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OTTAWA — Monday's mixed by-election results brought little clarity to the Liberal Party's dilemma of whether to bring down the Conservatives, with Leader Stéphane Dion unwilling to shed light yesterday on whether he is now ready to pull the pin on Parliament.
Mr. Dion told reporters that the party's main concern continues to be that the House of Commons operate efficiently, but he did not rule out the possibility of trying to engineer the government's defeat.
“We were always ready for an election, but we will choose our time, and our priority is to be sure that this government will be kept accountable and that Parliament will work,” Mr. Dion said in the wake of the four by-elections.
The Liberals handily won two Toronto ridings with increased majorities, but lost a previously held riding in Northern Saskatchewan and won a razor-thin victory in Vancouver Quadra, a seat they had previously held comfortably.
Liberal candidate Joyce Murray celebrates her by-election win with Liberal MP Ujal Dosanjh in Vancouver on Monday. (Jonathan Hayward/The Canadian Press)
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Most observers and some Liberals said the results weren't strong enough for Mr. Dion to resolve the impasse in which the party finds itself in the House of Commons. Because of static polling numbers and other issues, Liberal MPs have been forced to ensure the survival of the government and allow the NDP and the Bloc Québécois the luxury of voting against government policy without risking an election.
But one Liberal said yesterday that NDP Leader Jack Layton could find himself having to support the Tories in the House in the future, because of his own party's by-election performance.
The NDP and the Greens polled almost exactly the same numbers in three of the four ridings contested Monday.
“What's Jack going to do?” asked the prominent Grit.
A senior Conservative agreed that Mr. Layton's party was hurt by the results, saying the NDP may be moving itself too far toward the middle of the political spectrum and losing votes on its left to the Greens.
The Tory added that his party was heartened by the results, noting that in seven by-elections since last fall – none of which were represented by the Conservatives – the party has won two and come close in two others. Moreover, the governing parties rarely do well in by-elections.
Newly elected Liberal Bob Rae told CTV's Mike Duffy Live yesterday that Canadians may find the Liberals focusing more on the strength of their team. Monday's by-elections also saw the election of former leadership candidate Martha Hall Findlay and former B.C. provincial cabinet minister Joyce Murray.
Liberal sources said those who might want to push for an election would first have to find an issue to take to Canadians.
“Notwithstanding the timing of the election, what will be his narrative to defeat Harper and convince Canadians he can be PM?,” asked one Liberal strategist.
“[I] don't see anything in the numbers that would give us a big push, although one could argue Rae and Martha Hall Findlay will help substantially in building the team narrative,” the strategist said.
University of Waterloo political scientist Peter Woolstencroft said the bottom line is that the Liberals entered the by-elections with three safe seats and emerged with two. He said now would be a bad time for Mr. Dion to spark the government's fall.
Still another Liberal strategist said the results do not bar Mr. Dion from going to the polls if he wants to avoid the continued criticism he is receiving in Parliament for propping up the Tories.
“I think [Mr. Dion] wants to go before June. [It's a] matter of finding the right thing to run on,” said another strategist. “You need a national issue.”
“The environment? You need to have something to say about the environment. Economy? Well, we all want a better economy.
"Health care? Talk about training doctors? … Aside from writing bigger cheques, what can you do?”
One anti-Dion Liberal said Mr. Dion should carry the can for the loss in Northern Saskatchewan, where the leader appointed the candidate.
“You hand-pick candidates and one you get hammered in and the other one you scrape by at the skin of your nose. When you're in opposition, usually there is a government protest vote and, in this instance, there isn't one.”
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