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Devastating asteroid smaller than once thought

SUE MAJOR HOLMES

The Associated Press

Latest comment posted at 2:51 AM EDT 05/02/08

Meteorite that exploded over Russia was one-third of the 10- to 20-megaton range scientists previously estimated ...Read the full article

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  1. Carlos Jose from Edmonton, Canada writes: Based on their frequency estimates, we should be good for another 36900 years. However, it is helpful none the less to learn what we can from Tunguska and be prepared for it in case some astronomical object ends up on a collision course with our planet.
  2. Fundamentalist Of Sorts... from Toronto, Canada writes: Is anyone else aware of the fact that there is a huge asteroid that has been circling the Earth's orbit for a number of years now and based on scientists' calculations it will hit the Earth in 2040 and make us all extinct? Also there's a satellite falling to earth and could hit between now and the next 6 weeks, and they are unsure as to where it will fall, but they say it could be in the water. What's worse is that it is filled with rocket fuel and all sorts of chemicals that are toxic and my belief is that it will explode before hitting the ground and that means big toxic rain and gas for us all to enjoy.

    Regards...
  3. Wayne Young from Victoria BC, Canada writes: What I can not believe my eyes no one has posted anything that somehow blames this in Harper! hahahahahahaha
  4. John Wood from Calgary, Canada writes: I guess that a collision frequency rate of once in 37000 years means that there is a 1:37000 chance that it will occur in any particular year. On that basis, there is a 0.0027% chance that that could be this year; and a 1% chance that it could occur within the next 370 years; and a 100% chance that it will happen withing the next 37000 years. After that we could say that it is overdue, but it might still not occur for many more years. Conversely, it might happen next week and every week thereafter for a month: not likely, but who knows?

    I'm sure that this is very significant, but I haven't figured out how.
  5. James McGillawee from Oshawa, Canada writes: Carlos Jose from Edmonton, Canada writes: Based on their frequency estimates, we should be good for another 36900 years. However, it is helpful none the less to learn what we can from Tunguska and be prepared for it in case some astronomical object ends up on a collision course with our planet.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Carlos, while it maybe 36,900 years on the average frequency there is always a plus or minus factor to such statistics. Hence it is foolish to ignore the potential for an event to occur tomorrow! For your information you might want to look up the details on the Bruderheim Meteorite that fell one winter night back in the early sixties. Total up the number of pieces and their mass that was collected from the farm field by Tyrone Balako and colleagues. They did an exceptionally good job of documenting and mapping these pieces. I believe there is some material and an account on file at the Edmonton Planetarium.
    What happened in that event was nothing compared to Tunguska, but these events occur at random in time, location, and severity. There is also the differences between the types of impacting objects varying from stony, metallic (iron/nickel) and cometary (frozen water with solid particles). The latter may not be collectible! Also there are other events like the near miss in 1972 in which an asteroid the size of a house entered the Earths atmosphere and left a smoky trail as it glanced off the Atmosphere back into space.
    It is not reassuring to me that the average is set at every 37K years when more events can be listed in our life time including the event where the pieces were collected from the frozen lake surface in the Southern Yukon just a few years ago!
    I do support spending tax dollars to detect, log, and plot these "neighbors" in space that might unexpectedly arrive "uninvited"!
  6. The Wight from Canada writes: Fundamentalist Of Sorts...

    "Is anyone else aware of the fact that there is a huge asteroid that has been circling the Earth's orbit for a number of years now and based on scientists' calculations it will hit the Earth in 2040 and make us all extinct?"

    That myth is still kicking around? You are referring to 1997 XF11, an asteroid that was predicted in 1998 to have a CHANCE of hitting the Earth. The media latched onto it and blew it all out of proportion. They completely missed that the scientists involved in the first press release later withdrew it after more complete calculations of the orbit.

    As for the satellite ... don't lose much sleep over it. 70% of the Earth's surface is water, so that's likely where it will end up. Even if it doesn't end up in the ocean, the odds of it smacking into or near your location are slim to none. If you still walk out your door every day to go to work, despite the vastly larger risk you take on Canadian roads, then sit back, relax and watch the show.
  7. Will Wynn from Canada writes: This headline belongs on theonion along with "God not nearly as omnipotent as once thought".
  8. Fundamentalist Of Sorts... from Toronto, Canada writes: The Wight...

