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HARARE — Zimbabwe's independent electoral monitors will imminently announce that the opposition leads in Zimbabwe's national elections.
The Globe and Mail has learned that the Zimbabwe Election Support Network data show that with 433 polling stations sampled, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has 49.5 per cent of the vote; President Robert Mugabe has 42 per cent and independent candidate Simba Makoni has 8 per cent, according to people familiar with the figures. The margin of error is 2 per cent.
Under Zimbabwean law, if no candidate takes 50 per cent plus one vote, there must be a run-off between the top two candidates within 21 days. In the event of a run-off, Mr. Makoni's supporters would almost certainly back Mr. Mugabe.
This news has enormous significance: the opposition will be massively bolstered by the fact that Mr. Mugabe was shown to finish second in a poll, for the first time since he took power here at independence in 1980. It suggests that efforts of his Zanu-PF party to rig the vote were not successful.
Supporters of Zimbabwe ruling party ZANU PF celebrate in Mbere township in Harare Monday, as first results in the general elections are announced. Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change and President Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF were level-pegging as the results trickled in from a weekend general election. (Alexander Joe/AFP/Getty Images)
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This is also a courageous act on the part of the monitors, who are defying the government, which has insisted that only its own Zimbabwe Electoral Commission can release results.
Mr. Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change has repeatedly claimed victory in this election since shortly after polls closed on Saturday. Party secretary Tendai Biti said today that the party has photographs of all 4,000 polling stations showing the results posted as ballots were counted, and that these show the MDC has as much as two-thirds of the vote nationally. But the MDC has not made its own figures public in the same way that the election network is about to do.
The Electoral Commission released no results until 36 hours after polls closed and has progressed at a glacial pace all day. The latest official figures have less than a quarter of constituencies counted, with a one-seat lead to Zanu-PF.
The release of this data is a significant move for democracy in Zimbabwe but it does not realistically change the fact that the electoral commission may proceed with the release of figures that show a Zanu-PF win, as is widely feared here.
Few people here believe that Mr. Mugabe is prepared to leave office. The next few hours may prove crucial in the process of political change here.
