Ottawa — Paul Martin's once-mighty Liberals can now count on almost no safe seats outside Toronto and western Montreal, as a new poll indicates their lead in Atlantic Canada has melted away and they face a historic rout in Quebec.
Nationally, the Liberals have maintained a slim, 32-31 lead over the Conservatives among decided voters. The numbers are an indication that their strategy of attacking the Conservatives on issues like abortion and gay marriage has arrested their slide in Ontario at the expense of the NDP. The third-place party stands at 16 per cent in the poll.
But the shifting regional breakdown suggests the Conservatives could win more seats, giving them a minority government with the Bloc Quιbιcois as king-makers — an arrangement that 61 per cent of respondents deem "unacceptable."
The Ipsos-Reid poll of 2,003 Canadians conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV was taken between June 4 and 8, as the Liberals began warning that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper would be willing to override the Charter of Rights and Freedoms if the Supreme Court overturned a free vote in Parliament to ban abortion or gay marriage.
That strategy, and the rising belief that the Conservatives could win the election, appears to be polarizing voters in Ontario.
There, the Liberals jumped eight points to lead the Conservatives 40-35. The poll shows the NDP dropping six percentage points, to 17 per cent, in Ontario.
But the Liberals' lead is concentrated in Toronto and Northern Ontario and they are neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in the rest of the province.
However, winning votes on the left mostly bolsters the Liberals where they were already strong, so an Ipsos-Reid seat-projection model forecasts it would mean few seats. "It seems to be a bit of a polarization, but it really doesn't seem to be to the advantage of the Liberals," said Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker.
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However, Mr. Martin called the strategy a winner when he spoke to reporters during the summit of leaders of G8 countries in Sea Island, Ga. He said the 36-day campaign, which reached its mid-point last night, is "into the playoffs."
"I think we are doing exactly the right thing," he said, adding that the election "is going to be decided on the basis of the values of the respective parties."
An Ipsos-Reid seat projection based on the poll forecasts that the Conservatives would win 114 to 118 seats, and the Liberals 104 to 108. The Bloc would hold the balance of power with 61 to 65 — a role that would be beyond the reach of the NDP, with 21 to 25 seats. It will take 155 seats to win a majority in the new, 308-seat Commons.
Mr. Bricker said that across the country, the Liberals have almost no havens outside Toronto and western Montreal, and they are in a tight race with the Conservatives in many regions where small shifts could decide the winner.
The poll found a coast-to-coast battle, with sharp regional differences:
Mr. Harper, meanwhile, is expected to concentrate his campaign in Ontario. "Well, I'm here in Barrie, but, if anything, we are probably shifting our general efforts more to areas that we probably didn't think we would win earlier on. I'm getting very confident about south-central Ontario," he said yesterday.For Mr. Martin, the poll results not only mean he will have to devote more time to Ontario and Quebec, but that he faces high pressure to win next week's leaders debates.The battle in Quebec could prove the most humiliating for Mr. Martin, who in the 2000 Liberal campaign helped to fend off the Bloc. "They [the Liberals] are about to get pummelled," Mr. Bricker said.
Now, his personal approval ratings are lower in Quebec than in any other region, including Alberta. Thirty per cent say he would make the best prime minister, compared with 20 per cent each for Mr. Harper and Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe. "He's just not connecting with people," one prominent Quebec Liberal said.
Perhaps more dangerous for the Liberals' hopes of a turnaround in Quebec is that voters there — unlike the rest of Canada — are open to the prospect of the Bloc supporting a Conservative minority.
The poll found 53 per cent of those surveyed considered a Conservative minority supported by the Bloc "acceptable." That is despite a Liberal strategy pushed by Mr. Martin's Quebec lieutenant, Jean Lapierre, of raising concerns among Bloc supporters that the Conservatives would adopt an anti-Quebec program.
"They're voting for the Bloc. And they figure the Bloc's going to keep everybody in check," Mr. Bricker said. "You can't scare them about the Bloc having power in a national government, because the majority of the public thinks that's an acceptable outcome in Quebec."
In the rest of Canada, however, a majority in every region say it would be "unacceptable" for the Conservatives to form a minority government with the support of the Bloc.
A majority of those surveyed (57 per cent) said it would be acceptable to have a Liberal minority government supported by the NDP, and only in Alberta did a majority consider that prospect unacceptable.
The poll is considered accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
With reports from Drew Fagan in Savannah, Ga., and Jane Taber in Barrie, Ont.