    Thanks for the info on the asteroid. So do you mean to say that scientists withdrew it because it is not in our orbit anymore or because it will not enter Earth's atmosphere? Also, regarding the satellite, with the toxic fumes and rocket fuel in it, do you think it could explode before impact? And if that does happens then will it's contents not spread and maybe cause greater harm?
  9. Doug Dewan from Calgary, Canada writes: It's all Harpers fault!
  10. Fundamentalist Of Sorts... from Toronto, Canada writes: Jean Luft...

    WATCH THE NEWS before you call out names buddy. The satellite story is one of the major things they've been talking about.
  11. B G from Vancouver, Canada writes: Fundamentalist - the media also talked about Anna Nicole Smith's death for weeks on end. Does that make it something you & I need to concern ourselves with?

    How big do you think this satellite is? It would have to be the size of Texas (I think that's still a unit of measure) to rain toxic gas all over the planet.
  12. The Wight from Canada writes: "Also, regarding the satellite, with the toxic fumes and rocket fuel in it, do you think it could explode before impact?"

    The satellite was never designed for re-entry. What that means is that it will be subjected to heat and stress well beyond its design limits and it will be busted up and burned away in the upper atmosphere like most smaller asteroids are. At that point, the heat will vapourize and burn off ANY fuel left on board and most of the smaller pieces will burn up as well. Depending upon how it breaks up, there might be a larger chunk or two that actually makes it to the ground, but I personally doubt it. Seriously, there is nothing to worry about.

    As for the XF11 asteroid ... what astronomers call a cosmic "close call" is actually many thousands of kilometers away from the Earth. This most recent asteroid from Tuesday came within 500 000 km, or 1.4 times the distance between the Earth and the Moon. XF11 was originally projected to be within the Earth-Moon distance, which starts to get worrying (385 000 km) but the fresh calculations done later in 1998 moved that out to over 600 000 km. To put that in perspective, if the Earth was the size of the home plate in baseball, both asteroids wouldn't even get within the ballpark.
  13. Jon Z from Canada writes: So the headline reads "Devastating asteroid smaller than once thought", but nowhere does the article mention how big it was thought to be before, nor how big the revised estimates are. Exactly how much of a change are we talking about?
  14. The Wight from Canada writes: I'll quote the tagline above the comments ...

    "Meteorite that exploded over Russia was one-third of the 10- to 20-megaton range scientists previously estimated ..."

    It had 1/3 the impact, but I doubt we'll ever know the exact size of the thing, seeing as nothing survived and we don't have any comparable strikes to put side by side.
  15. Wandering Willy from Victoria, Canada writes: Good thing it wasn't an invasion of hostile aliens since it took them 19 years to go investigate.
  16. My Self from Vancouver, Canada writes: It was previously thought that the object that exploded over Tunguska Siberia was large enough that the frequency of such impacts was one in every few thousand years, but recent simulations now suggest it was small enough that the odds of this impact may be one in every few hundred years.
  17. GlynnMhor of Skywall from Canada writes: Thanks in large measure to funding provided after the Shoemaker-Levy 9 impact on Jupiter in 1994 (even CongressCritters sit up and take notice when you show them impact holes bigger than the Earth) we now know the orbits of almost half the Earth-crossing asteroids bigger than a kilometre in size.

    The estimated total population of those is about 2500.

    So there are over 1000 of them floating out there whose orbits we cannot at present predict. And a kilometre wide asteroid would be quite devastating; not as bad as Chicxlub, for sure, but bad enough.
  18. Fundamentalist Of Sorts... from Toronto, Canada writes: B G: I wasn't aware that its size was so small...so I guess we're okay...for now...until something else comes up. Thanks for the response.
  19. harry carnie from Northern, B.C., Canada writes: Fundamentalist of sorts .. that is why we should keep our credit cards
    "maxed out" and enjoy life as it goes...`cuz you never know.....

    A Russian satellite (atomic powered) crashed in Northern Canada a few years back.Fortunately in an uninhabited area. Canada and the U.S. cleaned up the radiation and sent the bill to Russia.

    So your concern with the present failing satellite IS VALID.

    Given the odds though ..chances are.... we will still have to pay those credit cards.
  20. Donald Duck from Ottawa, Canada writes: List of things we should be afraid of: terrorists, floods, global-warming, cancer, AIDS, heart-disease, working too hard, not working hard enought, cars, falling satellites, and now smaller asteroids than the one that hit Tunguska. It's really a wonder any of us get up in the morning, we should really just crawl into our basements and cower in the face of our impending doom.
  21. Fundamentalist Of Sorts... from Toronto, Canada writes: harry carnie: So did the Russians pay up? I'm assuming they had to before a war or something ensued.

