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Part of Alex Gardiner's job in the runup to Beijing has been to painstakingly chart every Canadian athlete's progression, jotting down each and every performance and where it ranked them among the best in the world.

The Canadian Olympic Committee's senior director, in charge of Olympic programming-technical, says he has reason to be optimistic that Canada's podium performances at the Beijing Olympics will number somewhere in the teens, good enough for the COC to achieve its goal of a top-16 finish in China.

"I have to say I've been to a few of these [Games], but I'm more excited to see it start than ever because I think we're going to be so close to the line, competitive in every event that we have here," Gardiner said at the COC's opening news conference Thursday.

"Every veteran Olympian, everyone that's been on the radar from the world championships, top-eights, those are the people whose graphs are going this way," he added, steering his hand upwards.

With a day to go until the Games officially get underway with the opening ceremonies at the Bird's Nest stadium, the COC remained steadfast in its goal of a top-16 finish, despite the fact several key athletes have been sidelined by injuries, and Canada is fielding a young team in Beijing.

COC president Michael Chambers figures Canada's podium performances need to number in the teens to finish top-16. Hungary finished 16th at the 2004 Athens Olympics with 17 medals.

"It's going to be a tough objective to attain," Chambers said. "Every athlete in every event is in a tough competition."

Canada captured 12 medals four years ago in Athens — three gold, six silver, three bronze — to finish 19th, and after the dust of disappointment settled, the COC restructured its program to focus squarely on producing podium performances.

Canada has 332 athletes competing in Beijing, including 15 Olympic medallists. But 230 of the athletes are Olympic first-timers, which bodes well for the COC's goal of finishing top-12 four years from now at the Games in London, but raises questions about its lofty medal hopes in China.

Making the task even more difficult, some of Canada's top medal hopes have either been forced to pull out of Beijing or are battling back from injuries, including hurdler Perdita Felicien, who didn't recover from a stress fracture in her foot in time to compete, gymnastics gold medallist Kyle Shewfelt, who suffered two broken legs a year ago, and diver Alexandre Despatie, who broke a bone in his foot in April.

"Injuries are part of sport," Chambers said. "If you've got a team, you're going to have certain team members that are going to be injured. It hasn't impacted at all on our confidence in our ability to achieve our objective, when somebody's down, somebody else is up.

"When someone has got a handicap in the Games, then the rest of the team has to pull together and make up the difference."

The COC has undergone a major overhaul over the past several years with a single-minded focus of reaching the podium, channelling funding first into winter Olympic sports through its Own the Podium program, and then the Summer Games through the Road to Excellence.

The Road to Excellence has about $19 million a year to work with, and the federal government committed in this year's budget to kick in an additional $48 million. But that's for the run-up to the 2012 Games in London, where the COC aims to finish top-12 in the medal count.

Still, the expectations on Canada's athletes heading into any Olympic Games are high.

"We're all aware that most of our career will be judged on this event, you win a world championship four times, you can win 20 World Cups, if you win the Olympics, people will remember that," said Canada's chef de mission Sylvie Bernier, a gold medallist in diving at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics.

Chambers said there's the potential for medals in a broader range of sports "than we've ever had in many, many Games.

"Because we have a broader base from which those great success stories can come from, then we have so much more security in feeling confident — notwithstanding that we have hardships in individual circumstances — that our goal is very much achievable."

Chambers pointed to equestrian, fencing and a rebuilt Canadian swimming program as sports with a renewed hope of medals.

"If we have big success in taekwondo, it could turn into two medals, that could make the difference," Gardiner added. "If we have bigger success than we expect in diving, it could turn into two medals."

The women's soccer team captured Canada's first victory at these Games, beating Argentina 2-1 in its opening game and OIympic debut Wednesday night, a positive first step for the entire Canadian team, said Gardiner.

"That changes the mood of the team, you can feel it in the (Olympic) Village, people are saying, 'Yeah, we won, let's get going,"' Gardiner said.

Canada's top medal hopes rest on the shoulders of flag-bearer and kayaker Adam van Koeverden of Oakville, Ont., who won gold and bronze four years ago in Athens, and has been virtually unbeatable on the water this year. The Canadian team also has world champions in swimmer Brent Hayden of Mission, B.C., in the 100-metre freestyle, sprinter Tyler Christopher of Chilliwack, B.C., who captured gold in the world indoor 400 metres, Karine Sergerie of Ste-Catherine, Que., in taekwondo and the men's eight rowing crew.

There will also be five Canadian teams in Beijing — in women's soccer and softball, along with men's baseball, field hockey and water polo. Canada hasn't won a medal in a team sport since the men's basketball team captured silver in 1936.

But if there's one thing worth banking on in every Olympic Games, it's that a top athlete could falter, while an unheralded athlete might shine.

"Someone will exceed their grasp, someone will fall short," Gardiner said. "It's going to happen to the best and it's going to be the 'oh wow, what am I doing on the podium?' moments, and there's going to be the 'what happened, I should have been on the podium' moments. There'll all going to be there."