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It's a funny thing, this 82-game regular-season schedule.
NHL players pay lip service to the fact that a win in October is as important as a win in December, which is as important as a win in early April, but you never get the sense they actually believe it — or until they arrive at the final week and find themselves with just enough of a cushion to sneak into the playoffs.
Take the NHL's Western Conference race for example. If playoffs were determined only by how a team finished up, then the Edmonton Oilers would be on their way to the post-season, thanks to their wonderfully entertaining surge of the past seven weeks, which came after injuries to Shawn Horcoff, Sheldon Souray, Ethan Moreau and others looked as if it would doom them to the conference cellar again.
From the Calgary Flames' perspective, a handful of early victories — and in particular, an uncharacteristic team-record, six-game road win streak just before Christmas — is the only reason they still have a chance to qualify for the playoffs, while the Oilers' hopes ended on Tuesday night, with a heart-breaking 3-2 loss to their provincial rivals.
There is little doubt that since just before the trading deadline, the Oilers have been playing the best hockey in the division. It was the same last year — the best team in the Northwest was the Colorado Avalanche, who lost only two of their final 20, but came up one point short of Calgary in the race for eighth spot because of a January downturn.
Even on the night their playoff hopes came to a mathematical end, the Oilers outplayed the Flames and were a little unlucky not to get the win. Tied at 1-1, the Flames scored the go-ahead goal on a harmless shot — Alex Tanguay flipping the puck in desperation at the net with time running out — which inexplicably found its way past goaltender Dwayne Roloson.
After the Oilers tied it in the third, the Flames' Owen Nolan was in the right place at the right time, as the puck pin-balled off his centre Matthew Lombardi and left him staring at an open net. Nolan had gone 21 previous games without a goal, but he retained enough of his goal-scoring instincts to bury the chance when it presented itself.
So the Oilers will need to console themselves with the fact that they've done a lot of rebuilding in a short period of time. Compared to last season, when they couldn't wait for the year to end, after falling completely apart, there are half-a-dozen reasons for optimism — and not just because of the trio of youngsters (Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano and Robert Nilsson) that keyed the late charge. Right now, they probably have two-thirds of the best fourth line in hockey, with Curtis Glenncross and Kyle Brodziak demonstrating that they can create the necessary energy to play that role, and also contribute on the score-sheet. Next year, when Horcoff, Souray and Moreau return — and assuming their blue-chip youngsters don't go backwards or plateau — they could be one of the most entertaining teams in the conference.
Meanwhile, the Flames stumbled out of dodge and landed in Minnesota for the third stop of their four-game road trip, knowing that a single point in either of the next two games — Thursday against the Wild or Saturday against the Vancouver Canucks — will be enough to secure a playoff spot. With two wins and the right combination of results elsewhere — Colorado would have to knock off Minnesota on the final day of the season Sunday — they could even sneak through and claim first place in the Northwest.
Flames' coach Mike Keenan knows the arithmetic and says all the eventualities have been communicated to his team, in advance of Thursday night's latest edition of the most important game of the season.
"We're aware of the math," said Keenan Wednesday. "We have an opportunity still ahead of us, because we're playing Minnesota, it's in our control; and the tiebreaker goes to us even if they go into an overtime situation. So we are focusing on that."
The Flames have won five in a row and eight of their last nine games against the Wild, an edge that Keenan can't quite explain.
"They have all been tight, really tight, and we've played better defensively against this team than any other team in the league, and I have no explanation why," said Keenan. "Maybe because they've got some explosive players, particularly (Marian) Gaborik that we are really aware of his skill set and we know he's a shooter. So I think we've got a good handle on them.
"Now, at the same time, I think you were there when we played Minnesota, they have heavy artillery (Chris Simon, Derek Boogaard, Aaron Voros) and we are able to at least match up to that, so that was probably another factor."
Minnesota's decision to bulk up at the trading deadline probably had a lot to do with the possibility of facing Calgary in the first round, a team that generally wins the battle of the boards when they play each other. Whether that arm's race and everything it implies will carry over into Thursday's game is anybody's guess.
The possibilities, if no longer endless, are still pretty varied for the Flames — third, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth place in the conference are all within Calgary's grasp, with two games remaining. Like it or not, that is the reality of the current era, when some games are worth two points and others three.
The one happy byproduct of a race to the finish is that you no longer hear the most common complaint of the 21-team era - about how meaningless the regular season is. It means something now alright. Just ask the 14 teams who'll be watching from the outside, come Monday morning, after the first-round match-ups are set.
