TORONTO — Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory's proposal to fund faith-based schools has inflicted enormous damage on his party, leaving it trailing 15 points behind the Liberals on the eve of tomorrow's election, according to a new poll.
Only 27 per cent of voters support the Conservatives, making it all but certain that Dalton McGuinty's Liberals, at 42 per cent, will win a second majority, says the Strategic Counsel survey conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV.
The Liberal lead is not due to a growth in their popularity, but because support for the Conservatives has fallen to near historic lows. The survey says the biggest beneficiaries are the province's second-tier parties - the New Democrats and Greens - that are attracting the "protest vote," mainly outside the Toronto area.
"As Ontarians became more engaged in the election, they clearly turned away from the PCs," said Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner at the Strategic Counsel. "The issue of education and religion has totally exploded and been devastating to the PC campaign."
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However, there is some potential for the Conservatives to do better than the numbers suggest on election day, the poll says, because Conservative supporters are disproportionately older and therefore more likely to vote.
Nevertheless, the survey done over the Thanksgiving weekend marks a stunning reversal of fortune for Mr. Tory, who has personally paid a political price for initially promoting the funding of all religious schools and then backing off last Monday by saying he would put the matter to a free vote in the legislature should he become premier.
His popularity now trails that of Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty, with only 30 per cent of voters saying he would be the best premier, compared with 36 per cent for his rival. This is a reversal from a poll done by Strategic Counsel three weeks ago, when Mr. Tory was the No. 1 choice.
The Conservative Leader has attempted to make Mr. McGuinty's broken promises the defining issue of the campaign. Instead, his decision to push funding for all religious schools amid widespread opposition has become dominant, virtually drowning out everything else.
Mr. Tory went into the campaign with a clear advantage over his rival. Mr. McGuinty was viewed as vulnerable for breaking a number of pledges he had made during the 2003 campaign, including the $2.6-billion annual health premium he introduced in 2004 after promising not to raise taxes.
But the Liberals ran a "highly disciplined and effective campaign by stoking the fires" on the school issue, the survey says. Mr. McGuinty campaigned vigorously against the policy, which he said would threaten the stability of the public education system.
The strategy appears to have worked. Of those polled, 49 per cent said the pledge to fund faith-based schools was the issue they were most concerned about, while only 39 per cent cited Mr. McGuinty's broken promises.
The furor over faith-based schools has translated into a seven-point decline in support for the Conservatives over the past three weeks. While support for the Liberals has barely budged, climbing just two points, the school issue has driven voters into the arms of the New Democrats and Greens.
The New Democrats' support climbed three points to 19 per cent, an improvement from the 14.7 per cent of the vote the party received in the 2003 election when it elected just seven MPPs. Party strategists are focusing their hopes on winning more seats in Northwestern Ontario, Hamilton, Toronto and Windsor.
Both the New Democratic and Green parties are benefiting from a desire for change that is particularly strong outside Toronto, the survey says. Economically struggling areas of Southwestern Ontario and Northern Ontario have been hit hard by job losses in the manufacturing sector and by families and businesses deciding to leave for fresh opportunity.
Support for the Green Party now stands at 11 per cent, up one point and its highest level in recent years, the survey says. The Greens can appear strong between elections because many people "park" their votes with them, Mr. Woolstencroft said.
The survey shows that a majority of Ontarians have not changed their opinion of Mr. Tory after his decision to put the faith-based school policy to a free vote. However, one-quarter said the decision has changed their opinion of him for the worse.
The free vote simply compounded the initial mistake, the survey says. "By changing course, Tory lost the high ground on the 'broken promises' issue and robbed the PCs of the opportunity to truly exploit this key Liberal vulnerability in the final 10 days of the campaign."
The survey of 850 Ontarians was conducted on Oct. 6 and Oct. 7.
It is considered accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.
Bouncing back
A weekend poll conducted for The Globe and Mail/CTV indicates the Liberals have regained their lead on the eve of the provincial election.
Who would Ontarians vote for today in a provincial election? By region
Oct. 6-7
ONTARIO
Liberal: 42%
Conservative: 27%
NDP: 19%
Green: 11%
City of Toronto (416)
Liberal: 51%
Conservative: 22%
NDP: 19%
Green: 7%
Toronto suburbs (905)
Liberal: 54%
Conservative: 30%
NDP: 9%
Green: 7%
Southwestern (519)
Liberal: 39%
Conservative: 28%
NDP: 20%
Green: 13%
NOTE: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Who would be the best premier of Ontario?
Oct. 6-7, 2007
Dalton McGuinty: 36%
John Tory: 30%
Howard Hampton: 17%
Frank de Jong: 5%
None of them: 4%
Other/DK/NA/Ref: 9%
Sept. 10-13, 2007
Dalton McGuinty: 31%
John Tory: 37%
Howard Hampton: 17%
Frank de Jong: 6%
None of them: 3%
Other/DK/NA/Ref: 6%
Funding religious schools versus broken promises
The poll found that almost half (49 per cent) of respondents felt that John Tory's promise to fund faith-based schools was a bigger election issue that Dalton McGuinty's broken promises (39 per cent).
Funding of religious schools was a bigger issue in Greater Toronto (54 per cent) than in the rest of the province (46 per cent) and helped the Liberals consolidate their support in the area.
Broken promises was a bigger issue outside Greater Toronto (42 per cent) than inside (35 per cent) although the Tories were not able to exploit this in the final stages of the campaign.
The NDP and the Greens benefited from concerns about broken promises.
About two-thirds (66 per cent) of Ontarians were aware of Mr. Tory's pledge to hold a free vote in the legislature on faith-based schools. This had little impact on voter intentions, but did some modest damage to people's perceptions of him.
One-quarter (26 per cent) said it worsened their view of Mr. Tory, while 18 per cent said it improved their view and about half said their views had not changed.
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