Thousands of people mourned one of the most powerful men in southern Afghanistan Friday, and voiced fears about how they can stand against the Taliban without the renowned tribal elder Mullah Naqib.
The jovial, grey-bearded strongman died of a heart attack on Thursday night, his tribesmen said. He had suffered months of poor health after a suspected Taliban bombing that hospitalized him in March.
His passing leaves a dangerous gap in Kandahar city's defences, according to local officials and Western analysts. Mr. Naqib ruled the Arghandab district, a key buffer zone between the urban areas under government control and the increasingly hostile districts to the north.
“This is really, really bad news,” said Sarah Chayes, an American author who lives in Kandahar city. “Arghandab was the finger in the dike. Now you have a wall of water bearing down on the city.”
Canadian military officials have been worrying about their northern flank for months, as Mr. Naqib's influence waned and the Taliban focused on his territory as a route for attacking the city that once served as their seat of government.
The entire Canadian battle group is devoted to protecting the fertile river valley that leads toward Kandahar city from the southwest, but the Arghandab district could provide the same kind of corridor for insurgents, with plentiful hiding places among its trees and grape fields.
“Mullah Naqib protected Kandahar,” said Abdul Rahim Jan, a tribal elder from Panjwai. “This is a big loss. It's like a thousand people died.”
The Canadian military must quickly set up permanent posts in Arghandab to fill the power vacuum, Ms. Chayes said, estimating that perhaps 200 soldiers will be necessary to keep the peace.
Even before his death, however, Mr. Naqib's grip on Arghandab appeared to be slipping. He controlled the region since his rise to power as an anti-Soviet commander in the 1980s, when his success on the battlefield made him leader of the Alokozais, a populous and powerful tribe.
When interviewed by The Globe and Mail last month, however, the old warrior looked tired and sounded worried. In sharp contrast with his previously confident statements, Mr. Naqib warned that district centres would fall to the Taliban if the Canadian forces withdraw as scheduled in 2009.
“The locations the government holds now will be captured by the Taliban” if the Canadians leave, he said at the time.
On the night before his death, Ms. Chayes sat with him on the veranda of his home on the north side of the city, a comfortably appointed compound with lush gardens. He spoke disconsolately about the deteriorating security in Kandahar province, and seemed deeply saddened by it.
“He could not believe the situation now,” she said. “He died of a broken heart.”
Mr. Naqib, who was in his fifties, was buried Friday in his home village in the Arghandab district. Several notable Afghan politicians rushed to Kandahar to attend his funeral, and his death was announced during Friday prayers at the city's biggest landmark, the blue mosque on the northwestern edge of the city.
A tribal council, or shura, is expected to decide the next leader of the Alokozai tribe. The government's favoured candidate will be Haji Agha Lalai, a provincial council member from Panjwai district who also serves as head of Peace Through Strength, a program intended to help Taliban to switch sides in the war.
Other leading candidates will be Malim Akbar, the brother of slain Kandahar police chief Zabit Akrem Khakrezwal; and Abdul Hakim Jan, a relatively uneducated police commander in Arghandab.
“I am ready to serve, but it's a decision for the people,” said Mr. Lalai, reached by telephone last night.
The process of finding a new leader may take two or three months, Mr. Lalai said. While disparaging his competitors for the position, he suggested that together they might even do a better job than Mr. Naqib at protecting Arghandab.
“We can make the district even cleaner of Taliban than it is now,” he said.
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