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Losing ground?

Michael Grange, May 6, 2008 at 10:10 AM EDT

Couple of good topics here: Where would the Raptors rank if the season were to start today, and: Are people too hard on Bargnani?

Did  anyone watch Chris Paul last night? He is ridiculous.

Anyway, TNM(TM)

Hi Michael,

I believe this season has to be considered a failure but not necessarily because of the record. ...The other thing that concerns me is that we seem to be losing ground against other teams in the East. Forget about the Celtics and Pistons, they're in another stratosphere. I used to think the Cavs and Magic were reachable but they're starting to pull away, admittedly with the not inconsiderable help of a superstar on each team. But now even the Wizards and 76ers are moving in the right direction while we seem to be regressing or treading water at best. Also the playoff performance of all of the East teams that we would consider to be our immediate competition has been superior to the Raps.

Steve Graham

I think that pretty well sums it up Steve.  How would the projected Eastern Conference standing look right now, barring trades, signings and the draft?

I'd say:

1.    Boston
2.    Detroit
3.    Cleveland
4.    Orlando
5.    Washington
6.    Philadelphia
7.    Atlanta
8.    Toronto

And it's not like the Raptors would be a lock for eighth. I think it's safe to expect Chicago to make a move up; Indiana maybe; Milwaukee will be better. Charlotte played better basketball than Toronto down the stretch. Miami will have a healthy Dwayne Wade, an integrated Shawn Marion and the No.1 pick in the draft.

As well, the gap within the top eight appears to be growing. Orlando is a much better team than most people realized; Cleveland will almost certainly return to it's 50-win ways. Detroit and Boston of course, and Washington, presuming a healthy Arenas, is a team that has had some brilliant stretches the past two seasons but has had serious injury woes. If their big three is healthy and you get continued production from an improving supporting cast, is that not a team that can think about 50 wins? Philly is probably a year away, but they do have cap room to add talent. And who wouldn't trade Atlanta's top-six for the Raptors, straight up?

Mock drafts all had Bargnani going first, second or third back in '06, so why is everyone so pissed off now that a 7'0 project turned out to be a 7'0 project? Honestly, Barney had a rough (terrible) season but his flashes of brilliance are great, plus the only thing truly holding him back at the end of the year was his shot...which you know he'll get back, since it's mostly just a kink in his technique (he's throwing the ball from his palm I notice, not enough wrist action. he isn't shooting, he's aiming).

And:

Who do you think would look better in a Raptors uniform:
Luol Deng, Boris Diaw, Andrei Kirilenko, Mickael Pietrus or Jamal Crawford?
TYLER

Hey Tyler, these are some good reasons to be concerned about Bargnani:

1. He was picked first, but it's clear he won't be the best player in his draft class. Brandon Roy is that player, and barring injury he's destined to be a 10-time all-star and be a regular MVP candidate. He also plays a role - slashing, scoring, play-making wing – the Raptors are still trying to fill. As well Rudy Gay is on track to be an all-star and also plays a position the Raptors are still trying to fill. Yes, this is perfect hindsight, but then again the Raptors had unlimited foresight on Bargnani because of Gherardini.

2. He's 22, not 19. He played two seasons of Euroleague basketball prior to coming to the NBA. He was never defined as a project, although it was conceded there was longer development curve. His second NBA season wasn't flat, it was a regression. This after a sub-par performance with the Italian national team last summer.

3.  There is a concerning tendency to explain away his development lag according by citing off-court challenges, adjustment issues, minor injures etc. Truly elite performers – like someone taken at or near the top of the NBA draft – use these challenges to drive performance. What makes other people struggle literally makes them better.

4. In the same vein at one point this season Bargnani stopped doing extra work on a regular basis, according to team insiders. No one will say exactly why. A truly elite performer so closely identifies with the quality of his performance that he would never, ever, let this happen.

5. Don't be so quick to dismiss his mechanical flaws. He is supposed to be a top-flight perimeter shooter. For his game to thrive he needs to be a deadly three-point threat. Not only did various ‘kinks' creep into his game, they stayed there. This doesn't happen to premier shooters. They intuitively understand their mechanics and fix them and won't quit working at them until they are fixed. A week-long slump is an eternity for these guys.

6. Perhaps the biggest hole in his game that rarely gets mentioned is his lack of feel for the game. This gets washed over every time he makes a slick little touch pass, but that happens once a game, max. Many times he rotates the ball when he's open and shoots when he's not. He doesn't react to the defense he plans his move and gets messed up when someone anticipates it. He plays in a rush; only very occasionally does he seem to settle into a flow. The ball – rebounds, loose balls, deflections, tips – doesn't find him. There is almost no way to quantify this, but if there is a 50-50 ball on the floor or in the air some players come up with them more than others: They react faster, have softer, quicker hands and are generally more aware of what's going on at all times. I think it's safe to say this is not a strength of Bargnani's game.