    Any other interesting facts that anyone out there has regarding anything falling to earth and/or any links with document or video evidence? I saw a video on a meteor crashing in some desert area in Mexico right by some backpackers. It looked insane, but I don't know if there was any truth to it, although it looked completely real to me...
  22. Dr Demento from Canada writes: I think George Bush should declare a war on asteroids to deflect attention away from the economy.
  23. B G from Vancouver, Canada writes: Just to add some colour, Fundamentalist, the satellite is 13 feet by 16 feet.

    And the fuel tank isn't full. so you needn't worry about toxic rain.

    Remember when the space shuttle blew up on re-entry? the space shuttle was much, much larger than this satellite - and only scraps of it ever reached the ground.
  24. harry carnie from Northern, B.C., Canada writes: Fundamentalist of sorts..good question ... do not know if they(Russians) did pay or not. Will have to look it up.

    Must admit, I am NOW very skeptical with material on the net.

    There are some wonderful items (such as your meteor crash) that have turned out to be "phony as hell". so enjoy them ..but do not believe them as real. Cuz some times they are not.
  25. Brian L from Canada writes: When you think about it not a bad and very efficient solution to global warming. Asteroid strikes populated area, kills millions, maybe billions. Dust cloud causes massive short term cooling, mini-ice age ensues. Resulting crop failures and famine kill millions or billions more.

    Oh and less people means lower consumption of fossil fuels, leaving more for whoever survives for later.

    Better than most of the other solutions to a contrived crisis heard recently.
  26. Fundamentalist Of Sorts... from Toronto, Canada writes: Harry Carnie: It would be interesting to find out if they did pay up at all, if any...if anyone else knows whether the Russians paid for the US and Canada's radiation cleaning satellite crew's services, please let us know! Also, if anyone has some awesome footage of meteors asteroids comets etc. please share links!!

    B G: Ahh thats pretty small, hopefully it won't do much damage.
  27. GlynnMhor of Skywall from Canada writes: I think the russkies paid about half the bill Canada was demanding.
  28. kevin joncas from Canada writes: I don't get it. Had not the scientists spoken about the cause of this event? Are they saying that scientists can be wrong? For shame.
  29. Allan Sherwin from Victoria, Canada writes: I'm missing something. Since when do asteroids blow up before they hit something. Small ones disintegrate, break up yes, large ones hit the earth and medium sized ones blow up like a bomb. Huh? Take a look at the pictures, it looks as if a bomb exploded above the epicentre. As an aside, an Italian research firm has found an anomaly below a lake in the area. The smoking gun? What will earthlings say when it is found to be remnants of a spaceship?
  30. martha stewart from Canada writes: kevin joncas - I too am utterly shocked that they could be wrong. But don't let this little glitch shake your faith in the Global Warming experts. It will be 5.961 degress C warmer on July 1, 2098 - unless we give the fortune tellers more cash.

    Whatever happened to that fraudulent Korean scientist who supposedly cloned something ... is he switched over to political climatology yet?
  31. J M from Realityville, Canada writes: Allan Sherwin from Victoria, Canada writes: What will earthlings say when it is found to be remnants of a spaceship?

    Thanks for the laugh :) For a minute I thought you were serious and then I re-read your post. You should try stand up.
  32. J S from Toronto, Canada writes: G & M - I love these stories, please keep them coming. Posters on this board - thanks for the comedy relief and lively discussion!!
  33. Gawd Knows from Canada writes: If we take a good look at the Moon, we discover that probably every inch (cm) of it has had an asteroid strike. The gravity of the Earth is much stronger, and the Earth much bigger. So the conclusion is -- - - . Correct.

    So the Earth is travelling at 67,000kmh in its orbit. Anything that gets in the way will appear from where we are, to be approaching Earth at this same speed.

    It doesn't take a very big asteroid traveling at this speed to create a huge amount of damage. Tunguska being the best example. Every living thing in the damage zone would have been killed. The damage zone was very extensive.

    Finally, we on Earth would be helpless to redirect a massive object traveling at this speed. Forget about Nuclear, it would all come back down and wouldn't deflect it by any measureable amount.
  34. Patricia knowles from Ottawa, Canada writes: Scientists are always wrong. Just like they are with the bang big theory, evolution, AND ANY RIDICULOUS THING THEY LIKE TO SHOVE DOWN THE THROATS OF CANADIANS AND EVERYONE AROUND THE WORLD.
  35. Brian L from Canada writes: Come on, baby! But first let me point you toward David Suzuki's and Al Gore's mansions.
  36. Allan Sherwin from Victoria, Canada writes: Dear J M from realityville. Thank you. However, what makes an asteroid explode in mid air? Obviously, there is an equation. Velocity times mass - distance to earth = explosion in mid air. Have i got it right?
  37. Dr Demento from Canada writes: Allan Sherwin from Victoria, Canada writes:

    "I'm missing something. Since when do asteroids blow up before they hit something."

