The temptation, when selecting your hockey-pool team for the upcoming 2006-07 season, is ponder last year's scoring totals, discover that two players — the San Jose Sharks' Joe Thornton and the New York Rangers' Jaromir Jagr — were head-and-shoulders above the rest of the competition; and rank them 1-2 again.
Theoretically, the problem with this strategy is it flies against the face of recent history. Over the past couple of years, the National Hockey League's scoring champion one season, had a difficult time cracking the top 30 the next. Consider that back in 2002, the Calgary Flames' Jarome Iginla won the scoring title with 96 points (and only two others, Markus Naslund and Todd Bertuzzi) recorded more than 80 points that season. You'd think Iginla would have been a lock for a top-30 spot the next year — but you'd have been wrong.
He managed just 67 points, miles behind the eventual scoring champion, Colorado's Peter Forsberg, who managed one of his rare healthy seasons that year and produced 106 points in 75 games. Of course, in 2004, Forsberg was nowhere to be seen again. He made only 39 appearances and while managing a hefty 55 points in that time, it was the Tampa Bay Lightning's Martin St. Louis who won the scoring title, managing 94 points in 82 games in the final pre-lockout season. Logically, with the new rules in place and all that extra open ice, a player of St. Louis's speed and stature should have embraced the obstruction-free NHL of 2005-06 and gone on to even bigger and better things - but no. St. Louis fell off the face of the earth, dropping to just 61 points (and with scoring up last year, it took 79 scoring points to crack the top 30).
So what does that mean for Thornton? It's hard to say. At 27, he should be in his prime. He was spectacularly successful after joining the Sharks in a mid-season trade with the Bruins (92 points in 58 games would have left him tied for 11th in the scoring race with Atlanta's Marian Hossa, even if he hadn't managed 33 points in 23 games with Boston prior to the trade). Thornton has Jonathan Cheechoo back on one wing and Mark Bell penciled in on the other side, replacing Nils Ekman, who was traded to Pittsburgh and will now tag along with Sidney Crosby on the Penguins' top line.
Or that's how it's shaping up in training camp anyway. There is always a danger in selecting a player just because he's starting the season playing on a top line because quicker than you can say mini-slump, coaches start to juggle and what looked like a promising pick in October (yes we mean you Brandon Bochenski) turns out to be a disaster.
In Calgary, for example, somebody will get to play centre with Iginla and Alex Tanguay, the latter of whom has been one of the most consistent point-producers of the past half-dozen seasons. But will it be Matthew Lombardi, who will get the first look there? Jamie Lundmark? Daymond Langkow? Or will Tanguay eventually switch to the middle and open up a spot on the left side for speedy Jeff Friesen (Iginla had his most productive NHL season with the lightning-fast Dean McAmmond opening up the ice for him and Craig Conroy)? No one can say for sure, in these early days of training camp, and that's what makes it so fun and unpredictable.
Here, then, is our annual projection of how the top 200 may unfold — and the No. 1 spot went to Jagr, solely because of his pedigree (even though it is troubling to hear that his shoulder, injured in last year's playoffs, was giving him difficulty in the early days of camp). The reality is, since the 1993-94 season, Jagr has finished in the top 10 of NHL scoring 10 times in 12 years, winning five scoring titles and finishing second twice. In an ever-changing era, that's about as consistent as it gets — and makes him the easy No. 1 choice.
