WASHINGTON — Hillary Clinton sent out a message last weekend that she may live to regret.
“I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started and until we see what happens in the next 10 contests and until we resolve Florida and Michigan,” the candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination said in the newspaper interview. “And if we don't resolve it, we'll resolve it at the convention – that's what credentials committees are for.”
Ms. Clinton's vow to wage a floor fight to seat the disqualified Michigan and Florida delegates at the Democratic National Convention may well provoke a stampede of support to Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Because if Ms. Clinton carries out her promise, or threat, she could tear the party apart.
Minnesota Senator and superdelegate Amy Klobuchar announced yesterday she would support Mr. Obama.
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Ms. Clinton's lead among superdelegates has shrunk to 32, with 333 still to decide.
The Wall Street Journal reports that North Carolina's seven Democratic House members are planning to endorse Mr. Obama.
Phil Bredesen, democratic governor of Tennessee and a neutral superdelegate, has called on superdelegates to caucus when the primary season ends June 3 and settle on a nominee. While Mario Cuomo, former governor of New York, urged a joint ticket (he didn't specify who should be on top) to prevent what could turn into “a Democratic disaster.”
This exodus of support to Mr. Obama, coupled with calls from those remaining neutral for a swift end to the race, could swell in light of Ms. Clinton's vow to pursue a scorched-earth strategy, if necessary, to win the nomination.
There is no good reason for Ms. Clinton to quit the race right now. She is practically tied with Mr. Obama in the popular vote, and has a good chance of winning a majority of the delegates in the 10 remaining contests.
Nonetheless, she has no realistic hope of erasing Mr. Obama's lead in pledged delegates – unless she tries to erase that lead on the floor of the convention in August.
Ms. Clinton is determined to have the Michigan and Florida delegations seated. The Democratic National Committee disqualified the two states for holding the primaries early. Nonetheless, Ms. Clinton handily won both states. (Mr. Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan.) Ms. Clinton could, however, appeal to the party's credentials committee, asking it to overturn the DNC leadership's decision. If the credentials committee voted to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations, Ms. Clinton would narrow the delegate gap.
She could then try to convince (a) uncommitted superdelegates, (b) delegates who were committed to John Edwards before he withdrew from the race, and (c) delegates pledged to Mr. Obama but willing to change their minds.
If she succeeded, Mr. Obama's supporters could declare the nomination had been stolen by legal trickery. If she failed, the convention could still be a politically bloody affair, aiding the fortunes of Republican rival John McCain.
And it is likely that Ms. Clinton would fail. Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist who managed Al Gore's campaign in 2000, concluded that the credentials committee would be unsympathetic to any appeal by Ms. Clinton.
“[Democratic National Committee chairman] Howard Dean has already appointed 25 members,” to the committee, she observed Sunday on ABC's This Week. Mr. Dean's hand-picked delegates would be unlikely to vote to overturn his own committee's ruling on Florida and Michigan.
As well, each state will send three representatives to the credentials committee, Ms. Brazile went on. Mr. Obama is far ahead of Ms. Clinton in states won.
“So do the math,” she concluded. “This is not healthy. It's not what the Democrats would like.”
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