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"Monday's mixed by-election results brought little clarity to the Liberal Party's dilemma of whether to bring down the Conservatives, with Leader Stéphane Dion unwilling to shed light on whether he is now ready to pull the pin on Parliament," The Globe's Brian Laghi and Jane Taber write today in their article Mixed results provide little clarity for Liberals
"Mr. Dion told reporters that the party's main concern continues to be that the House of Commons operate efficiently, but he did not rule out the possibility of trying to engineer the government's defeat," they wrote.
"We were always ready for an election, but we will choose our time, and our priority is to be sure that this government will be kept accountable and that Parliament will work," Mr. Dion said in the wake of the four by-elections.
Mr. Laghi and Ms. Taber noted that the Liberals handily won two Toronto ridings with increased majorities, but lost a previously held riding in Northern Saskatchewan and won a razor-thin victory in Vancouver Quadra, a seat they had previously held comfortably.
Globe Ottawa bureau chief Brian Laghi
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"Most observers and some Liberals said the results weren't strong enough for Mr. Dion to resolve the impasse in which the party finds itself in the House of Commons," they wrote.
"Because of static polling numbers and other issues, Liberal MPs have been forced to ensure the survival of the government and allow the NDP and the Bloc Québécois the luxury of voting against government policy without risking an election."
On Tuesday, Mr. Laghi wrote: "A recent rough patch of political controversy that included allegations of Tory efforts to buy the vote of the late Chuck Cadman has failed to dent the popularity of Stephen Harper's Conservatives.
In his article about a new Globe-CTV poll, Cadman, NAFTA controversies fail to cut into Tory support, Mr. Laghi noted:
"A Strategic Counsel survey for The Globe and Mail/CTV News found the Tories had the support of 38 per cent of the electorate, down only one point from last month. The Stéphane Dion-led Liberals remained static at 27 per cent, while the NDP jumped two points to 14 per cent and the Greens stayed the same at 12."
Strategic Counsel managing partner Tim Woolstencroft said it appears that increasing anxiety about the economy is causing Canadians to stick with the Tories.
"Probably the Cadman story is holding them back a little bit, but it really is the economy that's starting to separate Harper from Dion," Mr. Woolstencroft said.
"As people begin to get nervous over the economy, they're going to go to strength of leadership and we know the Prime Minister has that over Dion."
The survey found that 32 per cent of voters surveyed feel the Cadman controversy – in which Mr. Harper is alleged to have been aware of financial incentives offered to the late Independent MP for his vote to defeat the Liberal government – has had some or a good deal of influence on the way they view the government.
Another 27 per cent feel the same way about the leak of confidential information about the views of U.S. presidential candidate Barrack Obama on NAFTA.
The Tories have launched an internal investigation into how information was leaked about a visit between Mr. Obama's economic adviser and a Canadian diplomat, in which the adviser reportedly said that Mr. Obama's opposition to NAFTA was more politics than policy.
Much of the rest of the poll was also good news for the Tories, added Greg Lyle, a pollster with Innovative Research Group.
For example, despite a poll result that shows 31 per cent of Canadians believe the economy is getting worse, only 20 per cent believe a future recession would be the fault of the Canadian government. Fifty per cent say it would be the fault of a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
Mr. Lyle said the only disquieting news for the Tories is a softening of support in Quebec and an inability to make more gains in Ontario.
Regardless of where you stand on the federal parties, it's a fascinating situation.
So we are pleased that Mr. Laghi was online earlier today to take your questions on the poll, the by-elections and other issues on The Hill_Live, our weekly discussion on federal politics.
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