly to $6.8-billion as strong results from the bank's Canadian operations helped offset weakness in capital markets.
Bank of Nova Scotia , in turn, earned $1.24-billion or $1.08, up from $1.15-billion or $1 a share. Scotiabank grew by acquisition and boosted its loans, The Globe and Mail's Boyd Erman writes.
- RBC profit climbs 43 per cent
- Scotia earnings rise 11% on acquisitions, loan growth
- TD Bank, CIBC brace for tough 2012
- Why CIBC lost marks on CEO's equity holdings
In Economy Lab The Canadian experience with greater dental competition has lessons for the U.S., Frances Woolley writes.
In International Business Now that the European Union has made clear it is moving towards imposing an embargo on Iranian oil, how will Tehran respond? Javier Blas of The Financial Times examines the issue.
In Globe Careers The experiments of personal development coach Steve Pavlina encourage us to think of our own sleep patterns, and how they might be tweaked or revamped, Harvey Schachter writes.
From today's Report on Business