Last month, regular Globe and Mail contributor Clifford Orwin wrote that Hillary Clinton had already met her Waterloo. Clinton is finished
"She met her Waterloo when Senator Barack Obama, having won eight straight primaries, surpassed her in the tally of elected delegates. It's all downhill from here," he wrote Feb. 19, notwithstanding primaries in Ohio and Texas, and even Pennsylvania in April.
So Ms. Clinton's nail-biting victories Tuesday in Ohio and Texas Race still on as Clinton posts key wins don't change much? Prof. Orwin doesn't think so, and he was online to defend his delegate-based thesis and to respond to your questions. Your questions and Prof. Orwin's answers appear at the bottom of this page.
Clifford Orwin is a professor of political science, a fellow of St. Michael's College, and director of the program in political philosophy and international affairs at the University of Toronto.
University of Toronto Professor Clifford Orwin.
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He teaches the history of political thought, with emphasis on classical, early modern, and Jewish political thought. He is also the author of several books.
He has also published as a journalist in a variety of newspapers and periodicals. His work has been translated into French, Spanish, Portuguese, Japanese, and Hebrew.
Prof. Orwin received his M.A. and Ph.D. from Harvard University and his B.A. from Cornell. He has taught as a visitor at Harvard, the University of Chicago, and Michigan State University, and has held briefer visitorships at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales, Paris; the Hebrew University of Jerusalem; and the Universidade Catolica Portuguesa, Lisbon.
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Estanislao (Stan) Oziewicz, Foreign Editor, globeandmail.com: Prof. Orwin, it is a pleasure to have you with us today. Your thesis has provoked much thought and many questions and comments. Let's wade right in.
Joe Palooka, from Toronto: Prof. Orwin, you are bang on with your analysis. The numbers just do not favour Hillary Clinton. Even if she wins Pennsylvania, that primary is in late April and Barack Obama has yet to begin campaigning there. Moreover, the vast majority of the remaining states and territories will go to Mr. Obama, including North Carolina, which has nearly the same amount of delegates as Pennsylvania. What really frustrates me is seeing in many media outlets - and among Clinton supporters - that somehow Ms. Clinton is back in this race after having 'come back' on March 4. Do they not realize that Mr. Obama, about one month ago, had been down 15-20 percentage points in Ohio and Texas, and that he lost by only 10 points in the former state and by only 2 in the latter? How is that a 'victory' for Ms. Clinton? Moreover, Mr. Obama may end up with more delegates once all is counted in the four March 4 states. At worst, Ms. Clinton will have gained a single-digit amount of delegates - and that from her 'firewall' states. Her victory, if it can be called that, was a moral one at best. Care to comment?
Prof. Orwin: I agree entirely. Still, Ms. Clinton did win both states, and although the victory in Ohio was predictable and that in Texas so narrow, she did exact a large toll in terms of Mr. Obama's momentum. He had won 11 in row, but on this night lost three of four. The race is no longer a triumphant rush to coronation, and Mr. Obama must address some issues that suggest his possible vulnerability in November. Worst from his point of view (and that of the Democratic Party), the struggle for the nomination will now continue indefinitely, perhaps (although I still doubt it) until the bitter end, at a great cost in energy, bad feelings, and money that would be better spent in battling the Republicans. Did you notice that in his speech in San Antonio, Mr. Obama focused primarily on Mr. McCain? He'll wish that he enjoyed that luxury more often.
