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Eleven more sleeps to victory ... or defeat. The stakes are huge: deliver in 11 days or it's another four years before you can try again.
Some pundits are telling us it's over. The Liberals have enough of a lead that no one can catch up. While I'm sure the Liberal war room enjoys reading those comments, I'm also sure they don't believe it.
At least a third of Ontarians in our polls say they would like to hear more before they make up their minds. What can a party do to tie down those potential swing voters?
The Liberals need to keep doing what they have been doing, but just a little more. The Liberals set out to make this an election on whether you are for or against funding for faith-based schools. For the first few weeks, that's all the public heard about John Tory, and they didn't like what they were hearing.
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The Liberal goal in the debate was for Dalton McGuinty to emerge in one piece. While he was somewhat battered and bruised, the Liberal Leader avoided a knock-out blow.
Going forward, the Liberals face two distinct threats. First, while some pundits say no one likes "negative ads," the ones targeting the Liberals seem to be working. Time for a change is edging up and those who agree it is time for a change believe so more firmly.
Second, the NDP is becoming more visible and more visibility equals more NDP votes, mostly from the Liberals.
Focusing on the Liberal record is not the way to respond to those threats. Not even core Liberals agree that the Liberals made things better in the first four years. Instead, the Liberals should focus on the problems they still want to address to illustrate who they are fighting for and why they care. These problems should be centre-left - health, learning-disabled children, the working poor, etc.
Focusing on what they want to do next allows the Liberals to pre-empt the NDP and remind voters of past Tory failings without appearing negative.
The Tories have to pick themselves up, dust themselves off and re-engage. After a very negative first two weeks, their leader pulled off a strong debate performance.
The fact that they remain within single digits of the Liberals after the faith-based barrage is remarkable and says a lot about the Tory potential to keep the campaign interesting.
That said, the PCs need to make a move. They are behind and they have to shake the campaign up if they want to change that. The challenge is to say something, anything, that newspapers feel is worthy of the front page.
The Tories need to capture voters' attention with an issue or issues proving why a John Tory government is good for swing voters and a Dalton McGuinty government is bad.
The NDP still has a big opportunity to regain its 20-per-cent vote share and drive the Liberals into minority. Coverage of Howard Hampton's minority agenda is reminiscent of Jack Layton's successful strategy around the 2005 spring Paul Martin budget. If you want to cut tuition, fix the education funding formula, reduce waiting times or get a $10 minimum wage right now, vote NDP. It is a simple and potentially compelling message ... if the NDP can get that message out to swing voters and swing ridings.
There is still a lot of room for movement in this campaign. Tory voters are pretty firm in their voting intentions, but Liberal, and especially NDP, supporters are open to more information before they make up their minds.
Whoever provides the media with the most compelling story will win the battle for these critical swing votes.
Greg Lyle is managing director of the Innovative Research Group, a public-opinion research and strategy firm based in Toronto.
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