Liberal advisers had insisted that the Conservative Leader's momentum had stalled in Ontario just as the two men prepared to focus their final struggle on dozens of ridings in that province that could decide the winner of the June 28 election.
But an instant survey of 2,107 Canadians who watched last night's English-language debate suggests Mr. Martin did not reignite the Liberal campaign with his performance, as 37 per cent said they believed Mr. Harper was the winner, compared to 24 per cent for Mr. Martin. Another 18 per cent said NDP Leader Jack Layton won.
(The Ipsos-Reid poll was conducted on the Internet with a pre-arranged sample of Canadians who said they are likely to vote. It is considered accurate within 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)
"If Paul Martin was going to deliver new momentum for his campaign, it didn't happen tonight," said Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker.
The survey found Mr. Martin was the only party leader whose standing with viewers went down -- more said their impression of him worsened than improved -- while the other three all improved in the eyes of viewers. Mr. Harper won on every measure, including his ideas and his debating style, while Mr. Martin was ranked fourth on style, behind Mr. Duceppe.
The Liberal and Conservative leaders came out of the debate in a near-tie for best prime minister, with Mr. Martin getting 38 per cent and Mr. Harper 36 per cent. Mr. Layton was chosen by 14 per cent of the respondents and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe by 6 per cent.
Thirty-five per cent of respondents said Mr. Harper offered the best ideas and policies, 27 per cent said the same of Mr. Layton and Mr. Martin got only 26 per cent.
However, the poll showed the debate will likely not spark massive change: 81 per cent said it will not change their vote.
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But Mr. Bricker said the fact that all three other leaders were aiming most of their attacks at Mr. Martin meant that he needed to land heavy blows to win. "We saw three leaders against one. He did well when he got his chance, but he was getting pummelled all night long -- and it shows," he said.
The Liberal and Conservative leaders now plan to spend much of the 12 remaining days of the election campaign rolling through the dozens of ridings in central and southwestern Ontario that could still go either way.
Mr. Layton, who spent last night's debate firing more at Mr. Harper than at Mr. Martin, will fly into hot spots across the country that his party could win, and move to shore up support in NDP seats that could fall in a close two-horse race.
Liberal insiders said Mr. Martin will return to his health-care message, including cuts to waiting lists. He will also focus heavily on the economy.
Mr. Martin also plans to warn that Mr. Harper's plans to cut aid for industry could threaten Southern Ontario's manufacturing jobs, especially in the auto sector.
That will be combined with ads warning Mr. Harper has a right-wing agenda of military buildup and possibly a reversal of abortion rights.
Liberal campaign advisers insist Mr. Harper's momentum stalled in Ontario, as the Conservatives have been unable to win strong support from women voters, who they believe are sensitive to the charges, like those Mr. Martin made last night, that Mr. Harper would endanger abortion rights and took a hawkish stand on the Iraq war.
Mr. Martin is expected to also make trips to the West and Atlantic Canada in a bid to keep existing Liberal support there, and a few "Montreal-centric" forays into Quebec.
But with the Liberals far behind the Bloc in Quebec, and unlikely to pick up great momentum after Monday's French-language debate, they will focus on Ontario as their best hope to retain even a minority government.
Mr. Martin will tour the smaller centres of Ontario for the next two days and much of the last 12 -- starting today with events in Brantford, Cambridge and Waterloo. Mr. Harper will also spend the next two days in Ontario, hoping to upset Liberal incumbents such as Susan Whelan in Essex, outside Windsor, and take seats in the Niagara region.
The Southwestern Ontario swing also demonstrates the Conservative party feels good about its chances in portions of Ontario where it has traditionally done well -- Mr. Harper has not visited eastern Ontario since the first week of the campaign.
His message will also shift in week four, from last week's heavy policy focus to again attacking Mr. Martin. Advisers said he needs to continue shaking Canadians' confidence in the prime minister.
Mr. Harper will then head into Quebec in an effort to build on double-digit support in a few ridings, visiting Quebec City, Drummondville and Cowansville -- and holding out faint hopes for some Quebec representation should he win government. Finally, Mr. Harper will head to Newfoundland on Saturday in an effort to bolster the campaigns of candidates there.
Mr. Layton, meanwhile, will take to the air, travelling to the West today to target ridings where the New Democrats are in tight races.
"It's a combination of strengths and where we're planning on growing," said NDP campaign adviser Donne Flanagan.
Mr. Layton will first stop in Winnipeg to help incumbent MP Pat Martin in a tough battle, before heading to Vancouver Island where the New Democrats are in close races with the Conservatives in two seats.
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