 As for who I'd like to see with the Raptors, barring salary cap issues and the like?

1. Deng
2. Kirilenko
3. Crawford.
These guys could change your team. The other guys are just pieces of the puzzle.

  1. Globe Insider subscriber content
    Jim Rootham from Toronto, Canada writes: Nobody has commented on the role of luck over the past 3 years. 3 years ago the Raptors were about -3 in point differential, last year 1, this year 2.9. between this year and last they are about 3 standard deviations apart on luck. Given 2 teams with those scoring records this years Raptors team would have a better record than last years about 9 times out of 10. OTOH 2.9 isn't going to get you all that far (about 50 wins normally). You need to get to 60 wins which is in the 6 to 8 point differential area. Boston's 10 is outrageous. With normal luck they would be over 70 wins.
  2. Neil Young from Toronto, Canada writes: The discrepancy between their point differential and their W-L record this year is significant Jim, but I don't think it's luck. Close games in the NBA (post handcheck-rule-change) tend to be decided by star perimeter players making something out of nothing, so to speak. Not only do the Raptors not have such a player, they also don't have anyone who can guard such a player. As a result you end up with a point differential that suggests they were unlucky when in truth they were terrible at winning close games, and that is a defect of the club's architecture.
  3. andy c from Canada writes: purely subjective but i think in order to be an elite team in the nba you need someone who is capable of a triple double at the sf/sg position. i'm not talking about every night but once or twice a season. if you look at every playoff team this year. every team with the exception of the raps have at least one wing player who could pull off a triple double if they are on there game or at least impose his will on the game. the same cannot be said for any raptor wing player currently on the roster outside of maybe delfino who is wildly inconsistant.
  4. Michael Grange from Canada writes: I haven't delved too deep into the point differential and perhaps I should, because it does seem to be pretty correlative. But just off the top of my head I'd say the Raptors pumped up that number by blowing out bad teams on nights they were shooting very well. They'd play a dog and win by 20, play a good team and lose by 10 and play a dog (or an injured team or someone on the second night of a back-to-back) and be touch-and-go if they weren't shooting well. The one blowout creates a pretty good point differential, but doesn't say much for their consistency. It's part of being a three-point shooting team: When you're on you can blow people out.
  5. Globe Insider subscriber content
    Jim Rootham from Toronto, Canada writes: Well, if it's not luck why did they do better last year?

    And as an example, how many things had to go wrong for them to lose to Atlanta in overtime?
  6. Mauro tinto from Spain writes: just my 2 cents

    Hello, Mr Grange.

    Are you looking to work for the NY Post trying to replace Mr Vescey ?

    Yours stiles are so similar those days...

    I just would like to speak about work ethic.

    You are questioning Bargs work ethics.

    What about your own ?

    It's acceptable that a journalist write:
    Bargnani stopped doing extra work on a regular basis, according to team insiders.No one will say exactly why.

    or a good journalist is supposed to ask WHY to Bargnani himself, instead of publishing a stud interviews like you did ?

    You are lucky to write Bball and not politics otherwise it's hard to last long in the news

    on my 2 cent,
    you owe me one, after deducting the value of this article

    :)
  7. Joseph Daniel from Oakville, Canada writes: Wow Mauro that was quite a shot at Grange. I don't think it was fair to Grange. As far as AB's work ethic even an untrained eye like mine can tell Andrea had too good of a time lazying about in Italy eating Mama and Nonna's cooking. Even Bosh called AB out at the end of the season saying he needs to put more work in. Why is it that the Raptors brain trust are going to shuffle him off to Big Man Camp this summer? Seems like it is one year too late for that, but better late than never. Perhaps they waited to send him to big man camp so he will be more receptive to coaching. The guy is 22 making millions he probably thinks he knows it all. Well after a stinker of a season he is now at a crossroads. Is he going to work and become something or will he be joining hoffa in russia? The Raptor success will be directly tied to AB's success. They are mediocre now, if AB is good to real good then the Raptors will become good to really good otherwise they will be a 41 win team.
  8. Mauro tinto from Spain writes: Joseph, don't get me wrong. I 'm not questioning the content I'm questioning the method. Because I care about the writer, not about Bargs. Since Jose joined Toronto, I was happy reader of the very few good enough Bball columnist that follow the Raps but I really dislike this way of writing. Is BBall gossip ?
  9. Joseph Daniel from Oakville, Canada writes: Mauro I don't get why you are upset with Grange. This is a blog, it isn't a news paper column ala Vescey. It is Grange's Opinion based on observations. Grange is responding to Tyler's comment on Bargs. I don't see anything to complain about other than the "unnamed sources" when he could have just quoted bosh who said "andrea needs to put in work in the off season".
  10. Optimistically Cynical from Toronto, Canada writes: The margin of victory metric (Pythagorean win total), really needs to be taken with a grain of salt this year imo.

