BEIJING — Alex Baumann marvels at the numbers — his and those belonging to the man who has blasted him out of the water and the record books.
In 1984, Mr. Baumann was Canada's golden boy in swim trunks. He won the 200-metre and 400-metre individual medley at the Los Angeles Summer Olympics and set a pair of world records.
Here in China, Michael Phelps is expected to win both the 200 and 400 IM — win a lot, for that matter — and lower his world record in both events. Those times, as they currently sit, make Mr. Baumann's efforts look as if he were dog paddling in porridge.
In the 200 IM, Mr. Phelps is almost seven seconds faster than Mr. Baumann. In the 400, Mr. Phelps has lowered Mr. Baumann's time by a stunning 12.6 seconds.
"My times wouldn't get me into the finals today," said an impressed Mr. Baumann. "That's the evolution of sports."
As sure as the Great Wall snakes high above Beijing's Olympic venues, there will be athletes who push the evolution of sports to new highs, new places. But how many world records will be set and in what disciplines?
The consensus brewing among current athletes, former athletes, coaches and media is we're not in for a wild record-setting ride. The weather conditions are too hot, too humid, too suffocating. Drug testing has gotten better. The pressure to win has become even more immense. So have the distractions, the buzz around the show.
That doesn't mean we won't be treated to record performances. Swimming will provide a bucket full of marks thanks to new technology (Speedo's LZR Racer swimsuit) and a National Aquatics Center that is reputed to be one of the best ever constructed (it's an indoor facility that eliminates environmental factors and houses a deep-water pool to reduce the turbulence created by swimmers).
On the track at the architecturally unique Bird's Nest, records are expected to fall in the shorter running events. Cuba's Dayron Robles could lower his count of 12.87 seconds in the 110-metre hurdles, especially since he'll be up against Chinese hero and defending Olympic champion Liu Xiang.
Most definitely, the final of the men's 100 metres is being targeted as a prime showcase for athletic evolution. The two men who have swapped the world record back and forth in recent months (taking it down to 9.72 seconds) signal a changing of the swift. They are both Jamaican and tall — Asafa Powell is 6 foot 3 and Usain (Lightning) Bolt stands 6 foot 5. Their chief rival, Tyson Gay of the United States, is 6 foot 1 and has experienced hamstring troubles of late.
"Somewhere there's a picture floating around of myself with Usain and Asafa, taken in Jamaica," said Canadian Donovan Bailey, the shrimp in the photograph at 6 foot 1 whose Olympic record of 9.84 seconds is destined to disappear. "We've broke the stereotypes that to be fast you had to be American and had to be short and powerful."
The majority of sprinters through the 1980s and 1990s had been shorter and thickly muscled. Think of Ben Johnson, honed to granite, chemically fuelled, exploding out of the blocks like a man with his shorts on fire.
Mr. Johnson believed his over-developed legs and choppy stride were critical to his starts thereby giving him an early, decisive lead. His success created a parade of sprinters who could have posed on the cover of Flex magazine. But Mr. Powell and Mr. Bolt, with their long limbs and ground-eating stride, have shown you can run fast even if your starts are not so fiery.
"Uncoiling long legs was a so-called issue for Carl [Lewis] and for me and for Linford Christie," Mr. Bailey said. "Yet we all won the Olympics."
Former U.S. sprinter Michael Johnson holds the world records in the 200-metre and 400-metre events. His times of 19.32 seconds (1996 Olympics) and 43.18 (1999 worlds) will be pushed here but are not likely to be erased.
Ironically, one of the challengers to Mr. Johnson's 400 record is lanky American Jeremy Wariner, who has been advised and occasionally coached by Mr. Johnson. Mr. Wariner is a relentless sprinter and aided by a burgeoning trend — high-tech gear.
Even in a sport as simple as running, athletes are looking for an advantage and getting it. Mr. Wariner's shoes are proof.
Adidas recently unleashed what it calls "the most revolutionary and technologically advanced track spike ever created." It's known as the Lone Star shoe, in honour of Mr. Wariner's Texas roots.
Two years in the making, the Lone Star has asymmetrical spikes designed for taking left turns on the track. Supposedly, the shoe works the same way the suspension system does in a race car, meaning Mr. Wariner will get the best grip possible from his footwear. It could be enough to carry him to the gold medal and beyond.
As a quick aside, even marathoners are cutting in on the cutting edge. Former marathoner Hitoshi Mimura has come up with a shoe for Asics that features "wet grip soles" imbedded with rice husks. The thinking is the husks will provide a 10-per-cent improvement in traction "by absorbing rain, humidity and misting water stations that could create slick roads on Beijing's marathon course."
The new advanced Asics shoe comes with an altered ventilation design and is sand- and dust-resistant to reduce foot irritation.
The one irritation that can't be reduced by shoes or fashion designers is the International Olympic Committee's bid to flush out as many drug cheats as it can. With the World Anti-Doping Agency on the prowl, dozens of athletes are being caught while many have cleaned up their act for fear of being caught through random testing.
The proof of that can be measured by the numbers. Several records still stand that were set decades ago, before WADA was established in 2001. The notoriously injected East German women of the past still hold the best showings in the high jump, long jump, shot put, discus and heptathlon. Consider that the women's discus record was set in 1988 at 76.80 metres. The best toss at the 2007 world championships was 10 metres shorter at 66.61.
Some, such as Peter Bruker, a doctor with the Australian athletics team, believe world records should be re-arranged, with pre-WADA records bearing an asterisk and post-WADA records taking their place. That won't happen any time soon but with fewer records being set over the past 20 years, it's reasonable to suggest we won't see a slew suddenly wrung up in China.
Ah, but in the pool, it will be a different story. Records will fall, especially when Mr. Phelps hits the water. He has held, or holds, 24 world records. He has broken his mark in the 200 butterfly five times — and, yes, he'll be wearing his LZR Racer from start to finish.
The suit, which took three years to construct, reduces drag, boasts a core stabilizer that holds in muscles like a corset and, over all, is better for sliding through the water than your body's skin. It was assembled by a team of researchers and designers from NASA, the Australian Institute of Sport, fashion designer Comme des Garçons and engineering software specialists with ANSYS Canada Ltd., based out of Waterloo, Ont.
At last count, the LZR Racer had improved times by at least 2 per cent and had produced more than 45 world records. That it fails to produce more at the world's most prestigious swim meet is as unlikely as the IOC adding a belly-flop competition for the 2012 Olympics.
"I tried the suit and I loved it," said Canadian swimmer Tanya Hunks who is hardly alone in that regard.
There's one last thing to consider when it comes to world records and the Olympics: they don't always go together, foot in shoe. Winning is important, not winning by how much. Athletes aren't thinking of what numbers to put on the Omega timepieces; they're thinking about the colour of the medal they want.
"The fact is you're not going to see a lot of world records at the Olympics because there is so much to deal with," Mr. Bailey said. "The fact I could run a 9.84 under the conditions and the pressure, that is what made the win amazing more than the time."
Something to marvel at.
With a report from James Christie