    Apparently they do. The heat and energy created when they enter the atmosphere causes an intensely hot "air-burst" that does much of the damage.

    The most significant recorded impact in recent times was the Tunguska event, which occurred in Siberia, Russia, in 1908. This incident involved an explosion that was probably caused by the airburst of an asteroid or comet 5 to 10 kilometres (3–6 mi) above the Earth's surface, scorching the Earth and felling an estimated 80 million trees over 2,150 square kilometres (830 sq mi).
  38. GlynnMhor of Skywall from Canada writes: The question of whether or not it explodes in midair also depends on the composition of the meteoroid. Chondrites and stony ones are weaker, stony irons a bit stronger, and the iron ones stronger still.

    If the trajectory is more or less straight down, there will not be much time for stresses to build up to an explosion, whereas if the object enters the atmosphere at an angle it can undergo considerable external heating to contrast with its maybe 20 Kelvin interior.
  39. Dr Demento from Canada writes: GlynnMhor; statistically an asteroid is much more likely to enter the atmosphere at an acute angle than to hit the Earth straight on.
  40. GlynnMhor of Skywall from Canada writes: Dr Demento from Canada writes: "GlynnMhor; statistically an asteroid is much more likely to enter the atmosphere at an acute angle than to hit the Earth straight on."

    Quite so, and since the majority of 'Earth crossers' revolve in the same direction that the earth does (very few inner solar system objects are retrograde) their speed of entry is much lower than for the typical comet, which can come from anywhere.
  41. Open Mike from Vancouver, Canada writes: Can I be furious about this? I quoted from this exact precise story at least three weeks ago in a similar G&M story about asteroids. Do you G&M editors read the scientific press three weeks after the rest of us? Here, you lazy sods: here's where to find what I found three goddamned weeks ago:

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/
  42. Michael Powers from Canada writes: What is it with the G&M and asteroids?

    First they post a story about one that had a definite possibility that maybe it would hit Mars around now. Haven't heard about that one for about a month.

    Then there was a story about one we just missed by about 1/2 million KM's a couple of weeks ago.

    Now we have a story about one that hit earth during the early part of the last century.

    Is this the next panic that they will promote after Climate Change cools down?
  43. L. van Dyk from Canada writes: I Googled "Average speed of an incoming meteor" and got a figure of 18 miles per second / 30 km/sec for the average observed. The article says this figure is for meteors originating within the Solar system. That's how fast the Earth moves around the sun.
    If a meteoroid comes from beyond the solar system, its velocity at the Earth's distance from the Sun must be greater than 26 mi/s (42 km/s).
    In the 1980s and 1990s, a combination of spacecraft and high-power radar observations indicated that hypervelocity micrometeoids do indeed exist with seeming interstellar dust connections.
    That's an awful lot of kinetic energy for any sized object. 18 miles per second is, if I'm not mistaken, about forty times the speed of a high-powered rifle bullet.
    Be somewhere else.
  44. Some Guy from Canada writes: When a small asteroid such as this (240m or a couple of city blocks) is discovered, it is discovered on the basis of a couple of photographs over one or several successive nights. Imagine you have to photographs of a scooter several kilometers away taken a few tenths of a second apart. Can you accurately predict if it will hit you?

    Unlike the scooter, the asteroid cannot steer and you cannot move. The moment it is sighted, large numbers of people continue photographing its path and getting better estimates of its course and speed. Other people who look for comets in hopes of having their names immortalized like the late Dr Levi, pour over old photographs they have taken based on estimates of the scooter's (asteroid's) estimated trajectory. One of them strikes paydirt and we now know where the scooter (asteroid) was some time ago. The prediction is further refined.

    Eventually, we have the plate number and address of the driver. We know it isn't even on the same road as us or at least we are on the sidewalk on the opposite side of the road. We are safe again crossing the road. But until we know the trajectory of every single scooter, let alone every single semi, and has been pointed out earlier, our best guess is we know 60 % of those, crossing the road is a gamble and one we have no choice in taking.

    Sorry, if the Tunguska event is really a 1/37000 shot per year, the fact it hit then leaves our chance of being hit next year at 1/37000. The dice have no memory. The chances we will be hit in the next 37000 years are not 100%, they are (1-(36999/37000) to the power 37000) x 100% which my calculator says is 63.3%.

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