For reasons explained yesterday (and last year), I'm less than eager to read too much into last night's results. Yes, the Greens should be happy - but they tend to do well in by-elections, where protest votes are a lot easier to register. Yes, the NDP's plunging share of the popular vote suggests its Hamptonesque strategy isn't working - but it only really dropped in Toronto, and one of those two ridings was muddied by having a former NDP premier in the mix. Yes, Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River blew up in Stephane Dion's face - but the events in that riding over the past few months were so bizarre (culminating in the pitiful 25% voter turnout) that it really doesn't tell us anything about national trends.
There is one significant change after last night, though: Bob Rae is now in the House of Commons. And while that result was never really in question, it still significantly alters the dynamic on the Liberal benches.
For reasons best known to himself, Rae sabotaged his own leadership bid by acting like a jerk - tossing away his earnest image in favour of a sense of entitlement that no candidate (let alone one who's spent most of his life in another party) should project. The message, more or less, was that Liberals were so lucky to have him that he didn't even need policies or a vision for the country. Several supporters of other candidates told me that he was so dismissive on the convention floor that going to him on later ballots became a non-starter.
That being said, the Liberals are lucky to have him in the House. He's been a strong foreign affairs critic from the outside, and he'll be better from within. This is a guy who knows how to do Question Period; whatever his faults as Ontario's premier, he more than proved his mettle as an opposition politician before then. And even more so than Michael Ignatieff, he'll help make up some of the gravitas that Dion lacks.
Critics will point out that Dion has already had one front-bencher looking more leader-like in the House; now he's going to have two of them. And they're right, of course. Try as he might, the floor of the Commons will never be the right arena for him - and now it's going to be more obvious than ever. But there's a simple answer for that: stay the hell away.
Truth is, Dion has absolutely nothing to gain from Question Period. Most Canadians don't pay attention to it anyway, and to the extent that they do none of them are going to be impressed by what they see from him. So why not leave Ignatieff and Rae to hold down the fort more days than not, and hit the road in search of places where he can actually help his cause?
Yes, the Tories would have fun mocking him for being an absentee leader. Yes, the press gallery would take its potshots. But while they were doing that, Dion could be off scoring big hits in ridings across the country - landing on the front-page of local newspapers just by turning up in their towns, meeting with key community groups, turning up on local newscasts. Meanwhile, the government could still be held accountable in the House - more accountable than Dion could probably hold it.
It's not an ideal scenario. You'd rather have a strong leader at the centre of the action, and there's a danger of losing control of caucus the more you're away. But Dion will ultimately be judged by the results of the next election, and the time he's spending in Ottawa is putting him no closer to winning it. Now that Rae will be spending more time there, Dion might as well spend less.
