INDIANAPOLIS — Today's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina could effectively end the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Or they could transform it. Or they could simply prolong it, though perhaps not for long.
Whatever the result, those elusive uncommitted superdelegates - senior elected politicians and party officials who get to vote at the Democratic National Convention - no longer have any excuse to avoid making up their minds.
The few remaining primaries are in insignificant states. Illinois Senator Barack Obama's lead in pledged delegates will remain fixed. New York Senator Hillary Clinton's argument that only she can win in swing states and in states with large blue-collar populations will face no more important tests. The time will have come to choose.
One of three scenarios will play out tomorrow. Two of those scenarios would greatly influence the thinking of the superdelegates. The third would force them to think for themselves.
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Democratic presidential hopefuls have been traveling throughout the state in a hectic final push to try to sway voters
Polls opened early in the morning for residents in Indianapolis, Indiana to vote in the 2008 presidential primary
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He wins both states
Mr. Obama is heavily favoured to win North Carolina, which has a large black population and a smaller but influential segment of high-income technology workers. Taking the Tar Heel State should be a cinch.
Indiana, with its large population of working-class white voters, who in past contests have usually favoured Ms. Clinton, is more of a challenge. But Mr. Obama has been organizing and advertising heavily in Indiana. And fully 25 per cent of its households get their TV from Chicago, where Mr. Obama has been a household name for years.
If Mr. Obama took Indiana, he would widen his lead in both delegates and popular vote. More important, he would refute Ms. Clinton's assertion that he is unelectable in industrial, blue-collar states. The Clinton campaign would be out of momentum, arguments and probably money. The superdelegates would flock to Mr. Obama, and some time between tomorrow and June 3, when primary season ends, Ms. Clinton would likely concede.
She wins both states
Barack Obama's lead in North Carolina is down to single digits. His campaign was clearly damaged by the toxic comments of his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. And Mr. Obama's repudiation of those comments could be undermining his support among black voters who sympathize with Mr. Wright's claims of a continuing white racist conspiracy to oppress blacks.
Further, Mr. Obama may be on the losing side the gas tax debate. Both Ms. Clinton and Republican candidate John McCain want to suspend the federal gas tax over the summer to give motorists relief from skyrocketing fuel prices.
Mr. Obama has dismissed the proposal as an election gimmick that would save the average motorist only 30 cents a day while depleting the highway infrastructure fund and discouraging conservation.
Every breathing economist agrees with him. But many voters want a break, however modest and temporary it may be.
If Ms. Clinton can exploit her popularity among working-class voters to take Indiana and maximize her tendency to win the majority of late deciders in North Carolina, she might just pull off an upset double win. If she does, then we'll have a whole different race.
Mr. Obama will have lost every state primary since March 5. He will have demonstrated grave weakness in the Midwest, and a loss in North Carolina would suggest that his own base is eroding.
The superdelegates might well decide that Ms. Clinton has conclusively demonstrated she's the more electable candidate. They would flock to her, erasing her delegate gap and allowing her to claim the nomination, albeit by the narrowest of margins and with the Democratic Party deeply divided.
She takes Indiana; he takes North Carolina
This is the most likely outcome and it leaves the uncommitted superdelegates with a tough choice. Ms. Clinton will have demonstrated that she owns the Midwest and the white blue-collar vote. But Mr. Obama dominates the Atlantic seaboard, the Southeast and the Northwest. And he has the enthusiastic support of white professionals and blacks. What's a poor confused superdelegate to do?
Whatever they do, they will be under tremendous pressure to do it now. The excitement surrounding this race is spent; the divisions within the party are deepening. Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean has already publicly urged the uncommitted to get off the fence. Expect other senior party leaders - such as Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, majority leaders in the House and Senate - to add their voices to the call.
If the supers heed their party leadership, the final 230 or so who remain uncommitted could start announcing their choices as early as tomorrow, with momentum building over the coming days. Barring some last-minute scheme to seat the delegates from the disqualified Florida and Michigan primaries, the result could become clear in a matter of days or, at most, a few weeks. And if past trends among superdelegate decisions continue, that result is most likely to favour Mr. Obama.
So this could end soon. It should end. No one needs to wait for word from Montana before finally making up her mind.
