VANCOUVER -- In the next 20 years, it is still possible that fuel cell technology will help to revolutionize the transportation sector by replacing the internal combustion engine in both cars and buses.
Ballard Power Systems Inc., the world's leading fuel cell developer, is sticking to previous forecasts that the technology it is preparing for the global automotive sector will be commercially viable by 2010.
But even major players like Burnaby, B.C.-based Ballard say it is more likely the public will be using fuel cells for backup power in their homes and to recharge their laptop computers and cellphones before they are driving around in fuel cell cars.
The mood of caution marks a departure from the rosy predictions made eight years ago when Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG bought a 30-per-cent stake in Ballard, vowing to have 100,000 fuel cell vehicles on the road by 2005.
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The shift can be attributed to a number of factors, including the relatively high cost of fuel cell stacks in comparison to existing technology, the need to ease public concerns about the safety of hydrogen fuel, and the challenge in overcoming regulatory hurdles barring the use of such devices in homes and businesses.
"What is still missing is a fundamental breakthrough on the issue of costs," said Felix Pilorusso, a Toronto auto industry consultant who has written on the subject.
Ballard and its auto industry partners have proven that they can build cars and buses powered by fuel cells that yield electricity, heat and water by catalyzing the reaction of oxygen and hydrogen.
What they have yet to do is produce a fuel cell with the right combination of features that would enable it to fit under the hood of a car, yet still be capable of delivering power, acceleration and durability at a cost that drivers can afford.
The 150 Ballard-powered fuel cell cars and buses that are expected to enter field trials around the world by the end of next year would cost over $1-million each if they were available to be bought in showrooms.
Even if they can deliver on promises to be in a position to start commercial production in 2010, firms like Ballard and General Motors Corp. still face challenges associated with producing the hydrogen fuel.
That includes replacing the existing network of gasoline stations with a hydrogen refuelling infrastructure, at an estimated minimum cost of around $500-million.
Industry analysts are betting that fuel cells are more likely to become widely used in applications such as backup power and cellphone recharging, where convenience takes precedence over the cost of the energy being consumed.
"Widespread adoption of fuel cells, and their long-term commercial viability, depend heavily on their rate of adoption in the portable market," said Jim Balcom, president of PolyFuel Inc., a Mountain View, Calif., maker of fuel cell membranes.
As a result, he said, the rate of commercialization depends on consumer demand for longer run times on their portable devices, and the manufacturing of increasingly power-hungry applications such as wireless connectivity in notebooks, and full-motion video into cellphones.
Portable power applications could operate using disposable cartridges that would provide fuel to the fuel cell, therefore eliminating battery recharge time and reliance on an electricity source.
Meanwhile, Ballard is working on what it terms the commercial launch of one-kilowatt co-generation units that the company is supplying to Tokyo Gas for use as a replacement for a hot water boiler in Japanese homes.
"We have high expectations for this product in the next five years," said Ballard spokesman Mike Rosenberg.
As Japan moves to diversify its energy resources sector by subsidizing the use of the fuel cell power generator, Ballard said it expects to have thousands of co-generation units in the field by 2007, ramping up to tens of thousands by 2008.
'There is a gathering storm that will fundamentally change our way of life.'
DENNIS CAMPBELL CEO OF BALLARD POWER SYSTEMS
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