OTTAWA -- The polls are telling Liberals what, until now, was unthinkable: Unless Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin end their bloody civil war, the party risks losing the next election.

Previously, no matter how down and dirty things got between the two mighty opposites, voter support for the Liberal Party remained unchanged.

But the Ipsos-Reid poll released today shows that the Canadian public, dismayed by the internecine strife and policy paralysis, is starting to turn away.

Only 41 per cent of Canadians say they would vote Liberal if an election were held tomorrow, down five percentage points in a single month. And this is no rogue poll. A Focus Canada survey last week put the Liberals at 40 per cent, down six points since March.

This still leaves the party safely in majority-government territory. But these numbers should worry the Grits deeply.

"The moorings are starting to rot away," Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker says.

Throughout this summer, the Martin camp has dominated the news and controlled the agenda. But the Chrétien forces finally have their act together, and sources say the counterattack will be launched as early as today. Both sides will go at it hammer and tongs when the caucus meets in Chicoutimi, Que., next week.

How much damage are the Liberals prepared to inflict on themselves? How much further will public support erode?

There are also danger signs for the Grits in the regional breakdown. Here, let us hasten to add, the margin of error is high and numbers need to be treated cautiously.

Nonetheless, the poll shows the Bloc Québécois up seven points to 33 per cent, putting the party within five points of the Grits in Quebec. Unquestionably, the Bloc is gaining.

In Ontario, the Liberals continue to dominate with 56 per cent of the popular vote. But Progressive Conservative support in that province has climbed to 21 per cent from 15 per cent, and this poll was taken after Joe Clark announced his intention to step aside. For the Tories, anything could happen.

The Canadian Alliance remains moribund, at 16 per cent nationally. But although the new Alliance Leader, Stephen Harper, has failed to ignite any enthusiasm, it is hard to imagine him not improving on Stockwell Day's performance in an election. Remember, the opposition needs only to drive the Liberals into minority territory before an Alliance/PC/Bloc coalition starts to emerge as a possible -- if highly unstable -- alternative government.

And if the Liberal numbers erode any further, then potential Tory candidates who currently refuse to get off the sidelines -- especially former Ontario premier Mike Harris and New Brunswick Premier Bernard Lord -- will be increasingly tempted to venture onto the field. Mr. Harris, for example, has said he doesn't want to run for the leadership "of half a party." But what if that party could be a major player in a minority government? What if it actually formed the government?

(As an aside, spies report that Ontario cabinet minister Jim Flaherty, who lost the race for the premiership to Ernie Eves, is thinking hard about running if Mr. Harris does not.)

And let us not forget, the New Democrats are also searching for a new leader. A credible choice could siphon away Liberal votes in Ontario and the West, compounding their troubles.

Mr. Martin's supporters will argue that these numbers emphasize the need for Mr. Chrétien to announce his intentions to step down now, before the situation gets any worse. Mr. Chrétien's people will counter that the poll shows how much damage the Martin campaign is doing, and that now is the time for all good Liberals to come to the aid of the party.

The Martinites will counter back that the poll emphatically shows the population behind their man, and it does -- four out of five Canadians would vote for a Liberal leadership review, given the chance. And by a margin of two to one, they blame Mr. Chrétien for this mess, which is a bit like blaming the captain for the mutiny.

But only Mr. Chrétien can arrest this slide, the Chrétienites will respond, by offering a vigorous and dynamic agenda that will revitalize both the party and the government. But it's the absence of an agenda that is turning people off in the first place, the Martin camp will retort.

Back and forth it will go, while the electorate grinds its teeth.

One Chrétien insider recently suggested that Mr. Chrétien and Mr. Martin each wish the other would pick up the phone and call. For the sake of their party, it's high time one of them did.
jibbitson@globeandmail.ca