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OTTAWA — The world's recession fears and thirst for energy will move Europeans and others closer to Canada's position on climate change, Prime Minister Stephen Harper predicts.
Climate change is supposed to be central to the agenda of G8 leaders when they meet in Japan next week, but divisions between Europeans and North Americans on what the next greenhouse-gas treaty should look like threatens to stymie progress. Economic concerns, especially those linked to rising fuel and food prices at a time when the global economy is slowing, may dominate G8 talks.
Mr. Harper has portrayed Canada as occupying a middle ground between the United States and Europe on climate change. His critics, however, argue that he has allied Canada with the U.S. in insisting that any successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol on reducing greenhouse-gas emissions must bind major developing countries like China and India to restrictive targets, while Europeans have pushed for developed countries to set the example.
After meeting with French Prime Minister François Fillon yesterday, Mr. Harper said he sees signs the U.S. and European positions are starting to move closer together – and that recession fears and energy-supply concerns should inject a dose of realism at the G8.
“In the past, we've talked about the economy in one discussion and energy security in another and climate change in another. And I think with the economic slowdown, there will be a greater realization among leaders that you cannot separate these things,” he said.
“That you have to have a realistic plan in the long term that doesn't just promise to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, but does so in a way that's economically viable, and that takes into account the need of our economies for energy security.”
He said that “it's been all climate change up till now” and that he's not arguing the economy and energy should wipe that off the agenda, but they need to be combined.
In Canada, much of that conflict centres on the development of Alberta's oil sands, a key driver of economic growth but also a large and rapidly increasing source of greenhouse-gas emissions.
At home, Mr. Harper's government has been criticized for not doing enough to set hard limits on emissions and shorter-term targets. Around the world, especially in Europe, Mr. Harper has been scolded for siding with the U.S. in setting tough conditions on the inclusion of developing countries in a new greenhouse-gas treaty.
“Perhaps now others will understand our point better, because we've taken difficult decisions about our oil sands and the growth of our economy in reducing greenhouse gases,” he said yesterday.
Although there has been little public sign of a major shift in the European position, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, under pressure from heavy industry in her country, has in recent months demanded concessions in the European plan and spoken of the need to include China and India in any new global treaty.
There is little public sign, however, that European countries have significantly moved their positions on a new climate-change treaty.
Mr. Harper noted that the U.S. is expected to shift soon – because both presidential contenders, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, have indicated they want stronger action on global climate change.
“I think if you don't see a change on that this year, you're certainly going to see a change on that front next year,” Mr. Harper said. “At the same time, I think there's a greater understanding that we really do have to have everybody in if we're really going to make long-term progress.”
