NAIROBI — Two heavyweights of Kenya's post-independence politics square off in a presidential vote tomorrow after a campaign that has overshadowed Christmas and seen the opposition holding a small lead in opinion polls.
The closeness of the vote has raised fears that fraud and intimidation may be used to try and swing results in a country that has enjoyed relative stability and become East Africa's economic powerhouse since the end of British rule in 1963.
All except one of the public surveys since September have put opposition candidate Raila Odinga, a 62-year-old businessman and former political prisoner, a few points ahead of President Mwai Kibaki, who won in 2002.
Just one recent Gallup poll put Mr. Kibaki a point ahead, showing that the result is still in play.
“This is not likely to be a season of good cheer due to the very human clash of wills between contenders for political power,” wrote Kenyan newspaper the Daily Nation in a Christmas Day editorial.
“As a result, society is more polarized than ever before.”
Mr. Odinga called a Christmas Day news conference to repeat allegations of the ruling party's fraud plans.
He said there was “incontrovertible evidence” Mr. Kibaki's Party of National Unity planned to rig votes by dressing up armed state security men as plain clothes polling agents.
“I've appealed to President Kibaki to prevail on his agents against election rigging acts that could plunge this country into bloodshed,” he said. “My appeal has gone unheeded.”
Mr. Odinga said he had letters and videotapes proving the plot.
“They [the policemen] were issued each with 1,000 premarked ballot papers to be stuffed by them,” he said.
Mr. Kibaki's party has repeatedly denied opposition claims of plans to rig the poll.
After a rough campaign, including several deaths and riots, many locals worry about more trouble on election day.
“The temptation to rig is always there, but it is heightened by the fact the election is very competitive,” said Koki Muli, co-chair of a domestic observers' group.
Analysts say a possible “nightmare scenario” is a narrow government victory, aided by rigging.
“Then you are going to see the Raila camp go absolutely ballistic, because they've led polls,” a Western diplomat said.
Official results are expected to start coming in Friday morning, though media surveys will give a picture overnight.
