Washington — The Martin government has agreed to sign on to an aerospace early-warning system for North America, smoothing the path for almost certain participation in the U.S. missile defence shield — but the Liberals had hoped to keep it under wraps until after a federal election expected in June.
Sources said yesterday that the Bush administration has been pressing Ottawa for a decision on the warning technology, a crucial stage in Washington's timetable for beginning deployment of missile defence systems in California and Alaska this fall.
The Martin government's willingness to take this interim step was made clear to Washington in the past two weeks, sources say. It comes on the eve of tomorrow's White House meeting between Prime Minister Paul Martin and President George W. Bush, where missile defence is not on the official agenda.
Ottawa's decision means that the warning technology, an expansion of an existing system and designed to track incoming missiles, will be operated by NORAD, the joint military organization that has its headquarters in Colorado. Otherwise, responsibility would have gone to a U.S. military command, likely sidelining NORAD in the overall missile defence program — including decisions on the launching of missiles if North America is attacked.
The federal government is keen to maintain the North American Aerospace Defence Command, since it gives Canada influence beyond its military resources in terms of continental defence policy.
But officials say it is not likely to confirm the decision before an election because Martin government strategists fear the missile defence issue. It is "a vote loser," acknowledged an adviser who supports Canadian involvement.
The decision on the early-warning system does not commit Ottawa to participate in the entire missile defence program. But sources suggested yesterday that participation is essentially a foregone conclusion, and that the only real issue now is timing.
"This step is not sufficient [to decide the overall matter], but it is necessary to do so," one official said.
The missile defence negotiations are well advanced. It is already decided, for example, that interceptor rocket launchers are not needed on Canadian soil — a prospect that Defence Minister David Pratt raised in February. Canada's role likely will be minor beyond the military participating in decision-making at NORAD.
Mr. Bush is four-square behind the missile defence system and has made deployment a crucial plank in his re-election strategy.
The training of U.S. military officers is under way — a factor in the timing of Ottawa's recent decision, because Canadian military officials at NORAD have not taken part alongside their U.S. colleagues in preparations. That should now change, at least for some training.
"Missile defence is going forward, one way or the other," a U.S. official said.
"Canada's role is no doubt tied up in your electoral politics."
The first rudimentary pieces of the system designed to shoot down incoming missiles are scheduled to go into operation this September or October with the basing of interceptor rockets at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
Formal negotiations between Washington and Ottawa began in January, with an exchange of letters between Mr. Pratt and his U.S. counterpart, Donald Rumsfeld.
Although the Martin government said that participation was far from a fait accompli, the correspondence stated that the talks had "the objective of including Canada in the current U.S. missile defence program."
Recent studies by the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Defence Department have provided a mixed assessment concerning the advisability of missile defence and Canadian participation.
One report suggested that, while the threat to Canada from ballistic missiles is currently considered low, the threat in future years could increase as the range and accuracy of missile technology available to "proliferators" changes.
Another study suggested that the deployment of a missile defence system would reinforce trends toward the eventual deployment of weapons in space — something that the Canadian government vigorously opposes and that Foreign Minister Bill Graham has sought to ban through negotiation of a new international treaty.
