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April in Alberta. If farmers are unable to get their seeds in the ground within the next two weeks, yields will start to drop.Chris Bolin for The Globe and Mail

Much of the Western Canadian grain belt is edging closer to joining the global list of farming regions hammered by disastrous weather, potentially pushing food prices even higher and making the country's agricultural products more valuable.

Flooding in parts of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta is pushing spring seeding about two weeks behind schedule. If farmers are unable to get their seeds in the ground within the next two weeks, yields will start to plummet. Further, this winter's unusually thick snow pack arrived after excessive rainfall last summer and fall, which saturated the land and left it unable to absorb the heavy spring runoff caused by melting snow.

While a crop failure in Western Canada alone will not cause global grain and food prices to skyrocket, it will exacerbate weather-related woes in some regions of Australia, China, Ukraine, Russia and the southern American grain belt that have already boosted prices.

So while Canadian farmers affected by flooding will feel the pinch, those who are able to sow their fields will be in good shape. Since the vast majority of this country's grain production is exported, global price increases will boost the value of a resource that's often overlooked by investors.

"There's nothing on the horizon that leads me to believe that wheat [is]going to go down in price," said Don Brown, the acting director of economics at Alberta's Department of Agriculture and Rural Development. "There's enough weather issues around the world," he added.

"This looks like a good year to be a grain farmer, assuming you can get it planted."

For many farmers in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, that's proving problematic. More snow and rain loom in the forecast and some fields are already flooding. May 1 is a key date in the seeding season, with experts able to forecast the yield farmers will lose for every day planting is delayed beyond that. But even if farmers are able to get their heavy machinery in the fields before May 1 - something that can't be ruled out yet - standing water is likely to prevent them from sowing all their land.

"That's when we start to become seriously concerned," said Ross McKenzie, an agronomy research scientist with Alberta's Department of Agriculture and Rural Development. Seeding in other years, he noted, has often kicked off in the first or second week of April.

Canola yields drop by 1.7 per cent for every day seeding is delayed past May 1, durum wheat yields shed 1.3 per cent a day, and spring wheat crops lose about 0.8 per cent per day of their potential, Mr. McKenzie said. The average non-irrigated farm around Medicine Hat and Cypress Hills, a region currently experiencing floods, is between 1,200 hectares and 2,020 hectares, he said, meaning even a short delay on such a big farm can translate into notable losses.

Normally, a production shortfall in Western Canada wouldn't have much effect on global markets, with other regions more than able to pick up the slack. But winter wheat farmers in Kansas and Texas are facing dry conditions; the north China plain also lacks moisture; and the effects of last year's flooding in Australia, which damaged the quality of grain more than its quantity, are still working their way through the market, Mr. Brown said. Further, last summer's wildfires and droughts in Ukraine and parts of Russia mean the soil in those regions is unable to hold much water as farmers start this year's planting season.

All of that means that, even if conditions change in Western Canada, grain prices are likely to stay strong. This could translate into higher food prices, but that does not mean everything on the table will cost more because different varieties of grain are used for different products.

For example, hard red spring wheat is used to make white bread, but other varieties of the grain, such as soft white wheat, can be used in products such as Chinese-style noodles, Mr. Brown said.

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