The prospect of $100 a barrel oil is evaporating as fast as it was conjured.

The commodity, which nine days ago was less than a dollar away from $100, is on Friday at less than $90, tumbling on the reality that oil supplies are adequate and that Saudi Arabia will likely fight for an OPEC production increase at a meeting next week to push the price lower so sagging demand for the product might rebound.

"Last week, we had suggested that the party for crude oil may be slowly drawing to a close," analyst Marty King of FirstEnergy Capital in Calgary said in a report on Thursday. "Given the downward pricing pressure seen this week, it would seem that the guests continue to file out the door and the lights are being dimmed. Indeed, the lights may grow dimmer in the next few weeks."

If you've got money in oil, Mr. King's immediate advice is clear: "Profit take, for now." On the "for now" bit, Mr. King means he sees oil remaining fairly high over 2008, predicting an average of $72 a barrel, which is higher than many forecasters, but he feels he might be lowballing it, talking about "real additional upside."

Canadian names like Suncor Energy Inc., the oil sands miner, and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., the No. 2 domestic producer and a new oil sands miner, would benefit from a crude price that remains higher than $70 for a long time.

As for demand, economists have spoken relatively blithely about the global economy's resilience to high oil prices. Yes, we have not tumbled into recession. But: Demand is ebbing, even in the U.S., those 50 states that seemingly can never suck down enough black gold to fuel their mobility wants.

The numbers, in fact, are very striking. Let us recall that oil first surged past $70 in April, 2006 (remember this date) and despite a dip towards $50 early this year, the commodity has averaged roughly $70 in 2007. That's not cheap.

U.S. oil demand, for crude and refined products, was 20.39-million barrels a day in September, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. That is down 3.1 per cent from August and is in fact the lowest since April, 2006, one-and-one-half years ago and the same month that oil first surpassed $70.

Some people talk about Peak Oil. What about Peak Demand? When did U.S. demand peak? Not April, 2006, but August, 2005, more than two years ago, at 21.67-million barrels a day. (This said, demand of course could rise in future.)

Further context: When was the first time U.S. demand was at the same level as this September?

December, 1999. Eight years ago.

The U.S. uses a lot of oil. It torches one of every four barrels produced in the world daily. But it’s not using more.

For Saudi Arabia, the world’s No. 1 supplier, whose desert economy doesn’t exist without oil, this is pressing and worrisome. Yes, there is China, and yes, there is India. But when we hear about “security of supply” from President George W. Bush, Saudi Arabia talks about “security of demand,” specifically making that a main theme of its OPEC Summit in Riyadh earlier this month, which was essentially one big global public relations campaign to say: We’re nice, reliable and will supply reasonably priced oil (not at $100 a barrel).

Ali al-Naimi, Saudi’s oil minister and de facto OPEC chief, went so far as to say Saudi and OPEC have nothing to do with $100 oil and are equally bewildered by it. That was somewhat disingenuous but telling, too, in that Saudi clearly fears $100 oil and its corrosive impact on demand.

Next week, on Dec. 5, OPEC oil ministers meet in Abu Dhabi for a regular meeting at which the cartel’s production will be discussed. A year ago, with prices sliding, Saudi and the rest yanked about 1 million barrels a day off the market, priming the pump this year for near $100 oil.

Earlier this fall, OPEC said it would restore 500,000 barrels a day and on Dec. 5 the expectation is that Saudi and its allies in OPEC will outvote Venezuela and Iran and add more production to quell the oil price -which clearly, without doubt, is hurting demand for the product.

As for $100 oil, when will we see it? It doesn’t look like this year—and maybe not for a long while. But, of course, perhaps tomorrow—the wild world of oil rolls ahead.