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1. Jagr, NYR 2. J. Thornton, SJ. 3. Ovechkin, Was. 4. Crosby, Pit. 5. Hossa, Atl. 6. Kovalchuk, Atl. 7. Forsberg, Pha. 8. Alfredsson, Ott. 9. Richards, Tpa. 10. Elias, NJ. 11. Heatley, Ott. 12. Iginla, Cgy. 13. M. Naslund, Van. 14. O. Jokinen, Fla. 15. E. Staal, Car. 16. Spezza, Ott. 17. Gaborik, Min. 18. Zetterberg, Det. 19. Sakic, Col. 20. St. Louis, Tpa. 21. Tanguay, Cgy. 22. Datsyuk, Det. 23. Sundin, Tor. 24. Bertuzzi, Fla. 25. Marleau, SJ. 26. Modano, Dal. 27. Nash, Cls. 28. Gagne, Pha. 29. Cheechoo, SJ. 30. Lecavalier, Tpa. 31. Havlat, Chi. 32. Demitra, Min. 33. Briere, Buf. 34. Horcoff, Edm. 35. Gomez, NJ. 36. Bergeron, Bos. 37. Hemsky, Edm. 38. Selanne, Ana. 39. Rolston, Min. 40. Lang, Det. 41. M. Savard, Bos. 42. Kariya, Nas. 43. Malkin, Pit. 44. D. Sedin, Van. 45. H. Sedin, Van. 46. Shanahan, NYR. 47. Gionta, NJ. 48. Nagy, Pho. 49. Kovalev, Mon. 50. Cole, Car. 51. Doan, Pho. 52. McDonald, Ana. 53. Arnott, Nsh. 54. Hedjuk, Col. 55. Fedorov, Clb. 56. Tkachuk, StL. 57. Yashin, NYI. 58. G. Murray, Bos. 59. Prospal, TB. 60. Sullivan, Nas. 61. Satan, NYI. 62. Sturm, Bos. 63. Weight, StL. 64. Modin, Clb. 65. Knuble, Phi. 66. Morrow, Dal. 67. Frolov, LA. |
68. Zednik, Was. 69. Brind'Amour, Car. 70. Lidstrom, Det. 71. Straka, NYR. 72. Langkow, Cgy. 73. Afinogenov, Buf. 74. Svatos, Col. 75. Ju. Williams, Car. 76. Koivu, Mtl. 77. Nylander, NYR. 78. Horton, Fla. 79. Drury, Buf. 80. Ryder, Mon. 81. Conroy, LA. 82. Lehtinen, Dal. 83. Smyth, Edm. 84. Gonchar, Pit. 85. Boyes, Bos. 86. Brunette, Col. 87. S. Kozlov, Atl. 88. Zubov, Dal. 89. Comrie, Pho. 90. Samsonov, Mon. 91. Ekman, Pit. 92. Hecht, Buf. 93. S. Niedermayer, Ana. 94. Bell, SJ. 95. Bouchard, Min. 96. Morrison, Van. 97. Lupul, Edm. 98. Handzus, Chi. 99. McCabe, Tor. 100. Pitkanen, Pha. 101. Holmstrom, Det. 102. Timmonen, Nas. 103. Vyborny, Cls. 104. Reinprecht, Pho. 105. Pronger, Ana. 106. J. Jokinen, Dal. 107. J. Nieuwendyk, Fla. 108. Huselius, Cgy. 109. Boyle, Tpa. 110. Langenbrunner, NJ. 111. Stoll, Edm. 112. A. Carter, Cls. 113. R. Blake, LA. 114. Cammalleri, LA. 115. Calder, Phi. 116. Parrish, Min. 117. Recchi. Pit. 118. Prucha, NYR. 119. Ribeiro, Mon. 120. Erat, Nsh. 121. Torres, Edm. 122. Lindros, Dal. 123. Tucker, Tor. 124. Fedotenko, TB. 125. T. Ruutu, Chi. 126. Higgins, Mon. 127. Visnovsky, LA. 128. Vanek, Buf. 129. T. Kaberle, Tor. 130. J. Blake, NYI. 131. Roberts, Fla. 132. Ponikarovsky, Tor. 133. Fisher, Ott. 134. Bulis, Van. |
135. Whitney, Car. 136. Ma. Cullen, NYR. 137. Liles, Col. 138. M. Michalek, SJ. 139. Redden, Ott. 140. Schneider, Det. 141. Schaefer, Ott. 142. Pisani, Edm. 143. Legwand, Nas. 144. Hartnell, Nas. 145. Steen, Tor. 146. J. Carter, Pha. 147. C. Armstrong, Pit. 148. Holik, Atl. 149. Malone, Pit. 150. P. Sykora, Edm. 151. M. Richards, Pha. 152. Bernier, SJ. 153. Jovanovski, Pho. 154. N. Antropov, Tor. 155. Kesler, Van. 156. Draper, Det. 157. Chara, Bos. 158. Cajanek, StL. 159. Lombardi, Cgy. 160. Zidlicky, Nas. 161. Boucher, Dal. 162. Getzlaf, Ana. 163. Markov, Mtl. 164. Brown, LA. 165. Phaneuf, Cgy. 166. Kotalik, Buf 167. Rafalski, NJ 168. Mara, Bos. 169. Zubrus, Was. 170. Samuelsson, Det. 171. Weiss, Fla. 172. Aucoin, Chi. 173. Arkhipov, Chi. 174. York, NYI. 175. Wolski, Col. 176. Bouwmeester, Fla. 177. Penner, Ana. 178. Ladd, Car. 179. Vasicek, Nas. 180. Gratton, Fla. 181. Ja. Williams, Det. 182. Stumpel, Fla. 183. Kessel, Bos. 184. Preissing, Ott. 185. LeClair, Pit. 186. Semin, Was. 187. Kaigorodov, Ott. 188. Stuart, Bos. 189. Roenick, Pho. 190. Guerin, StL. 191. Parise, NJ. 192. Eaves, Ott. 193. Smolinski, Chi. 194. O'Sullivan, LA. 195. Nolan, Pho. 196. Brule, Cls. 197. Arnason, Col. 198. Walker, Car. 199. C. Clark, Was. 200. M. Johnson, Mtl. |
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