Walking into a minority Commons to deliver a life-or-death budget focuses the mind of any finance minister.
But an election-weary opposition had already given Jim Flaherty a reprieve by suggesting that its members would defeat his budget and Stephen Harper's government only if it committed high crimes and misdemeanours.
In the end, the Bloc Québécois decided its best hope was to try him for treason next time.
Mr. Flaherty tried a sop to the New Democrats seeking their support, enough to win a Commons vote by a hair, by reviving some of the budget deal they struck with the Liberals last year. He blunted Liberal criticisms by halving the one-percentage-point increase in the lowest tax bracket, although everyone doubts the leaderless Liberals would have the heart to campaign against the budget now.
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But the cost of printing a 142-page booklet on the fiscal imbalance, entitled Restoring Fiscal Balance in Canada, was the only investment in political survival Mr. Flaherty needed this year.
Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe had seen the most important number for his party even before he had a peek at the budget: A CROP poll put the Conservatives at 34 per cent in Quebec, three percentage points ahead of the Bloc, with the Liberals mired at 15 per cent.
It reinforced the shell shock the Bloc have been suffering since the Tories ate into their base in the last election campaign, gaining 10 seats, and killing the Bloc's hopes of a record tally.
Yesterday, Mr. Duceppe walked straight out to the Commons foyer to tell reporters that his party will support the budget. The pledge to settle the fiscal imbalance next year was enough to win support for a budget that was otherwise borderline, he said.
"The real budget will be next year, not this year," Mr. Duceppe bluntly observed.
The Conservative budget made that a better prospect for the Bloc. It projects an unallocated surplus of $1.4-billion for next year -- a far cry from the billions that the Bloc, and even federalist Liberals in Quebec, expect from a settlement for the so-called fiscal imbalance, a touchstone political issue in the province.
Unless the Tories cut spending, or record more in unexpected surpluses, that kind of money will not be available. The big promise that won Bloc support this year could give the same party an opportunity to claim betrayal next year.
Presumably, New Democrat Leader Jack Layton had guessed the Bloc's plan. He quickly announced his party would vote against the budget because it cut corporate taxes instead of spending money on daycare, the environment, and employment insurance.
It allowed the leader who forced the election to avoid more blame from the left for the Tory government. It also forced the Tories to survive on separatist support.
Mr. Harper and his Finance Minister tried, but failed, to curry NDP support by reviving $3.3-billion in spending authorized under last year's Liberal-NDP deal, placing the one-time money into four trusts for public transit, low-cost housing, aboriginal housing and northern housing.
The Liberals, who don't know which of a dozen contenders will lead them into the next election, are even more adrift in Quebec than are the Bloc. They will vote against the budget, and criticize insufficient funds for aboriginals and child care, and the increase in the income-tax rate. The Bloc support allows them to claim that the Tories are allying with separatists, and to avoid an election they don't want.
The Tories effectively won a budget deal on a promise. And the Bloc are echoing the favourite phrase of teams that can't win in this season: Wait till next year.
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