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PHILADELPHIA — On a traffic island in front of city hall, a small group of women hold signs, one of which says "Honk for Hillary." There's a lot of honking.
"He's outspending her, but she's beating him," Valerie Duhaime yells above the noise. "Maybe that says something about the candidates."
Barack Obama acknowledged yesterday that he is likely to lose today's Pennsylvania primary to Hillary Clinton. But if the outcome is close, he will claim moral victory, having convinced the media that losing the Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania primaries is no big deal. If Ms. Clinton wins emphatically, she will argue to uncommitted superdelegates that Mr. Obama can't take the states that matter.
It all comes down to organization. Who can get out more of their vote? The answer reveals a simple but profound difference between the Obama and Clinton campaigns. In Pennsylvania, as elsewhere, he has the money; she has the machine.
Barack Obama talks during a visit to the Bethlehem Brew Works while walking around Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. (AFP/Getty Images)
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Pennsylvania is now thought to be the most expensive state primary in history. Mr. Obama has spent an estimated $8-million (U.S.) in televised advertising alone, compared with Ms. Clinton's $3.2-million.
Ms. Clinton is getting dangerously close to hitting a financial wall.
Fundraising records released yesterday by the Federal Elections Commission show that Mr. Obama had raised $41-million in March and had $42-million cash on hand.
Ms. Clinton raised only $20-million, had $8-million cash on hand, and $10-million in debt.
"The numbers are what the numbers are," Howard Wolfson, Ms. Clinton's director of communications, said yesterday in a conference call with reporters. He said the Clinton campaign had more than enough funds to complete the primary in Pennsylvania, and carry on to North Carolina and Indiana, which hold their primaries on May 6.
If money were all that mattered in politics, Mr. Obama would have sewn up this race months ago. But organization matters even more. Ms. Clinton's deep ties to the Democratic Party establishment allowed her to secure crucial endorsements early in the race. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Governor Ed Rendell has thrown his formidable political machine into the fight on her behalf.
Mr. Obama, on the other hand, has had to build his organization from scratch.
If political scientist Michael Hagen were a politician, having to choose between access to money or access to an existing political organization, "on balance I'd rather have the existing organization," says the specialist in presidential elections at Philadelphia's Temple University.
Prof. Hagen believes that today's vote is a test of each campaign's ability to bring competing constituencies to the polls: the young and the newly engaged supporters of Mr. Obama, and the older, more conservative voters who incline toward Ms. Clinton.
Mr. Obama's base is enthusiastic and committed, Prof. Hagen observes, while Ms. Clinton's base "has actually voted before. They know where the polling stations are."
Most observers believe that Philadelphia will go heavily for Mr. Obama; most of the rest of the state will support Ms. Clinton, and the contest will be decided in the suburbs and bedroom communities outside Philly.
Proof of the first part of the thesis can be found in the Rittenhouse Square neighbourhood - an upscale enclave of affluent townhouses mere blocks from the city's office towers.
Lincoln Mitchell and his eight-year-old son, Asher, are down from New York for the day to help the Obama campaign. Their task is to affix door hangers - cards promoting Mr. Obama and urging people to vote - to the front doors of homes where Obama supporters have been previously identified. (Note to Obama campaign: Your door-hanger elastic bands suck.) Almost every door in the neighbourhood is getting a door hanger.
Downtown Philadelphia is home to the very well off - most of whom are white - and the not well off at all - many of whom are black.
"Affluent liberals and African-Americans are the base of the Democratic Party," Mr. Mitchell observes. They support Mr. Obama en masse. "Why is Hillary Clinton running against the base of her own party?"
But Mr. Obama has great trouble wooing Reagan Democrats: more conservative working-and-lower-middle-class white voters. There are a lot of them in Pennsylvania, and Ms. Clinton is counting on them to (a) ignore Mr. Obama's televised blandishments and (b) come out and vote today. And if they need a ride to the polls, Ed Rendell's machine is happy to offer a lift.
That is why Pennsylvania is likely to be hers, tonight by a little or maybe by a lot. And then everyone will move on, and do it all over again in Indiana, the last state - since Mr. Obama is expected to take North Carolina handily, and the other remaining states have few delegates to offer - where delegates and momentum are at stake.
In front of city hall, youthful Obama supporters have arrived to counter the Clinton honkers.
"Fired up! Ready to go!" they shout. "Fired up! Ready to go!"
The Clinton women whoop. The cars honk.
Politics is grand.
PRIMARY PORTRAIT
Older, whiter and more female than the nation as a whole, Pennsylvania looks like Hillary Clinton country. Wealthier, better educated and more African-American than the rest of the state, Pennsylvania's thickly settled southeast corner could belong to Barack Obama. The six-week battle for the state's voters ends today.
THE STATE DIVIDE
| Pa. | USA | |
| Rural dwellers | 16.0% | 20.0% |
| Urban dwellers | 84.0% | 80.0% |
| White population | 85.7% | 80.1% |
| Black population | 10.7% | 12.8% |
| Latino population | 4.2% | 14.8% |
Mr. Obama and his allies are counting on Philadelphia and its suburbs to be the underpinnings of his campaign. They also hope to do well in Pittsburgh. Philadelphia is 44 per cent black and Pittsburgh is 26 per cent black. Both are higher-education hubs, with students and academics who tend to be Obama voters.
Between the two large cities are 7.7 million acres of farmland, with the kinds of small towns that harbour more conservative voters who, if not Republican, would be more likely to vote for Ms. Clinton.
HILLARY COUNTRY
| Pa. | USA | |
| Population over 65 | 15.2% | 12.4% |
| Women | 51.4% | 50.7% |
| Bachelor's degree | ||
| or higher | 22.4% | 24.4% |
| Per capita income | $20,880 | $21,587 |
| Below poverty line | 11.2% | 12.7% |
Ms. Clinton, as the state's old slogan used to say, has a friend in Pennsylvania. Its population of 12.4 million has a higher median age, a higher percentage of whites, a lower median household income and fewer bachelor's degrees than the country overall. These are the voters - working-class whites and voters older than 50 - who have flocked to her in past contests.
Fifteen per cent of the state's population is over the age of 65. Conversely, 10 per cent of state residents are between ages 18 and 24, a reliable pro-Obama cohort. Eighty-five per cent of the state's population is white, compared with 80 per cent for the nation.
White men have been a key swing group in this year's Democratic primaries. Ms. Clinton won the white male vote in Ohio, tied with Mr. Obama for their votes in Texas and came close in Rhode Island. In that regard, certain areas of Pennsylvania are key.
DELEGATE COUNT
| Clinton | Obama | |
| Delegates still | ||
| needed to win | 516 | 377 |
While Ms. Clinton is looking for a victory, Mr. Obama and his allies are willing to settle for a close contest and a shot at getting more delegates than she does. The delegates are distributed to the 19 congressional districts based on how Democrats performed in 2004 and in the 2006 governor's race. Congressional districts with larger numbers of delegates at stake tend to favour Mr. Obama.
Seven of the state's 19 congressional districts yield 50 of the state's 103 elected delegates. All but one of those districts are concentrated in and around Philadelphia.
At stake are 158 delegates, with 103 apportioned by how each candidate fares in each of Pennsylvania's 19 congressional districts. The remainder are distributed based on the statewide vote.
The state has 29 superdelegates - party officials and elected officials who can support whomever they choose. Fifteen have endorsed Ms. Clinton and five have endorsed Mr. Obama.
Associated Press
