7
As an adviser to four presidents, David Gergen is uniquely positioned to size up the men and woman who would be president. He is also an expert on leadership, and has written and lectured widely on the qualities a leader needs to navigate through perilous times. Next Thursday, he will be appearing in Toronto as the last speaker in this season's Grano series.
Mr. Gergen is currently a professor of public service at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government and director of its Center for Public Leadership.
He is also editor-at-large for U.S. News & World Report and a senior political analyst for CNN.
In earlier years, he served as a White House adviser to presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.
Videos
Professor of public service at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government at the Grano Speaker's series
Related Articles
He spoke with me this week about what he calls the most topsy-turvy race he can remember, and told her why he believes that the next president will face the toughest challenges since Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933.
The upshot of the Pennsylvania primary was two weakened candidates who are locked in a fight to the death. How damaging is this to the Democratic Party?
The party is getting deeply worried now about the prospects for the fall. We have a very unusual situation: The campaign landscape favours the Democrats more strongly than at any time in 30 or 40 years. Bush's negatives are the highest of any president in 70 years. He's fighting an unpopular war and the economy is deteriorating. People are hurting and they're angry. ... In ordinary circumstances, the Democrats would win the White House by five or 10 points - but here we are in a very close race.
Who has been beat up more: Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton?
The growing negativity of the campaign has diminished both of them.
Obama was a very captivating figure during the early months. He energized people in ways we have not seen since the Kennedys and he also gave us a sense for the first time that a black candidate could actually win. ...
He ran on the promise that he would offer a different kind of politics. But when he was attacked in the traditional way, he had a hard time responding. He compounded his problems with his own inartful expressions that seem condescending. Now, he looks weaker. The magic was always going to dissipate, but people expected it would happen much later. He is still the likely nominee - but he is a wounded candidate.
In the process of bringing Obama down (some would say down to earth), Hillary has been hurt too. Many Obama fans are bitter at her for being so negative and robbing them of the lightning they thought they had in a bottle.
Beyond that, by going negative she has raised doubts about her own likeability and trustworthiness. Her unfavourable rating has gone over 50 per cent. That's a remarkable number.
But didn't John McCain inherit a broken party too?
McCain has done a remarkably good job in reaching out to various elements in his party and putting the coalition back together.
He is also showing some class. In North Carolina, the Republican Party is planning to run a racially tinged ad on Obama's pastor. He's against it. He's saying, "I don't want to run this kind of campaign." McCain is emerging as the classiest of the three - so far. But again, it's early, and he has not been subject to scrutiny.
What are his vulnerabilities?
People want out of this war. They want out of Bush's economic policies. McCain is going to be painted not as a maverick but as someone who will extend the war indefinitely. There will be questions about his vitality and health.
Can he survive the hazing process? He could survive incredibly well. And he is also a very likeable man. But you've got to remember that this is a topsy-turvy race and what's true today may be untrue tomorrow.
You've said the next president will face the toughest job since FDR in 1933. Please elaborate.
We're no longer living in ordinary times. We're going through a period of great turbulence, change and challenge.
On the one hand, there's going to be the mess in foreign policy - Iraq, Iran, Pakistan. How do you extricate yourself from Iraq safely, how do you defuse the nuclear threat in Iran? Then you are going to inherit an economic mess that's much bigger than it looks. We don't know where the economy's going, but the deficits are going to be huge.
You won't have any money. In the second year of your term, the Bush tax cuts will expire, and you'll be in a big fight over tax cuts. In year three, the baby boomers start to retire en masse, and there will be enormous pressure on entitlement programs. In year four, Kyoto expires and you'll have to find a way to deal seriously with energy policy and climate change. All those issues will land on the desk of the next pres. That's why ordinary leadership will not be sufficient.
Yikes. Can any of these three possibly measure up?
There are three basic pillars for any leader, whether it's a presidency or a corporation: inner drive, judgment and character. They are all essential. All three of the candidates possess those in pretty solid ways. They would all be excellent presidents in ordinary times.
But you just said these aren't ordinary times.
In addition to the three pillars, it's very important to have at least three additional qualities. And, in those, the candidates do vary. They have to have adaptability - because the world will be both turbulent and changing.
They'll have to apply old principles in new ways. In a way, I think Hillary is the most adaptable. She certainly has the best grasp of policy. McCain, given his age, may have the greatest challenges.
The second quality is personal courage. McCain has it in abundance. He stands out above the other two. The question is whether Obama has it. People don't know. He's not tested. There's a growing sense that perhaps there's some inner weakness. That's what we'll all be looking at.
Third, it will be critically important for the next president to be a consensus builder - someone who can build large majorities at home and also large majorities of nations and people internationally to move beyond the unilateralism that we have seen in recent years. No question Barack comes out on top. Hillary is seen as the most divisive. Her approach to leadership is you build your coalition and beat up the other side to win. So you pay your money and take your choice.
In Canada, most people think America has lost its way. We're seriously worried whether you are capable of finding it again.
Don't count out America. We are very resilient people. We haven't been very good when we have termites in the basement, but when we have a wolf at the door, we're terrific. And we've got a lot of wolves at the door.
I'm not sure whether I feel reassured or not. So let's finish with the money question. For five cents, who wins the White House in November?
You'd have to say the Democrats are slightly favoured to win. But I wouldn't bet the farm.
Margaret Wente is a columnist with The Globe and Mail.
