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OTTAWA — Support for the Conservatives in key Quebec battleground ridings is taking a hit, as virtually all other parties focus their attacks on the Tories in that province, a new poll shows.
“[The Conservatives] are just getting pummelled from all sides,” said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel, which conducted the poll. “The air wars are killing them.”
Unlike in the rest of the country, a particularly fierce battle has been brewing on Quebec's airwaves, with opposition parties launching myriad TV ads. The NDP, for example, has run ads comparing Conservative Leader Stephen Harper to U.S. President George W. Bush, and saying a Conservative government would be a slave to the Alberta oil patch. While the ads are rarely seen outside Quebec, they are frequently aired in the province, where at least four parties have a serious shot at winning closely contested ridings.
At the start of the election campaign, the Tories registered 32-per-cent support in Quebec battleground ridings, the poll shows, with the Liberals at 24 per cent, the NDP at 11 per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 28 per cent. Today, the Conservatives are at 26 per cent, just three points ahead of the Liberals, whose support in the province has remained fairly level. Both the NDP and the Bloc have gained support at the Conservatives' expense, jumping to 13 and 31 per cent respectively.
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper delivers a speech to supporters during a rally on Wednesday in Saguenay, Que. (Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press)
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There is more bad news for the Conservatives in Ontario, where, for the first time in this election campaign, the poll shows the Liberals have pulled even with the Tories in the province's battleground ridings.
At the start of the election campaign, the Conservatives had more than a 10-point lead on the Liberals in those ridings, registering 41-per-cent support to the Liberals' 29 per cent. Today, both parties sit at 35 per cent, below their 2006 numbers. The NDP registers 18-per-cent support. The only party that has made a significant gain in those ridings compared to 2006 is the Green Party, which has doubled its numbers to 11 per cent.
The poll, conducted Sept. 14 to 16 for CTV and The Globe and Mail, tracks 45 of the closest ridings in B.C., Ontario and Quebec. All the ridings saw especially tight races either in the 2006 election or recent by-elections.
Of the 45 ridings, 20 are in Ontario, 15 are in Quebec and 10 are in B.C. The Liberals won 17 of them, the Conservatives 16, the Bloc eight and the NDP four. Surveys are conducted daily, with three-day running tallies comprising a poll of 1,325 Canadians.
Part of the reason for the Tories' disappearing lead in Ontario battleground ridings likely has to do with concerns over the state of the economy, which is of far more concern than the environment among voters there.
In Ontario battlegrounds, the economy is far and away the more important of the two issues, with some 62 per cent of respondents saying it is the top issue, compared to just 29 per cent picking the environment. The discrepancy is similar in B.C., where 58 per cent pick the economy, compared to 31 per cent for the environment. That gap is likely bad news for Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion, who has made the environment the cornerstone of his campaign so far.
“To me, that suggests that Dion really needs to change the channel,” Mr. Donolo said.
In Quebec, however, Mr. Dion's current message may resonate louder. The economy barely edges the environment in that province's battleground ridings, 41 per cent to 40 per cent.
The poll also shows that very few Canadians believe the nation's economy is getting stronger. Not only do voters in battleground ridings feel that way (only 8 per cent in Quebec feel the economy is getting stronger, 11 per cent in Ontario and 9 per cent in B.C.), but voters across Canada. Nationwide, only 13 per cent of Canadians believe the economy is heading in the right direction.
The brightest spot for the Conservatives in the battleground ridings is in B.C. Support for the Tories is at 43 per cent there, compared to 25 per cent for the Liberals. This is especially good news for the Conservatives because six of the 10 battleground ridings in B.C. are held by the Liberals. Support for the NDP, which just a week ago was at a high of 30 per cent, has dropped back to 17 per cent, the same level of support the party had at the beginning of the election campaign.
