19
HOUSTON — Esther Campos, 77, remembers the campaigns that she and other community leaders waged to bring rights and services to Houston's Hispanic community.
The Anglos had a "missionary mentality," she recalls.
"They'd tell us, 'This is what you need, and this is what we're going to give you.' What we wanted was a seat at the table."
Today, the Tejanos, Hispanics born and living in Texas, are at the table. Soon, they will control it.
Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Clinton speaks to supporters at a rally in Hidalgo, Tex., on Wednesday. (Eric Gay/AP)
Related Articles
Internet Links
Texas is in the midst of a demographic revolution. That revolution is splintering the state along racial, generational and class lines. And it could have deep and disturbing implications for Hillary Clinton's fading hopes to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
In the wake of yet another string of losses, this time in Wisconsin and Hawaii, the New York senator faces this stark challenge: Either win Texas and Ohio on March 4, and win big, or get out of the race.
"They are critically important," senior Clinton adviser Harold Ickes said yesterday in a conference call with reporters. "They are big states."
But there's a problem. Ms. Clinton is unlikely to win big in Texas.
She might not win at all, for reasons that extend beyond who has the better field organization or more money for advertising.
Demography, as much as politics, is driving this race. And demography does not favour Ms. Clinton.
Stephen Klineberg, a sociologist at Rice University, has devoted much of his research to tracking population shifts in Harris County, which encompasses Houston and its suburbs. His charts and graphs tell a tale of profound changes that have already transformed the city and much of the rest of the state.
In 1960, Harris County was 74 per cent white, 20 per cent black, and 6 per cent Latino. Today it is 38 per cent Latino, 37 per cent white and 18 per cent black.
And the Latino dominance of Houston will only increase with each passing year. Seventy-one per cent of people over 60 in Harris County are white. But among those aged 18 to 29, Latinos now prevail, with 45 per cent of the population, a near majority. Whites and blacks each account for about a quarter of the rest.
So Hispanics dominate Houston, as they dominate other major cities in Texas. And the vast majority of Hispanics are younger than 45.
Similar population shifts are under way throughout the southwest. Think of it as the Second Mexican-American War. And the Mexicans have already won.
"Every election will now have a larger and larger Latino vote," Prof. Klineberg observes. That should work to Ms. Clinton's advantage, because in some previous primaries, Latinos have supported Ms. Clinton over Barack Obama by a ratio of 2 to 1.
"But the Latino community in Houston is a very heterogeneous community," Prof. Klineberg maintains. "No candidate can capture all of it. It is not a possibility."
Older Latinos are saddened by that lack of common cause. Many young Houston Latinos, Ms. Campos believes, "aren't aware of all the struggles," that previous generations fought on their behalf.
"They know the way things are, but they don't know what it took to get there," she says.
Many of older Latino activists adore Bill Clinton, who they believe was the first American president to embrace their cause. That is why Ms. Campos is a fervent supporter of Hillary Clinton. But she is aware that among younger Latinos, Mr. Obama is at least as attractive.
"What matters is, at least now they have a choice."
The polling data bear out the fragility of Ms. Clinton's Latino support. The latest sampling, from SurveyUSA, puts Ms. Clinton five percentage points ahead of Mr. Obama. A recent CNN poll has the two within the margin of error. (In yet another state, a 20-point lead has vanished almost overnight.) "Among Hispanic voters, Clinton leads 2:1," according to the SurveyUSA poll's internal analysis. "If Hispanics vote in larger numbers, Clinton's lead is larger than the 5 points shown here. If Hispanics vote in smaller numbers, Obama runs stronger than these numbers show."
Latinos could make up as much as half of the entire Democratic vote in the Texas primaries. It is unquestionably true that the Latino Democratic political machine in Texas is solidly behind Ms. Clinton.
So let's game this out, with everything favouring Ms. Clinton: Latinos cast half the votes, and she wins them 2 to 1, giving her 34 per cent of the vote. The white vote accounts for about one third of the vote, and splits evenly, so she gets another 17 per cent. The black vote accounts for only about 12 per cent of the total, and she gets 20 per cent of that, so she rakes in another 2 per cent.
That gives her a modest majority of around 53 per cent. And that does not begin the take into account all of the factors that could weaken that number.
In Texas, the black community is formidably well organized, centred on church and community organizations, while, says Prof. Klineberg, "Latinos have been plagued by a lack of good leadership, and by their recent arrival on the political scene." So the black vote could be disproportionately high.
On one local radio station, earlier this week, the DJ was praising God and Barack Obama in equal measure.
And he was selling Obama merchandise. "Don't get mad if you can't get through," he urged listeners. "That's just the Lord blessing us."
Half an hour later, he was sold out.
There are relatively few working-class white Democrats in Texas. They vote in the Republican primary. Those whites who do vote Democrat tend to be affluent and Liberal, a key Obama constituency. Ms. Clinton will be challenged to win even half of their vote.
And while older Latinos are strongly behind Ms. Clinton, most Latinos are young, and young enthusiasts are among Mr. Obama's most fervent supporters. In rallies and campaign events, they shout "Si, se puede!" Yes we can.
A recent Gallup poll has Mr. Obama now outpolling Ms. Clinton among Hispanics nationwide, 50 per cent to 46 per cent. So 2 to 1? Not likely.
Then there are the arcane rules - the most arcane in the nation, and that's saying something - that govern the delegate selection process in Texas. Not only does the Democratic contest combine both primaries and caucuses, but congressional districts with a heavy turnout are awarded more delegates than districts with a low turnout.
Because Latinos have trouble mobilizing their vote, districts they dominate tend to have fewer representatives. The southern borderlands of the Rio Grande Valley, which are 90 per cent Hispanic and probably equally pro-Clinton, have a relatively low voter turnout compared with black districts in Houston, and are therefore awarded fewer delegates. As in Nevada, Mr. Obama could even lose the popular vote but win the delegate count.
Put it all together, and it's hard to see how Ms. Clinton leaves Texas with the wind at her back.
It is possible that Ms. Clinton could eke out a narrow victory in Texas, while giving Mr. Obama a drubbing in Ohio. But since she took a drubbing herself in Wisconsin, which is also a blue-collar swing state, that isn't likely to happen either.
Less than two weeks before Mini Super Tuesday, there isn't a scenario out there that, at this moment at least, is looking good for Hillary Clinton.
Texans can vote in advance of the primary, any time up until Feb. 29. At a jam-packed rally in Houston on Tuesday night, Mr. Obama urged the 20,000 supporters present not to wait until March 4 to cast their ballot.
Reports from the polling stations say turnout is already many times anything ever seen before.
Latinos by the numbers
46 million
U.S. Latino population
15%
Percentage of total U.S.
population
9%
Percentage of the eligible
electorate nationwide
44%
Percentage that is Democrat
19%
Percentage that is Republican
25%
Percentage that is independent
33%
Percentage that is under 18
Key states with
large Latino vote
New Mexico
Texas
Arizona
Florida
Colorado
Nevada
Iowa
Source: The Pew Hispanic Centre
Moving target
The support of Latino voters in the United States, a focus for all presidential hopefuls, has been hard for both parties to pin down over the past decade.
The percentage who identify with or lean to a party.
| '99 | '02 | '04 | '06 | '07 | |
| Democratic | 58% | 56% | 55% | 49% | 57% |
| Republican | 25% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 23% |
SOURCE: PEW HISPANIC CENTER
