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OTTAWA — The Conservatives and the Liberals are evenly splitting the federalist vote in key battleground ridings in Quebec, allowing the Bloc Québécois to keep a slight lead in the province, according to a new poll by The Strategic Counsel.
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has been making steady appeals to Quebec nationalists during the campaign, making stops in areas under Bloc control and once praising the patriotes who fought against British forces in 1837.
But The Globe and Mail/CTV News poll shows that the federalist vote continues to be divided in Quebec, which could allow the Bloc to squeak through in closely fought areas of the province. The Bloc is hoping to hang on to as many of its 48 ridings as possible on Oct. 14, even though its overall support has dropped since the last election in 2006.
In the 15 battleground ridings that are the subject of daily polling by the Strategic Counsel, the federalist vote is evenly split between the Conservatives and the Liberals, which each capture 34 per cent of the people who say they would vote no in any future sovereignty referendum.
Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe speaks to people at the Chateau Frontenac in Quebec City on Tuesday. (Yan Doublet/Canadian Press)
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The Bloc, on the other hand, clinches 70 per cent of respondents who would vote Yes to Quebec secession. By comparison, the Conservatives have the support of only 10 per cent of Quebec sovereigntists in the battleground ridings.
The NDP is the only party that appeals almost evenly to those in the Yes camp (14 per cent) and the No camp (16 per cent).
The numbers are crucial because polls put support in the province for sovereignty at around 40 per cent, with support for federalism at 60 per cent. Overall, the Bloc obtained the support of 31 per cent of respondents in the battleground ridings, compared with 24 per cent for both the Conservative and the Liberal parties, and 16 per cent for the NDP.
Pollster Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel said the Conservative support is slowly eroding in Quebec because of controversial cuts to cultural programs.
“[Mr. Harper has] got to get some of that mojo back in Quebec,” Mr. Donolo said.
The Strategic Counsel is doing daily polling in 45 ridings in Ontario, Quebec and B.C. that were closely fought in the 2006 election or recent by-elections.
The Conservatives continue to lead in B.C., and have rebounded in first place after a slight Liberal upswing last week.
While the Liberals under Stéphane Dion have not made major breakthroughs in the campaign, their plan to spend $70-billion on infrastructure over 10 years could be popular. The poll found overwhelming support for “major new investments in public transit:” 79 per cent in the Ontario battleground ridings, 82 per cent in B.C. and 88 per cent in Quebec.
There was also majority support in the three provinces for a national infrastructure program.
Week 3 of the campaign
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