    There was simply too much of a gap in quality teams between the East and West, and given the unbalanced schedule, curve fitting wins to MOV isn't going to be as good this year as in most years.

    There were some historically bad teams. Denver beat Seattle by 60 and pumped up their season MOV by 0.75 pts, which is basically an extra win in the stat. The Raptors were able to load up on Eastern bottom feeders 3-4 times a year and only had to play 9 of the top 13 teams in the league 2 times.

    MOV works best in baseball, even better when you discount the interleague games. Larger sample size.
  11. Gus M from Canada writes: Your point 6 on Bargs could also be referring to T.J. Ford. That's him exactly (at least the first half of point 6). But the difference, I feel, is that Ford gets more of a chance to fail -- and succeed. All too often Bargnani is pulled if he misses a few shots whereas others can work through their mistakes. And then when he's out there, he's really only used to shoot. He should be a bigger part of the offence. Particularly when Ford was on, Bargnani would get the pass only as a last resort or in late clock situations. I'd like to have seen him create a bit more. You mention his pinpoint passing, and how it's there but rare. He needs to be more involved and be given more a chance to fail/succeed.
  12. Khan dor from Canada writes: Michael,

    Your 6 points re: Bargnani are right on the money. Good job.
  13. albert strauss from Toronto, Canada writes: The coaching does not seem to have improved either. This is the key to the whole stagnation.
  14. Massimiliano Frontini from Italy writes: Joseph and Mauro, I don't agree with Michael (and I sent him some e-mails). This is a one way analysis against Bargs. He's not fair when he writes sub-par performance with the italian national team. He's a good writer but he should touch with his hands some of the stuff he writes. Bargnani is the most evident problem of the Raps this year and this is obvious as he is a #1 draft pick. Anyway other players had a tough year with Sam and with a tough year I mean playing time. I guess (and if you are a bball player, you will agree) it's better when you costantly have 15 minutes each game, 20 mins each game. Not 26 - 5 - 15 - 20... Kapono, Rasho, Hump, Calderon back and forth from the bench when TJ was back. He's been unsure about the line up along the season. Look at what he did in the playoff. Just Crazy.

    I am a Bargs fan but I am not so blind. He's not a rebounder, he does not post up (yes but when in which Sam's set he will ever post up...)... but I think it's just not up to Andrea.
  15. D D from Canada writes: I really thought the defining moment of how barg's will develop was when he took the hard hit from Miami. That was really the first time someone said "welcome to the NBA". I made the comment before that at that point it would either click in that he has to muscle people back, or he would turtle up. Unfortunately, he turtled up after that. He still played the same way, passive, with slumped shoulders, not interested in taking contact on charges, rebounds, or even on his own drives. I think BC rolled the dice with Bargs and with Gherardini. At the time of the draft they were looking at Aldridge as well...who Bosh wanted to play with. They had the potential for a Texas trio in Bosh, Aldridge, and TJ...but went for an outsider who is not accustomed to American sports and lifestyle. I've had it argued that aldridge isn't a center....well neither is Bargs...and for that matter a lot of PF's currently playing center are not that either...Aldridge at least would still be able to compete at that position and still be able to bang down low..Not to mention blossom into a future potential All Star. Alas, the fans can't really dwell on what could have been...technically this team could have had Iguodala instead of Moon or Parker....or Aldridge or Roy....but we've had 2 seven foot busts, Graham over Granger (oops), various imported Euro and D leaguers, and one of the lowest team rebound totals for the past few years in the league. BC...get us a wing player that can score 20 a game and a rebound hungry big man!
  16. Khan dor from Canada writes: Great players make a (good, bad or indifferent) coach's life easy, and can function at a high level no matter who is directing their team.

    Average players, on the other hand, need a terrific coach to function at a high level or they 'under-perform' significantly.

    Andrea Bargnani is either (A) a great player or (B) not ... but his ardent supporters cannot have it both ways (i.e. by trying to have their cake and eating it too).

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