Americans are a proud and patriotic people. They live in the world's only superpower. They have the highest standard of living in the world, measured by per-capita income. Today, however, they are perplexed, anxious.
Powerful countries expect to control many events, not have events control them; the most powerful country expects to control all events, and to respond to the unforeseen in dramatic, conclusive ways. Smaller countries accept that they are takers of world events, and use whatever influence they can, with others, to mould them.
Americans seem to have lost control of their ability to make decisions that will produce satisfactory results. Their deep faith in and love for their country remains unimpaired; their belief in its ability to get a grip on domestic and international problems has been shaken.
For some years now, basic problems have gone unaddressed and have worsened in the United States: fiscal and trade imbalances, unfunded liabilities for health care and Social Security, and the design and execution of a foreign policy that has sent U.S. prestige to postwar lows.
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It was not supposed to be this way after the Cold War ended. Supreme militarily, untroubled economically, the U.S. sailed through the 1990s. Russia was down, out and friendly. China was only beginning its spectacular rise. Terrorism had struck, but far away: in Africa and the Middle East. Afghanistan, having thrown out the Soviets, seemed out of sight, in hand.
The United States could reduce its defence budget (the "peace dividend") and pick and choose its spots to intervene militarily (Rwanda, no; Bosnia, no and yes; Haiti, a little), enjoying a soaring stock market, the high-technology boom, rising housing prices and a balanced budget.
Today, according to Pew Center polls, 70 per cent of Americans are dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Eight-one per cent believes economic conditions are "fair or poor." New, depressing economic news arrives almost daily. President George W. Bush's approval rating stands at 33 per cent; that of the Democratic-controlled Congress at 21 per cent.
A staggering 80 per cent say they want "change." This share of voters far eclipses the share who wanted change after eight years each of presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.
The terrorist attacks of 9/11 were the most evident manifestation of events being out of control. The sense of vulnerability, even fear, does not guide Americans in their daily lives, but it has become part of the country's political discourse and shapes its spending priorities. In addition to the immense bureaucracy of the Department of Homeland Security, the airport searches and passport requirements, the curtailment of civil liberties, the torturing of prisoners, there was also the invasion of Iraq, the linchpin of the Bush administration's "war on terror."
The invasion and occupation were supposed to be easy, like a half-hour on the treadmill for a seasoned athlete. Instead, the U.S. is pinned down, caught between two broad options: to maintain or intensify military deployments with as many as 160,000 troops, for a long time, hoping for political stability; or to withdraw from Iraq with the possibility, or likelihood, of sectarian violence and civil war.
Afghanistan was supposed to be cleared of the Taliban, the friends of al-Qaeda, the murderers of Americans. Instead, the insurgency there has returned with a vengeance in certain parts of the country. Pakistan was supposed to be a reliable ally in the "war on terror." Yet the country has become the most dangerous in the world: unstable, nuclear-armed, run until recently by a dictator, incapable of exerting serious pressure against religious fanatics in its own territory.
Russia has returned to the world stage in a truculent fashion, featuring the return of 19th-century Great Russian chauvinism. The drunken, friendly Boris Yeltsin has yielded to the stern Vladimir Putin. China has become so economically powerful so fast, and its military budget has increased so rapidly, that Americans wonder how long it will be before their undisputed standing as the world's only superpower will last.
COLD COMFORT
China also holds more than $1-trillion in U.S. debt, which itself stands above $9-trillion. China's trade surplus with the U.S. remains huge. Jobs continue to move from the U.S. to China. It is cold comfort to hollowed-out towns and workers at empty mills that these moves might keep costs down in the U.S., make companies lean and lower inflationary pressures. Pew Center surveys of world opinion now show support for free trade lowest in the United States of all the countries surveyed.
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