London — Ferrari's six-time world champion Michael Schumacher finally looks beatable, and his Formula One rivals are daring to say so.
"I think we will definitely have a new champion this year," said Jaguar's Mark Webber. "Michael Schumacher will be deposed."
It almost happened in 2003. Schumacher won two of the last three races, then scraped out eighth-place in the finale in Japan to nip McLaren's Kimi Raikkonen by two points in the season standings. Juan Pablo Montoya of BMW Williams was 11 behind.
"It is going to be a tough year for Michael because the momentum will be with the other two teams," Webber said.
The 2004 season promises to be a watershed when it begins March 7 in Melbourne, Australia, with new qualifying and engine rules for the 18 races. Schumacher may be vulnerable despite Ferrari's $500-million (U.S.) annual budget, but F1's other big teams also have problems.
— Montoya, one of Schumacher's two main challengers, has announced a move from BMW Williams to McLaren beginning in 2005. Questions linger about his motivation.
— BMW Williams also has a problem with second driver Ralf Schumacher, who is embroiled in a pay dispute. He earns about $12-million with reports suggesting he wants $15-million. His brother earns about $50-million. The younger Schumacher says Williams can't afford to lose him and Montoya.
— McLaren Mercedes and Raikkonen are the other threat to Michael Schumacher. Second driver David Coulthard is unhappy and almost certain to leave next season when Montoya joins.
There will be no Jacques Villeneuve on the circuit this year. BAR-Honda opted not to renew the Canadian's contract.
The Canadian Grand Prix was off then on and there will be a race June 13 in Montreal.
New stops for 2004 are set for the Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain and Shanghai, China. India, Turkey and South Korea are ready to enter in the next several years as F1 — facing bans on tobacco advertising — moves away from its traditional European base.
Bernie Ecclestone, the billionaire promoter who runs F1, has announced this is the last season for the venerable San Marino Grand Prix. The Austrian Grand Prix was dropped for 2004 with other history-rich races in Britain, Belgium and France also endangered because of aging facilities and tough tobacco laws.
Formula One has agreed to get rid of tobacco funding by the end of 2006. But the European Union has moved to ban it a year earlier. Five F1 teams rely heavily on tobacco advertising: BAR-Honda, Jordan, McLaren, Renault and Ferrari.
Key changes will be important on and off the track.
— After a season of one-lap qualifying Friday and Saturday, a two-lap system (Saturday only) comes in this year. Drivers will be limited to one engine per race. They'll be demoted 10 positions on the starting grid for using a spare engine.
— In additio to Villeneuve, Heinz-Harald Frentzen, who finished third in the '99 season, is also gone. Three rookies will be on the grid: Christian Klien (Jaguar), Gianmaria Bruni (Minardi) and Giorgio Pantano (Jordan).
The top four teams — Ferrari, BMW Williams, McLaren and Renault — have unchanged lineups. Four teams are expected to be in the second tier — BAR-Honda, Toyota, Sauber and Jaguar — with underfunded Jordan and Minardi simply struggling to survive.
The sport's most glamourous team, Ferrari has experienced unprecedented success in the Schumacher era. In eight seasons with Ferrari, he has won four driver titles and led the Fiat-owned team to five team titles.
Schumacher, who has a contract through 2006, says he's still motivated despite winning 17 of 33 races in the last two seasons.
"I don't know whether I can explain it," he said. "I simply like what I'm doing. And when someone likes what they're doing, it's natural to feel like this."
The German holds almost every significant F1 record including most victories (70) and most season titles (6). Last season he eclipsed Juan Manuel Fangio's record of five world titles.
Another season title in 2004 would make him the first to win five straight. He won in 1994, 1995, 2000, '01, '02 and '03. Fangio won four straight in the 1950s.
Schumacher is Formula One's best wet-weather driver, and no one is better under pressure.
"There's nothing easier than finding yourself in difficult circumstances with the solution in your own hands," he said. "When's it's not in your hands, that's when it's difficult."
The last series champion other than Schumacher was Mika Hakkinen of Finland in 1999. Raikkonen could be next.
"Right now I do not want to speculate how good a chance we have," the 24-year-old said. "So much depends on this new car."
"But one thing is for sure: I am not going to be any slower as a racing driver. The more experience I gain, the quicker I will be. To win the championship I need a very competitive car and also a bit of luck."
Montoya moved to McLaren because he was angry at earning only half as much as Ralf Schumacher. The former Indy 500 and Champ Car series champion, Montoya could get even with Williams by winning the title this season — and leaving.
"It's just like in any other job," Montoya said. "You want it, you get it and then you do it for a certain time trying to give your best. However, at some stage, you have reached the point where you want to try out something new."
