Here's Allan Robinson's At The Bell which you'll find in Thursday's newspaper:

Investors will likely be asking themselves “Just where is the recession?” when the
second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data are released today.

WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS?

The preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to have increased by 2.7 per cent during the second quarter, compared with the advanced estimate of 1.9 per cent, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg.

Just wait, said Mark Zandi, the chief economist with Economy.com Inc. “The recession is among consumers and the consumer is cutting back,” he said. “In the third quarter we are on track for a sizable drop in spending.” He expects negative GDP growth in the third quarter. The strength in the U.S. export markets and the second-quarter tax rebates allowed the economy to avoid the downturn, Mr. Zandi said. “I'm nervous that the very weak European and weakening Japanese economies will take a notch out of our exports, which have kept the economy out of a recession.”

Trade has been a tremendous boon to the U.S. economy. Export growth is forecast to be up 15.2 per cent during the second quarter, compared with the earlier estimate of 9.2 per cent as imports decline, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc.

Those looking for an eventual full recovery will need to be patient. The next six months could be difficult, Mr. Zandi said. “I think it will not be until the beginning of the next decade or 2010 before the economy finds its footing.”

HOW WILL THE MARKET REACT?

Although the U.S. Federal Reserve Board indicates it wants to raise the federal funds rate as a result of inflation, the credit crunch and housing debacle likely preclude that option.

“I don't think the bond market is going anywhere quickly,” Mr. Zandi said. “The Fed is likely to remain on hold for the balance of the year.”

The yield on U.S. Treasuries remain depressed as investors look for safety. Two-year U.S. Treasuries yield 2.27 per cent and the 10-years yield 3.76 per cent, down 5 basis points and 2 points, respectively, yesterday. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)

And the bond markets were calm this week despite the sale of $32-billion (U.S.) in two-year notes yesterday and today's scheduled sale of $22-billion in five-year notes, according to Bloomberg. Investors continue to look for slower growth ahead and the prospects that inflation pressures are easing.