Get set for the P2P Economy. What sideswiped music companies, Hollywood studios and newspaper companies could soon strike you, as individuals both consume and create content in peer-to-peer sharing that undercuts traditional industries.
That's one of 20 transformations on the Harvard Business Review's annual Breakthrough Ideas list. Online expert Stan Stainaker says P2P is already being felt in financial services, as websites like Kiva.org extend microcredit, and can be expected to hit energy and other industries. Some other breakthrough ideas to prepare for:
Task not time
Piecework used to be scorned but thanks to Gen Y, which doesn't want to hang around the office after their task is done, consultant Tamara Erickson says expect to see a task-based definition of jobs with individuals being paid for completing specific work rather than working a certain number of hours a week.
CEOs learn from MDs
Just as cocksure physicians are learning from case reviews that the overwhelming majority of medical errors come from poor thinking rather than operations errors, cocksure CEOs in future will need to analyze their own mistakes. "The format of clinical conferences, where the tools of cognitive science are used to air and dissect errors in physicians' judgment, can become a part of every business enterprise," Harvard Medical School Professor Jerome Groopman says.
Learning From Politics
Top executives also need to learn that they can't treat public opponents like competitors, and try to run them over or buy them off. Instead, communications consultant Michael Sheehan says executives have to learn from politicians, stepping back from the fray and assessing its dynamics. Who is on the other side of the table and why? What is the side's ultimate goal? How can it be met by your help?
The Gamer Disposition
Companies looking for an edge in future might ask job candidates to list the video games they play. John Seely Brown and Douglas Thomas of the University of Southern California say gamers are ideal for your workplace because they are bottom-line-oriented; understand the power of collaborating with diverse individuals in groups; thrive on change, see learning as fun; and operate on the edge as they often explore radical alternatives and innovative strategies for completing challenges.
An expert squeeze
As computing power grows and networks unleash the wisdom of the crowds, companies will limit the instances where they turn to experts, according to Michael Mauboussin, chief investment strategist of Legg Mason Capital Management. Experts are well equipped to solve problems that have rules underlying them but allow a high degree of freedom in arriving at solutions, as in strategy development, innovation and troubleshooting. Experts can be replaced by computers, however, for credit scoring and other more narrow rules-based problems. And wise crowds are better for problems based on probabilities, such as natural resource exploration and economic and political forecasting, where expertise is not as successful, it turns out, as a large number of opinions.
