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WASHINGTON — The big news on Tuesday was not Hillary Clinton's win in the West Virginia primary. It was Travis Childers's win in the Mississippi First.
The First Congressional District of Mississippi is, or was, a rock-ribbed Republican bastion; its incumbent representative had taken the district in the past seven elections. George W. Bush garnered 62 per cent of the vote there in 2004.
So when the First came open for a special election (the American equivalent of a by-election), it should have been a snore. Instead, the Republican candidate Greg Davis, a local mayor, found himself in a political knife fight with Democrat Travis Childers, a local businessman.
On Tuesday, Mr. Childers took the district, 54 per cent to 46 per cent, leaving Republicans stunned.
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"Voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general," wrote Tom Cole, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, in a surprisingly blunt postmortem of the loss.
"I encourage all Republican candidates, whether incumbents or challengers, to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall."
The Republicans are waking up to the reality that there are now few safe seats in the House of Representatives.
A Congress noted for massive electoral inertia, with gerrymandered district boundaries that heavily favour incumbents, is in flux. Rather than recapturing the 30 seats in the House they lost in the 2006 midterm elections, the Republicans instead face further erosion, or even collapse.
Newt Gingrich led a Republican rebellion against Bill Clinton's administration in the 1990s.
"No Republicans should kid themselves," he wrote his fellow Republicans earlier this month. "It's time to face up to a stark choice."
"Without change, we could face a catastrophic election this fall. Without change, the Republican Party in the House could revert to the permanent minority status it had from 1930 to 1994."
The worst news for the Republicans about the Mississippi First is that it was not a fluke. One Illinois district that had been a Republican stronghold went to a Democrat when then former House Speaker Dennis Hastert stepped down. A Democrat shocked Republicans by taking the seat in a special election in March.
Then they took the Louisiana Sixth district, which Republicans had held since 1975. So when word came through that the Republicans were in trouble in the Mississippi First, yet another Deep South seat that should have been safe, the GOP pulled out all the stops.
Prominent Republicans, from Mike Huckabee to Dick Cheney (apparently, they thought it would help) visited the district.
The NRCC, despite being strapped for cash, pumped in $1.1-million, mostly for television advertising.
Some of that advertising served as a test run for the upcoming Republican campaign. The attack ads linked Mr. Childers, a conservative Democrat who loves guns and hates abortion, with Mr. Obama and, of all things, Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
"When Obama's pastor cursed America, blaming us for 9/11, Childers said nothing," the announcer intoned, "When Obama ridiculed rural folks for clinging to guns and religion, Childers said nothing."
"Travis Childers: He took Obama's endorsement over our conservative values. Conservatives just can't trust Travis Childers."
It didn't work, which suggests that linking local candidates to the apparent presidential nominee might not hurt Democratic hopefuls in the South.
"The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti-Reverend Wright, or [if Senator Hillary Clinton wins] anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail," Mr. Gingrich wrote in his message earlier this month.
"This model has already been tested with disastrous results."
The Republican leadership is not ignorant of the electorate's thirst for change. Yesterday, the party's House leadership rolled out the first instalment of a new party platform, "to show the American people," in the words of House Minority Leader John Boehner, "that we're serious about fixing the problems here in Washington."
The name of the new platform is: "The change you deserve." The blogosphere caught it first. "The change you deserve" is also the trademarked slogan of the drug Effexor. It's an antidepressant.
