5
BEIRUT — Wednesday's assassination of anti-Syria parliamentarian Walid Eido and nine others in a powerful car bombing along the Beirut seafront promises to catapult Lebanon into an ever-greater cycle of violence that many see as linked to regional actors and dynamics. The timing and context of Mr. Eido's death may both be significant, and surely spell more dark days ahead for Lebanon and the Middle East.
Two theories quickly spread after the attack. One accused Damascus of killing Mr. Eido as part of a string of assassinations and bombings seeking to destabilize Lebanon in the wake of the Syrians' forced departure more than two years ago. A more novel view charged that Washington is indirectly fomenting strife in the entire region — there was also terrible violence in Iraq and the Palestinian territories Wednesday — as a means of forcing Arab governments to seek U.S. support to fight groups supported by Syria and Iran.
The reality is, it's unclear who's behind this killing and other attacks in Lebanon. But they all seem increasingly connected in a spiral of political violence that now defines much of the region.
This assassination is doubly troubling because Mr. Eido was the first prominent Sunni assassinated since former prime minister Rafik Hariri was killed in similar fashion in February of 2005. The other prominent politicians and journalists killed or injured in bombings have been Christians who were openly critical of Damascus, which is why many Lebanese reflexively see Syrian hands behind these killings. The Syrian government vehemently denies any involvement, but it has rejected the United Nations-mandated international tribunal that formally came into force on Monday to try those accused in the killings of Mr. Hariri and others.
Related Articles
Some Lebanese politicians accused Syria and its allies in Beirut of killing parliamentarians and cabinet ministers in order to whittle away at the pro-government majority in parliament, and to keep the country in a state of instability so Damascus can reassert its dominance.
A few prominent pro-government ministers and deputies openly accused isolated President Emile Lahoud of being equally guilty by association with a plan to prevent a parliamentary majority from convening to choose his replacement this October. They also point out that Mr. Lahoud refused to sign the documents to hold a by-election to replace pro-government deputy Pierre Gemayel, who was assassinated last November.
Mr. Eido was a member of the movement headed by Mr. Hariri's son Saad, who added his voice Wednesday night to those accusing the killers of trying to strangle Lebanon's constitutional structures and bring the state to a standstill. Without mentioning Syria by name, he called for the Arab League to stop attacks by one member against another.
Some also fear Mr. Eido's killing may spark new Sunni-Shia tensions, which have not previously featured prominently in Lebanese political dynamics. The country's consensus-based governance system — when it works — is based on agreement among Sunni, Shia, Christian and Druze groups. Political and communal tensions have recently crossed sectarian lines, and coincide more with pro-U.S. or pro-Syrian/Iranian sentiments.
Another growing fear is that Lebanon is now being deliberately destabilized along three simultaneous fronts: the al-Qaeda-like group fighting the Lebanese army in the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp in the north; the successful or attempted assassinations of 10 prominent figures who were critical of Syria in the past 2½ years; and a dozen nighttime bombings around Beirut in recent months, which seem aimed more at terrorizing and destabilizing citizens rather than killing large numbers of them.
Washington has openly supported Beirut on all three fronts, often explicitly siding with government accusations against Damascus. Many pro-government officials and citizens have accused Syria of sending gunmen to northern Lebanon, a charge Syria also denies.
The facts about who is behind the violence will almost certainly become known. But, for now, it is certain only that Lebanon has become a ravaged battlefield where regional and global warriors are facing off in an increasingly brutal contest that shows no signs of abating.
Rami Khouri is director of the Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut and editor-at-large of the Beirut-based Daily Star.
