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Liberals are now the only partisans enjoying this election.
Despite some uncomfortable moments, they now seem inexorably moving toward victory. The Progressive Conservative attacks on Mr. McGuinty personally, augmented by the NDP, for a time seemed to have capped Liberal support at a lower level than satisfaction with the direction of the province would suggest.
Over time, it seems that the combined weight of the government's largely popular record, the unhappy memories many Ontarians have of the Harris government, and the cataclysmic faith-based schools proposal have overwhelmed Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory's personal popularity and the promise-breaker theme. With 11 days to go, the PCs need a second act quickly.
Most voters likely know only two things about Mr. Tory - he thinks Mr. McGuinty can't be trusted (and many voters will agree) and he wants to bring in faith-based schools (and most voters would disagree).
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There is no single idea out there associated with Mr. Tory that would make Ontario a better place. He needs to fix that. He knows this - he and his team are among the best political operatives in the country. The challenge is doing it.
He has been making announcements day after day - autism, low-income tax cuts - and the news media, sensing the public boredom with the campaign, are dutifully reporting them on Page 22 or well into the news broadcast.
It is going to be hard to break through and it will require consistent focus on one idea, interesting ways of communicating it and a little luck.
The most recent polls indicate that the Liberal campaign has been able to build on the lead it carried into the campaign, which may now be enough to deliver a majority government. Postdebate, Mr. McGuinty has begun more pointedly to try to link Mr. Tory to the unpopular policies of the Harris government and warning of cuts to health and education after a Conservative victory.
He needs to make sure the choice is not Mr. McGuinty or Mr. Tory, but rather Liberals or Harris Conservatives. This is likely his strongest ground and will be most motivating to swing Liberal/NDP voters.
The NDP needed a more effective debate performance from Leader Howard Hampton if they were to break into the main dynamic of the election. As the other parties attempt to polarize the choice, the NDP has got to clarify the need for electing New Democrats. Mr. Hampton may have found that issue with yesterday's appeal to manufacturing workers who fear for their jobs.
There may be an entirely different approach to this. The polling indicates that Ontarians are indifferent to this election. It is unfortunate that nobody has been able to generate excitement around a positive vision. Easier said than done these days.
In the 2004 U.S. presidential campaign, Karl Rove did something very unorthodox. The traditional approach of candidates and parties is to try to appeal, however ephemerally, to as many people as possible.
Mr. Rove decided it would be a waste of time to try to make George W. Bush more appealing to people who were unlikely to vote anyway. Instead, he positioned Mr. Bush's campaign to appeal as strongly as possible to his political base, his core. He counted on a strong turnout from his core vote to carry the day in a low-turnout election.
Adopting this strategy would require some uncomfortable changes in tactics for the PCs. The core vote is motivated by issues and ideology, not leaders. And Mr. Tory would have to in some way drop his schools policy because it is least popular among traditional PC voters.
There is still time for the trajectory of this campaign to be altered, but Mr. Tory will have to take a risk to make it happen.
David Herle, a political consultant and strategist, is a former top adviser to Paul Martin and is now principal of the Gandalf Group.
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