MONTREAL — The most wide-open Liberal leadership convention in a generation opened Wednesday with a backroom battle for third place, the outcome of which delegates say will ultimately determine the winner.
The nearly deadlocked fight for third between Gerard Kennedy and Stéphane Dion is crucial to determining the shifts in a convention where none of the four major contenders appears to have clear momentum.
The fourth-place finisher will be the first major contender to drop off the ballot, leaving more than 15 per cent of the convention delegates looking for a second choice.
The race between Mr. Kennedy and Mr. Dion is so tight that delegates from the two camps teamed up Wednesday to change the rules in the unlikely event of a tie. The old rules said that if two candidates are locked together for last place, both are knocked out, but the change now means a tied vote would be repeated.
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At stake is the leadership of a party that now sees itself with a realistic chance of winning back power only a year after an election defeat.
Front-runner Michael Ignatieff dismissed anonymous “Stop Iggy” attack pamphlets as undemocratic and un-Liberal. His senior advisers accused the campaign of second-place candidate Bob Rae of being responsible. Mr. Rae's campaign denied it, while Mr. Rae pointed to polls to claim he has the best chance of winning an election.
But the two top contenders have polarized camps and, according to polls of delegates, they each have weak potential for growth on the second ballot.
So the third-place finisher could emerge as a compromise choice — or the supporters of the fourth-place finisher could hand victory to Mr. Ignatieff or Mr. Rae.
Advisers to both Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. Rae said they hope for Mr. Dion to drop off first. Mr. Ignatieff's campaign believes it can win many of Mr. Dion's Quebec delegates, while Mr. Rae views Mr. Dion as a competitor for anti-Ignatieff votes.
Mr. Kennedy's Ontario co-chair, MP Mark Holland, underscored the importance of finishing third, saying that in a convention where many delegates remain undecided about their second choice, the momentum will be decided when the fourth-place finisher drops off the ballot.
“I think that when one of the major candidates moves, with 20 per cent or more, that's really when you're going to have a sense of how this convention's going to go,” he said.
“I think it's going to be the speeches, it's going to be how the candidates handle all the pressure, the conversations in the hallways, the buzz.”
Mr. Kennedy, the only top-four candidate who opposed a House of Commons motion to recognize the Québécois as a nation, is also hoping that his position will give him a boost among Liberals who do not like the nation idea, and keep him solidly ahead of Mr. Dion.
“It's come into clarity for people. It's funny, you know. It's been that kind of campaign where we haven't had issues to show people's character, and then there was one this week that helped.”
Polls suggest Mr. Dion has the largest reservoir of second-choice support, but it will mean nothing if he cannot leap over Mr. Kennedy for third.
The Kennedy and Dion campaigns have had extensive talks about an alliance that would mean whoever comes out on top would join the other. But insiders said the deal was not done, in part because the two men cannot agree on how many ballots will pass before one must support the other.
Mr. Kennedy enters the convention with 17 per cent of the elected delegates, just ahead of Mr. Dion's 16 per cent. Mr. Dion's campaign claims it has stronger support among the 880 party officials who have automatic votes, but Mr. Kennedy's team argues more of their delegates will attend.
Mark Marissen, Mr. Dion's campaign manager, challenged the view that their campaign will have lower turnout and weak organization on the ground. He cited early registration figures showing that by 1:30 Wednesday afternoon, Mr. Ignatieff had 295 of committed delegates registered, Mr. Dion 294, Mr. Rae 192 and Mr. Kennedy 95.
“People will come to me because I have the clearest vision, a better action plan, a better capacity to communicate it with passion and to keep the country strong and united,” Mr. Dion said. “I don't believe in machinations. I believe in convictions.”
Mr. Rae — who worked convention-hall rooms, shaking hands and delivering his closing sales pitch, much as his rivals were doing — put heavy emphasis on his experience as a politician, saying delegates should take stock of the candidates' judgment.
At one point, Mr. Rae bumped into and shook hands with former prime minister Paul Martin, who also visited with other candidates. Mr. Martin's tenure as Liberal leader will be feted at the convention Thursday night.
