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WASHINGTON — Last night, Barack Obama got thumped in Kentucky, and promptly declared victory.
Not complete, final victory, but a victory that his campaign has consistently said should and would determine the winner of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Despite losing Kentucky to challenger Hillary Clinton by worse than 2-to-1 (with 97 per cent of polls reporting, she had 65 per cent to his 30 per cent), and without knowing the outcome of the Oregon primary, which was also held yesterday, the Obama campaign calculated that it had finally obtained an absolute majority of pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention, excluding the delegates in disqualified Florida and Michigan.
To celebrate, Mr. Obama took his campaign to Des Moines, Iowa, scene of his initial triumph in the first cold days of January.
"Tonight, Iowa, in the fullness of spring, with the help of those who stood up from Portland to Louisville, we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people," he told a throng of supporters. "And you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for President of the United States."
There are 3,253 pledged delegates - those who are chosen through state primaries and caucuses - and, though final numbers had yet to be tallied, Mr. Obama had certainly passed the 1,627 needed for a majority.
The race is still sufficiently tight that a majority of pledged delegates alone is not sufficient to secure the 2,026 votes needed to take the first ballot at the convention.
But Mr. Obama could be within 70 votes or less of victory, with about 210 superdelegates yet to commit, and with those who have recently committed doing so almost exclusively in his favour, giving him a current lead among the supers of almost 30.
So the race is, for all intents and purposes, over, unless you believe that the proper criterion for choosing the nominee is which candidate can win the most large states that end in vowels. (She took California, Pennsylvania and Ohio to his Georgia and North Carolina.) Nonetheless, Ms. Clinton vowed last night to "see that every vote is cast and every ballot counted."
She told cheering supporters at a rally in Kentucky that "some have said your votes didn't matter, that this campaign is over."
But "you've never given up on me because you know I'll never give up on you."
Not that she needs them, but Ms. Clinton faces several fresh problems in the wake of last night's results. The April fundraising numbers are due out, and Mr. Obama's camp says it now has 1.45 million donors, including 200,000 new donors who signed up in April.
Even more worrisome, the last three primaries are two weeks away. Two are among the smallest in the union (South Dakota and Montana) and one isn't even a state (Puerto Rico). Interest in the primaries is essentially over, and without primary wins, what is Ms. Clinton going to say or do to get news coverage?
Already, there are stories of major fundraisers in the Obama and Clinton camps quietly talking about uniting the two machines to take on John McCain's Republicans.
Many of Ms. Clinton's supporters are deeply bitter over the dismissive quality of the media's approach to the Clinton campaign in recent days. One political action group, WomenCount, took out a full-page ad in The New York Times yesterday, with the headline: "Not So Fast ... Hillary's voice is our voice, and she's speaking for all of us."
And in Kentucky, a narrative that has held true of recent contests in Appalachia and the Midwest continued, with two-thirds of white women and almost as many men supporting her campaign, according to exit polls.
But if the Illinois senator is challenged in his efforts to attract these blue-collar voters in poor or rustbelt states, he continues to thrive in those parts of the country marked by economic growth and prosperous cities. Although results were not expected out of the West Coast state of Oregon until after press time, polls and party officials in both camps predicted that the state would go solidly in Mr. Obama's favour.
This week's conventional wisdom is that Ms. Clinton will wait until the final primaries on June 3, and then acknowledge the verdict of the people and her party, and withdraw.
Her only hope of preventing that outcome is to defy predictions and somehow persuade the party's rules and bylaws committee to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations when it meets May 31. More likely, the committee and the Obama camp are expected to agree to some formula that seats the delegations, but with a penalty for misbehaviour, and with Mr. Obama's lead not seriously compromised.
Alternatively, Mr. Obama could simply ask the party to seat both delegations without penalty, once he is the presumed nominee.
Regardless, the decisions are his to make, not hers. Despite another good primary night, Hillary Clinton is left with nothing to do but carry on and wait for the end.
Super-convincing
If the vote results in the remaining primaries don't change dramatically, the lopsided competition for support from the superdelegates makes it extremely difficult for Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
98%
Number of the remaining undeclared superdelegates Hillary Clinton would have to convince to support her.
3%
Number Barack Obama would have to convince.
Source: New York Times News Service
