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OTTAWA — Voters in pivotal regional battlegrounds across Canada have shifted their support toward the Harper Tories as federal leaders kick off their first full day of campaigning, according to a new poll.
The survey of 45 hotly contested constituencies in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia finds that the Conservative Party has made significant gains over its performance of 2006, while its main opponents in all three regions have lost ground. The survey for The Globe and Mail-CTV News shows the Tories in first place in the key swing constituencies, as polls across the country put them in sight of a majority.
“The bottom line is that the Conservatives are in significantly better shape in these battlegrounds in the three provinces than they were in the election,” said Peter Donolo, a partner with polling company the Strategic Counsel.
“People who reside in these ridings think the country is on the right track.”
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The ridings – 20 from Ontario, 15 from Quebec and 10 from British Columbia – represent the most closely fought constituencies in each province during the last election or in recent by-elections.
The results range from a gap of 28 votes in the Tory-held Ontario riding of Parry-Sound-Muskoka to a difference of 5,027 in Brome-Missisquoi, held by the Bloc-Québécois.
Of the 45 ridings sampled, 17 were won by the Liberals, 16 by the Tories, eight by the Bloc and four by the NDP. Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia were chosen because they possess the highest concentration of ridings where multiple parties are likely to have the toughest competition.
The results find that, in the 15 Quebec ridings, the Tories have jumped from 23 per cent support in 2006 to 32 per cent today, while the Bloc has dropped to 28 per cent from 37. The Liberals are down to 24 per cent from 28 per cent, while the NDP have inched up three points to 11.
Liberal problems could also benefit the Tories in Quebec should the federalist vote begin to coalesce with Mr. Harper, allowing his party to jump over the Bloc.
In Ontario, the poll of 20 ridings sees the Tories jumping four percentage points from the federal vote to 41 per cent, the Liberals dropping 10 points to 29 and the NDP dropping six points. The number of those who say they intend to vote Green has surged to 17 per cent.
The B.C. situation looks similarly difficult for the opposition, with the Liberals and the NDP dropping eight and 10 points respectively, while the Tories are up 10 to 45. The Greens are also doing better in B.C., rising to 13 per cent from five in 2006.
Winning those ridings is hugely important in the current minority environment. If, for example, the Tories can win, on aggregate, 28 more ridings, they will have achieved their much-sought-after majority government.
“This says that seats are moving in all the places that count,” said Greg Lyle, of the polling firm Innovative Research Group Inc. “The Tories are starting this in very good shape.”
Mr. Donolo warned, however, that there are a significant number of voters surveyed who say they are likely to switch their votes.
In Ontario, 40 per cent said they might be likely to switch their intentions, compared to 31 per cent in B.C. and 29 per cent in Quebec.
“They're leaning one way now, and I think significantly, but this is not a done deal.”
Pollsters surveyed 450 individuals in each of B.C. and Quebec with a margin of error of 4.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20, and 480 voters in Ontario (margin of error 4.5 per cent). The survey, which totalled 1,380 voters, was conducted Sept. 4-6.
According to the poll, voters in all three regions still have some reservations about giving Mr. Harper a majority. In Quebec, 48 per cent say the Conservative Leader is too right-wing and controlling, and has too much of a hidden agenda, while 42 per cent say he is competent, decisive and can be trusted.
In Ontario, voters split on the issue 45-45. The Conservative Leader did best in B.C., where 50 per cent declared that Mr. Harper is trustworthy and 42 per cent believe he has a hidden agenda.
Voters also appeared bullish on the direction of the country. When asked whether Canada is on the right path, voters in all three provinces answered more positively than the national average, which was measured at 49 per cent at the end of August.
Impressions of the leaders in the three riding clusters appear most negative for Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion. Mr. Harper, NDP Leader Jack Layton and the Bloc's Gilles Duceppe all hover in the high 50s to the high 60s, well above Mr. Dion, whose approval ratings are in the mid- to high-30s.
“Harper's leadership numbers are a significant asset for him,” Mr. Donolo said.
When it comes to gender support, Mr. Harper's party is supported by 44 per cent of men and 34 per cent of women in all the ridings combined, compared to the Liberals, who are backed by 25 per cent of men and 29 per cent of women.
