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OTTAWA — Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion has been warned by his own party pollster that his proposal to impose a carbon tax could be a tough sell in an election, insiders say.
But they say Dion is determined to forge ahead with the politically risky scheme. He's convinced that the bold step is needed to rescue both the environment and his reputation, which has been savaged by relentless Tory depictions of the Liberal Leader as a dithering, spineless weakling.
Mr. Dion is expected to unveil his proposal for putting a price on carbon before the end of June. He and select Liberal MPs will then fan out across the country over the summer to explain the complicated plan and try to soothe fears – already being stoked daily by the Tories – that it will lead to a massive tax hike on gasoline, home heating fuel and electricity.
Party pollster Michael Marzolini has repeatedly and publicly said that there's plenty of appetite among Canadians for action against climate change. But sources say Mr. Marzolini has privately warned Mr. Dion that a carbon tax is a risky way to go about it, particularly at a time when gas prices are soaring and the economy is faltering.
Liberal Leader Stephane Dion asks a question during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa Wednesday May 7.
Mr. Marzolini flatly refused to comment when contacted by The Canadian Press.
But provincial Liberals at the Ontario legislature were recently briefed on the findings of one of Mr. Marzolini's polls, conducted for a private sector client. An insider who attended the briefing said the data suggest a carbon tax would be a hard sell in the crucial province of Ontario.
According to the insider, the poll found Ontarians are overwhelmingly concerned about climate change and support slashing greenhouse gas emissions to meet Canada's commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.
Nevertheless, when respondents were given details of British Columbia's recent carbon tax plan as one way to tackle the problem, support dropped dramatically. According to the insider, the poll found 30 per cent strongly opposed to the idea and 12 per cent somewhat opposed, compared to 23 per cent strongly supportive and 25 per cent somewhat supportive.
By contrast, a Canadian Press-Harris-Decima poll last week suggested 61 per cent of Canadians support imposing a carbon tax on individuals and business that generate greenhouse-gas emissions.
Such decidedly mixed reviews worry some Liberal MPs.
“I don't think there's anybody who's anxious to put on a [campaign] T-shirt that says: ‘We want a carbon tax,' ” one Ontario MP said.
Nova Scotia MP Robert Thibault allowed that “there are people who are of different views within our caucus.”
But Toronto MP John Godfrey contends that voters are smart enough to realize that they can no longer have their cake and eat it too. And he believes they'll ultimately reward the political leader who has the integrity and the guts to say so.
“You cannot have both a fight against climate change and cheap gas. This is not possible. You have to pick one,” Mr. Godfrey said.
“Leadership is always politically risky. That's the point of it.”
Mr. Dion has been encouraged by B.C.'s example – and the fact that there's been no backlash to it.
Starting on July 1, B.C. will phase in a carbon tax on all fossil fuels. It's expected to generate $1.8-billion in revenue over three years, but that money will be returned to consumers in the form of income and business tax cuts.
Mr. Dion is planning to make his carbon-tax proposal similarly revenue neutral. Insiders say he's proposing to offset the tax with income tax cuts of about $10-billion, plus programs aimed particularly at cushioning the blow for lower-income and rural Canadians who'd be hardest hit by increased fuel and electricity costs.
Talking points circulated to Liberal MPs stress that “a new Liberal government will not raise the tax on gas.”
On that front, some MPs fear they've already lost the spin war. In the absence of details from Mr. Dion, the Tories have been gleefully filling the void with apocalyptic warnings that the Liberal Leader intends to hike gas taxes by as much as 50 cents a litre.
Mr. Thibault says in his riding some people already can't afford to fill up their cars or home fuel tanks. Hence, it's crucial that the plan include measures to “assist people through this difficult time” and that Liberals develop a communications strategy to sell the plan to voters.
“It's complicated,” Mr. Thibault said. “We have to have good, earnest, solid debate on any bold, new such initiatives, make sure we have confidence that what we're doing will have the desired effect and then communicate it properly.”
