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Let's see; that was 37 days in a row in which Mats Sundin said he wanted to stay and play for the Toronto Maple Leafs … but I wonder if he really means it.

I hope somebody asks him again today — just to be sure.

THE CURSE OF NINTH PLACE: On Thursday night, for the umpteenth time since Cliff Fletcher pilfered him out of the Quebec Nordiques organization, Sundin did what he's paid to do — he helped his team earn a point in the standings (this time, by scoring a goal, off his skate, in the dying seconds of a game against the Carolina Hurricances). The Hurricanes went on to win in overtime, but Toronto earned a point anyway, moving them into a 13th-place tie with the slumping Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference standings.

But the good news was that both of the conference bottom-dwellers, the Los Angeles Kings and the Tampa Bay Lightning won their games, making the thrilling race at the bottom of the NHL standings even tighter. As of Friday morning, the surging Kings — once almost guaranteed to earn the best odds of winning the draft lottery — had closed to within two points of Tampa. The Leafs were only four points out of last overall, which made you wonder — would that bonus point, earned against the Hurricanes, negatively affect their chances for a high draft choice, what with the races as close among the cellar-dwellers as it is for an actual playoff spot.

The one thing that Leaf Nation has learned to their chagrin over the past two years is the curse of the ninth-place finish — that capacity to fall just short of the playoffs, thus missing out on a chance for a first-round, but not cashing in on a blue-chip prospect at the draft table.

How important is that ability to draft first overall, but especially in the top three? Significant, if you base it on this year's scoring race. As of Friday, five of the NHL's top-10 scorers were players chosen first overall in their respective entry drafts (that'd be Alex Ovechkin, Vincent Lecavalier, Ilya Kovalchuk, Sidney Crosby and Joe Thornton) — and a sixth, Jason Spezza went second overall behind Kovalchuk.

If you expand it to the top 20, you'd also find another No. 1 overall — Sundin himself — plus two more No. 2s (Evgeni Malkin and Dany Heatley) and two No. 3s (Marian Gaborik and Henrik Sedin). There are some lower first-rounders sprinkled in the mix (Jarome Iginla, Ryan Getzlaf, Mike Richards); some good/lucky picks mid-to-late round picks (Daniel Alfredsson, Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg); and even one player, Martin St. Louis, who wasn't drafted at all. But the evidence is compelling and mostly self-evident — teams with high picks in good entry drafts generally earn a dividend for their general and overwhelming incompetence in any given year.

And the opposite is also true: There tends to be a dramatic fall-off in the calibre of prospect that those close-but-no-cigar ninth-place finishers tend to select at the draft. An examination of 10 years of drafting in that slot yields some interesting data. Of the 20 draft slots available (10 per conference) to that teams that just fell one place short of the playoffs, six teams traded away their picks, including the 2007 Leafs who finished ninth in back-to-back years. Last year's pick went to the Sharks in the Vesa Toskala deal; in '06, the Leafs took Jiri Tlusty 13th overall in a year when Erik Johnson, Jordan Staal and Jonathan Toews went one-two-three.

It's too early to pass judgment on the results of the '06 and '07 drafts (and '05 was rejected, on the grounds that there were no ninth-place finishers in a season cancelled by the lockout). Of the players chosen by ninth-place finishers over the past 10 years dating back to '97, the best is either Ales Hemsky or Christopher Higgins — and the Edmonton Oilers were involved in both transactions. On the first, 'the 01 draft, the Oilers traded up six places (with the Boston Bruins) to grab Hemsky; the next year they traded down one place with the Montreal Canadiens, who took Higgins (Edmonton then opted for the immortal Jesse Nittymaki with its choice). For the Oilers it was one exceptionally smart move; followed by one complete gaffe; and the moral of the story seems to be pick as high as you can in any given draft, no matter how many extra later-round choices a team dangles in front of you.

More often than not, a player chosen at that stage in the entry draft either didn't pan out at all (Brad Ference, Jeff Heerema, Denis Shvidki, Alexei Smirnov, Vaclav Nedorost) or developed into a journeyman NHL player but not a star (Mark Bell, Oleg Saprykin, Nick Boynton, Steve Eminger). There are a couple of others where it's too soon to say (Lars Eller, Kevin Shattenkirk, Michael Grabner, Devan Dubnyk, Hugh Jessiman) and two more that could be pretty good (Brent Seabrook and Drew Stafford).

The point is that while drafting 18-year-olds remains an inexact science, the intuitive response here is also the correct one. Statistically, there is a far greater chance of putting that one significant first piece of the rebuilding puzzle in place with the top choice (or at least a pick in the top three) than if you try to make a playoff push and ultimately fall just one position short.

THE PETER FORSBERG WATCH: Is underway in earnest, now that he's told his agent, Don Baizley, he's prepared to listen to offers for his services from NHL teams. Forsberg would be a far riskier but less pricey option for anyone who'd hoped (hopes?) that Sundin will eventually relent and permit the Maple Leafs to ship him out of town.

No one can dispute what Forsberg, at his best, brings to the table — a complete package of high-end skills, plus grit, a will to win and previous playoff success. The Nashville Predators were so enticed by Forsberg's resume at last year's trade deadline that they coughed up a pretty impressive package of prospects and draft choices to rent him for a time. Forsberg played OK for the Preds, but he wasn't a difference maker (15 regular-season points in 17 games; four more in a five-game, first-round playoff exit to the San Jose Sharks).

It would have been one thing if Forsberg's presence had moved the Predators into the playoff picture from outside the top eight, but last year, they were challenging for the President's Trophy until a late fade saw them come up just three points short. They actually need Forsberg a lot more now than they did then (as of Friday morning, Nashville was in a pack of eight teams, separated by five points in the Western Conference standings and statistically clinging to the final spot, ahead of the Vancouver Canucks).

