OTTAWA — Sending tanks to fight Taliban insurgents could cause problems both in Afghanistan and at home, especially if some of the troops involved are drawn from units in Quebec, experts warned Tuesday.
A Montreal political scientist said if there are casualties from Quebec, Stephen Harper and his Conservatives could pay a heavy price in political support in a province already deeply opposed to the war.
In addition, the grim appearance and destructive power of up to 15 Leopard tanks has the potential to further alienate Afghans already suspicious of foreign troops, said experts in counter-insurgency warfare.
A proposal to send reinforcements, including tanks, to a war-torn country where the Canadian army has met stiff resistance, will be debated this week by the federal cabinet. It's been suggested some of the troops could be drawn from units in Valcartier, Que.
Members of the famed Royal 22nd Regiment — the fighting Van Doos — are scheduled to ship out to Afghanistan next year as part of a planned rotation. Moving up deployment of other Quebec units could create a political problem for Harper if there are casualties among them.
Thirty-two Canadian troops have been killed since the Afghan mission began in 2002.
In fact, CBC's The National reported Tuesday that 125 members of the Van Doos will be deployed to Afghanistan by month's-end. The troops leave for Wainwright, Alta., this week, then they're off to Kandahar to provide protection for military and civilian reconstruction efforts, said the CBC.
The Van Doos have served in Afghanistan before, but that was in the north. This would be the first time they would be deployed in the dangerous southern territory.
Pierre Martin, a political science professor at the University of Montreal, said casualties among Quebec-based troops would bring the war more into focus in Quebec.
“It will hit home much more strongly,” he said. “When the bodies go back to Joliette, Lac-St-Jean or wherever these people come from, in Quebec you'll see the regional media covering it more deeply. In Quebec, where you don't see that much support (for the war), this might translate into less-muted opposition.
“There will be people increasingly concerned about the human cost of the intervention. Over time it won't get any easier.”
Experts in guerrilla wars say, from a conventional military point of view, the decision to send tanks makes sense, especially if the Taliban mass for conventional-style battles as they did recently in the Panjwaii district, southwest of Kandahar.
But there is a danger that the appearance of heavy armour in the chalky, mud-walled villages and towns will backfire in the battle for Afghan hearts and minds.
“If you see tanks in your streets it's hard not to think about it as an army of occupation,” said Gavin Cameron, a specialist in counter-insurgency wars at the University of Calgary's Centre for Military and Strategic Studies.
By buttoning down inside a tank, Canadian soldiers could also end up losing personal contact with locals, which is crucial in building public support.
The firepower of the Leopards also has the potential to create a backlash among Afghans who've already complained about civilian casualties and destruction of property.
“As with any modern armaments, there's a considerable destructive potential and the forces using them have to be careful and conscious of the scope” of their use, Mr. Cameron said in an interview.
The 42.5-tonne Leopard carries a 105-mm cannon, as well as machineguns.
Since cabinet hasn't approved any proposal, the army was reluctant to talk about potential ramifications.
“As part of prudent contingency planning, the army is conducting staff checks to determine what additional personnel and equipment could made available for augmentation of ongoing operations or commitment to new operations,” said Maj. Daryl Morrell
“We're not in a place where we can discuss further details of our planning at this time.”
Calls to Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor's office were not returned.
The deployment of tanks would have to go hand in hand with renewed efforts to rebuild infrastructure and deliver humanitarian aid, said Andrew Krepinevich Jr., a former U.S. Army officer.
“Quite frankly I think the (Afghan people) are more likely to judge us on whether we're improving their quality of life or not,” said Mr. Krepinevich, who written and lectured extensively on guerrilla war.
“When the Taliban mass for attacks you do need something, but what I would want to know from the Canadian government is what kind of role to they see the tanks playing in southern Afghanistan and how well suited are they to that role.”
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