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COLUMBUS, OHIO — What does a Florida Democrat have to do to get her vote counted?
The race for the Democratic presidential nomination could go all the way to the Democratic National Convention in Denver in the last week of August.
If so, then the problem of the banned delegates from Florida and Michigan becomes the most potent question hanging over the race. And the solution could make for one long, hot summer in Miami and Detroit.
The results of mini Super Tuesday remain ambiguous. New York Senator Hillary Clinton will probably net somewhere between four and 12 delegates, once the results of the Texas caucuses are added to the state's primary. (Those caucuses appear to have favoured Illinois Senator Barack Obama.)
The result leaves Mr. Obama still in possession of a commanding lead in pledged delegates, with that lead likely to widen after Wyoming weighs in on Saturday and Mississippi on Tuesday.
Nonetheless, Ms. Clinton has every reason to carry on with her campaign, and in her victory speech Tuesday night, she appeared to make a compact with voters in those states who have still to be heard from.
"In states like Pennsylvania and so many others, people are watching this historic campaign, and they want their turn to help make history," she declared. "They want their voices to count. And they should. They should be heard."
Puerto Rico, June 7, here we come.
This contest is likely to seesaw back and forth over the next three months. Both sides will throw everything they've got at Pennsylvania, which holds its primary on April 22. Ms. Clinton needs a win there to keep her momentum alive; Mr. Obama needs a win there as well, to prove that he can win a big, northern industrial state. His weakness among blue-collar voters is the largest shadow that hangs over his candidacy.
Even if Pennsylvania does not go his way, however, Mr. Obama can probably count on a comeback in North Carolina, which has 115 delegates on offer, compared with Pennsylvania's 158, reinforcing doubts about Ms. Clinton's ability to win southern states.
In fact, an examination of the likely outcome of all the remaining states only confirms the impression that the primaries will end without anything really changing.
In that case, both Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama could decide to go to the convention in Denver at the end of August, hoping that they can win the majority of superdelegates and uncommitted delegates, such as those still attached to John Edwards's suspended campaign.
But before Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean can gavel that convention to order, Michigan and Florida will have to be dealt with.
To recap: The states of Michigan (pledged delegates: 128) and Florida (pledged delegates: 210) decided to hold primaries in January, in defiance of Democratic National Committee rules. As the result, the DNC stripped both states of their delegates.
The states went ahead with their votes anyway. No candidates campaigned or advertised in the states. In Michigan's case, all of the major candidates except Ms. Clinton removed their names from the ballot. On Jan. 15, Ms. Clinton took 55 per cent of the vote, 5 per cent went to Congressman Dennis Kucinich, while 40 per cent of voters declared themselves uncommitted.
In Florida, although no one campaigned in the state, the law required all the names to remain on the ballot. There, Ms. Clinton took 50 per cent of the vote, while 33 per cent went to Mr. Obama and 14 per cent to Mr. Edwards.
Not surprisingly, the Clinton campaign wants the DNC to reverse itself and seat the Florida and Michigan delegates. Her huge leads in these states would essentially wipe out Mr. Obama's advantage in pledged delegates.
"It's a mistake for the Democratic Party to punish these two states," Ms. Clinton said yesterday. "I don't see how a Democratic nominee goes forward alienating two of the most important states."
There are 10 million people in Michigan and 18 million in Florida.
Yesterday, the governors of both states agreed with her, saying in a joint statement that it is "reprehensible" the voices of 5.2 million people who voted in the two primaries would be silenced.
Also not surprisingly, the Obama camp strenuously objects to changing the rules, since Ms. Clinton would win, by default, two states in which Mr. Obama did not campaign. In Michigan, he did not even have his name on the ballot.
Refusing to seat the Florida delegates would be especially poignant, since it was the Supreme Court's decision to stop a recount of votes in that state that, Democrats believe, gave the 2000 presidential election to George W. Bush.
The only solution might be do-overs. The Democratic National Committee would authorize, and pay for, new primaries in both states. Those primaries would probably be held in May or June.
New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine yesterday urged exactly that, saying the states deserved to have their voices heard at the Democratic convention.
Mr. Corzine is a Clinton supporter, which might mean that the Clinton campaign is amenable to the idea.
The Obama campaign might be as well.
"We would like to see Florida and Michigan represented," senior campaign strategist David Axelrod told reporters yesterday. "We'll let the DNC resolve that. We'd love to see a resolution to that."
If Michigan and Florida do hold summer primaries, the impact on the campaign would be massive. Not only would this make the Democratic primary campaign the longest ever, by far, but the result of the two contests could have a huge impact on the campaign, establishing one of the candidates as the overwhelming front-runner, and causing a stampede of uncommitted superdelegates to his or her side.
Or, the results could be ambiguous, just like Iowa and New Hampshire, Super Tuesday and mini Super Tuesday. The only thing that Democrats can take comfort in is the thought that, one way or another, they're bound to have a candidate by Labour Day.
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Winning conditions
To win the U.S. Democratic presidential nomination, one candidate needs to gain the majority of delegates. But to get delegates, it helps to be the front-runner, and that's a matter of interpretation. Look at the delegate count, states won, and one version of the popular vote, and Barack Obama is ahead. Consider the size of the states won, and a different measure of the popular vote, and Hillary Clinton has the edge.
DELEGATE COUNT
| Before March 4 | On March 4 | Super-delegates | Total delegates | |
| Obama | 1,187 | 173 | 204 | 1,564 |
| Before March 4 | On March 4 | Super-delegates | Total delegates | |
| Clinton | 1,035 | 185 | 243 | 1,463 |
2025
Number of delegates needed for nomination
POPULAR VOTE (millions of votes)
TOTAL POPULAR VOTE
Obama: 13, 522,829
Clinton: 13,563,192
TOTAL POPULAR VOTE, MINUS FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN*
Obama: 12, 946,615
Clinton: 12,363,897
*Delegates from Michigan and Florida are disqualified because both states broke party rules