Forsberg always was loyal to a fault. He agreed to the trade to Nashville from the Philadelphia Flyers in the first place, partly because he didn't think he'd given the Flyers full value during his 1 ¾ years with the organization, a time largely punctuated by ongoing woes with his surgically repair ankle(s) and the inability to find a proper-fitting skate that offered him enough support.

So Nashville wouldn't be completely out of the question, nor is Colorado, where the Avalanche continues to defy all odds by staying in the playoff hunt, despite injuries to Joe Sakic, Ryan Smyth and Paul Stastny. The Detroit Red Wings, the Anaheim Ducks, the Canucks, the Dallas Stars and the Calgary Flames — in short, virtually every Western Conference contender - could all make strong cases on their own behalf as to why he'd be a good fit on their respective teams. But that wealth of competitive teams also illustrates the problem in signing with a Western Conference team — too many possible contenders to determine which one squad will advance to the Stanley Cup final.

Remember, it was only two years ago that every single first-round series in the West ended in an upset; when the smoke cleared, the No. 5 seeded Sharks had home-ice advantage from the second round on. Over in the East, it's a different story, which means his old team, the Flyers, who were busy bringing up the cellar at this time last season, suddenly loom as a dark-horse contender. The Flyers have been one of the most consistent teams in the league since Christmas; the return of Simon Gagne from a lengthy bout on the sidelines with a concussion makes them better still. And — in the dare to dream scenario — if Forsberg ever comes back and finds his rhythm and touch, they could complete one of the most impressive about-faces in recent NHL history.

No, Forsberg will have his choice of possible destinations, but if he really does believe there's unfinished business in Philadelphia, that wouldn't appeal to just the loyalist in him. It should appeal to the pragmatist as well.

THE CHEECHOO TRAIN: Weather was a primary topic of conversation when the San Jose Sharks made a whistle-stop swing through Alberta this past week, with the temperature dipping into the minus-40 range in Edmonton, before warming up to a balmy minus-27 by high noon Wednesday, when they hit Calgary. For reasons that greatly amused his teammates, the Sharks' Joe Thornton didn't bring an overcoat — just his suit coat, a toque and gloves. When I quizzed him about it, he said with a laugh: "Mind over matter, Eric, mind over matter."

Well, OK.

A couple of locker stalls down, Thornton's linemate Jonathan Cheechoo was being equally cavalier about the chill, which is more understandable, considering he was born in Moose Factory, Ont., where the cold can often be unremitting.

"It's probably a little colder than this back home," ventured Cheechoo. "It's fun to come to this kind of weather. You don't get it that often — well, you never get it in California."

Up until recently, ice cold could be used to describe Cheechoo's fortunes around the net as well. Only two years removed from winning the Rocket Richard trophy as the NHL's goal-scoring leader, he had just scored four times before Christmas. Recovering from off-season surgery to repair a sports hernia, Cheechoo was having all kinds of problems rediscovering his old form — in part because he just wasn't getting there on the ice. An awkward skater at the best of times, Cheechoo needed a full three months to get his stride back. Cheechoo managed just the one more goal in nine games after Christmas, but then, in the past seven games, has doubled his season output — from five to 10 — and looks to be back on track. With 30 games to go, he could salvage the season with a strong finish and good playoff.

"Ever since Christmas, I feel my game has been as good as it has been in the past," said Cheechoo. "It's something I want to keep building on. The chances are coming in bunches. I'm getting a lot of shots — and quality shots — every game, so that's something, I know the goals are going to come."

For someone with 121 goals on his scoring resume over the past three seasons, this start had to be frustrating.

"Well it's difficult obviously," he answered. "You never want to go through this. I put a lot of pressure on myself. I expect a lot more out of myself than I've gotten in the first 40 or 50 games. It's something where, you always want to get better. It is a little frustrating, but at the same time, I take a positive from it. I'm playing well away from the puck. I'm trying to keep my plus-minus in the pluses, and help the team out anyway I can."

AND FINALLY: Commissioner Gary Bettman celebrated 15 years on the job Friday, a time that saw the departure of two Canadian franchises (Quebec and Winnipeg), but also saw the commish take a leading role in helping two others (Ottawa and Edmonton) survive in their current markets. There were two lengthy lockouts; nine teams added through expansion; the introduction of shootouts; and three-point games which contributed to unprecedented competitive balance (or at least, close playoff races). Has his reign been good for the league or not? Discuss amongst yourselves … Pretty good move by the Predators to lock up the underappreciated J.P. Dumont for four years, at $4 million per season — a relatively modest sum for a player that has keyed their recent turnaround. Dumont is in the middle of his finest stretch as a pro and Friday was named runner-up to Ovechkin as player of the month, thanks to a career-high 16-game point-scoring streak. Dumont registered points in each of the team's 14 games during the month (6-14--20) as the Predators posted an 8-3-3 record. He figured in 20 of the Predators' 48 goals during the month and had multi-point games in six of the 14 contests. Ovechkin is primarily responsible for getting the Capitals back in the playoff race. He probably would have won the award anyway, even before he exploded for four goals in that overtime win over the Canadiens, which gave him a league-leading 43. With Kovalchuk out at least for this weekend's action because of that knee injury suffered in the collision with the Penguins' Jarkko Ruutu, Ovechkin looks as if he'll win the Rocket Richard trophy going away. After Ovechkin and Kovalchuk, the next closest contenders are Alfredsson (currently injured) and Iginla (held without a goal for his past eight games), both at 32. Once upon a time it looked as if eight or more players could top the 50-goal mark; now, largely because of injuries, it could mean only the top two actually crack that barrier. In January, Ovechkin took over the league lead in points (70) and goals (43); in his last 36 games, he has scored an astonishing 34 goals