MONTREAL — Gerard Kennedy's advisers had the right campaign strategy. They just didn't have the right numbers.
All week, the people running Mr. Kennedy's campaign for the leadership of the Liberal Party said the candidate who placed third on Friday's first ballot would ultimately win the race.
Their candidate was solidly in third — by 67 votes — based on delegate-selection voting in September. And they were buoyed by Mr. Kennedy's well-received speech and by the fact that many people thought that Stéphane Dion had not done well in his address, which was cut short by time limitations.
But the first ballot was a shocker, with Mr. Dion ahead by two votes. It was a virtual tie but it allowed the former federal cabinet minister to claim third-place bragging rights.
Leadership candidate Gerard Kennedy sides with Stephane Dion after second ballot results at the Liberal Leadership Convention on Saturday (CP)
Mr. Dion built on that momentum in the second ballot, pushing his margin over Mr. Kennedy to 90 votes. Worse, for the Kennedy camp, was that the collapse of Michael Ignatieff's campaign was not happening.
Mr. Kennedy looked at the results of the second ballot and concluded that he didn't have enough momentum to justify staying on for another vote. He would try to be a kingmaker rather than the king.
Just 20 minutes after the results were announced, Mr. Kennedy made the slow walk to where Mr. Dion was seated and told his rival that he was dropping out of the race to lead the Liberal Party.
“I've got a campaign that believes in the renewal of the party, it believes in giving Canadians a clear choice next time,” Mr. Kennedy said. “Closest to me, Stéphane Dion articulates that for the party. My obligation is not to stay on in any faint hope, or even a reasonable hope, but to deliver that renewal. . . . He is in a better position than me.”
Mr. Dion said he was delighted to receive the support not only of Mr. Kennedy, but also of Liberal MP Mark Holland and of Justin Trudeau, the son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau.
“Gerard's action is a great one because it was very difficult for him. He had a great campaign and it would have been possible for him to stay longer, and he still made a very difficult decision for the party and the country. He is a great Canadian,” Mr. Dion said.
Mr. Kennedy gained marginally on the second ballot, picking up 30 ballots, but Mr. Dion added 118 votes.
Kennedy organizers had hoped that perhaps three-quarters of their delegates would follow their candidate's lead and support Mr. Dion.
It appears they underestimated. Mr. Kennedy attracted 884 votes on the second ballot. Mr. Dion gained 808 delegates between the second and third ballots.
Ken Dryden's 219 delegates were also up for grabs but he chose to support Mr. Rae on the third ballot and many in his camp appeared to be following suit.
Mr. Dion and Mr. Kennedy had talked all week about various scenarios. There was no official deal that one would throw support to the other but it was clear within minutes of the second-ballot results being announced what Mr. Kennedy had to do.
David MacNaughton, chair of the Kennedy campaign, said the crucial factor was that front-runner Michael Ignatieff did not lose support on the second ballot as he had hoped he would. In fact, he picked up 69 more votes while retaining his commanding lead over second-place finisher Bob Rae.
Mr. MacNaughton concluded that the small gain Mr. Ignatieff made would allow him to retain his delegates for a third ballot. And without those defections, Mr. Kennedy did not have the support needed to pass Mr. Dion.
“We picked up some but we didn't pick up enough so at the end of the day it just wasn't there,” the campaign chair said.
He repeated that there was no specific deal with the Dion camp but that Mr. Kennedy and his team understood what had to happen.
Mr. MacNaughton said he had a very brief conversation with the candidate. “I just said to him I didn't think we could make up the difference,” he said.
He also talked of his worries about Kennedy supporters jumping to other candidates. “I didn't want him to be on the next ballot and have him shrink,” he said.
Mr. MacNaughton said he found the results disappointing but that he believes Mr. Kennedy ran “a great campaign.”
He cited two reasons for the defeat. First, he said the campaign did not put enough resources into Quebec. Mr. Kennedy, a former Ontario cabinet minister, had no experience or machine in the province, but Mr. MacNaughton believes there were enough constituencies where small groups elected delegates that could have been targeted.
He said that if Mr. Kennedy would have been in a contending position if had been able pick up 10 per cent of Quebec's delegates.
Mr. MacNaughton also said the candidate suffered from being an outsider to the federal scene because he didn't pick up enough support from ex officio delegates – MPs, senators, riding presidents and party executives.
Mr. Kennedy was supported by 13 MPs.
Mr. MacNaughton said principles and not practicalities underlay Mr. Kennedy's decision to throw his support to Mr. Dion.
The two men, strangers when the leadership race began last spring, have come to know and respect each other, he said. He said Mr. Kennedy concluded after the first ballot that he could be comfortable supporting Mr. Dion if that the scenario that presented itself.
“They're both principled guys,” Mr. MacNaughton said. “There was never any discussion, for instance about, ‘well, I come and support you and what are you going to do for me'?” There was none of that.”
That understanding was illustrated when the two men met in neutral territory just before the second-ballot results were announced. Mr. Kennedy described it as a warm moment between two friendly rivals.
“We have a good, strong mutual respect,” he said as he went back to his seat to await the results doomed his candidacy.
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