Eric Duhatschek on the NHL's new season

Globe and Mail Update

It's been almost four months since Henrik Zetterberg's goal put the exclamation mark on his wonderful playoff run and pretty much sealed the Detroit Red Wings' Game 6 win in Pittsburgh, giving Hockeytown its first Stanley Cup championship since 2002.





Since then, the Tampa Bay Lightning have undergone changes in ownership, coaching and on-ice personnel, Marian Hossa has taken his goal-scoring savvy from Pittsburgh to Detroit, the Montreal Canadiens and Patrick Roy have kissed and made up with the announcement that the Hall of Fame goalie will have his No. 33 retired in November, and Scott Bowman left the Red Wings to join his son Stanley with a rejuvenated Chicago Blackhawks franchise.





"Hope usually springs eternal at this time of the NHL season, as 30 teams prepare — with fingers crossed — for what they think will be a fabulous year. That, of course, was how it was in the old days — or before the NHL staggered the beginning of the season, with a soft opening in Europe last weekend featuring four games, followed by a second launch in North America, which begins Thursday on four fronts," wrote Eric Duhatschek, globesports.com's resident hockey columnist, in Wednesday's paper .   



To mark the start of the regular season on this side of the ocean, Duhatschek answered your questions on Thursday.





Eric Duhatschek was the winner of the Hockey Hall Of Fame's Elmer Ferguson award for "distinguished contributions to hockey writing" in 2001. A graduate of the University of Western Ontario's grad school of journalism, he began covering hockey in 1978 and after spending 20 years covering the NHL and the Calgary Flames, joined globeandmail.com in September, 2000, where he writes a five-time-a-week NHL column.





A frequent contributor to Hockey Night in Canada's Satellite Hot Stove segment, he has covered four Winter Olympics, 19 Stanley Cup finals, every Canada Cup and World Cup since 1981, plus two world championships. Most recently, he was appointed as the newest member of the Hockey Hall Of Fame's annual Selection Committee.





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Steve McAllister, Editor, globesports.com: Eric, thanks very much for taking time away from preparing your weekly notebook and the return of the Globe Sports hockey page this Saturday to chat with us. While many of us watched the games in Stockholm and Prague last weekend, there seems to be more excitement surrounding the start of the season tonight. And, as so often is the case in today's professional sport environment, you pretty much need a program to keep track of the off-ice action especially in the salary-cap worlds. With that in mind, can you bring us up to speed on the latest roster tweaking by the team in your backyard - the Calgary Flames?

Eric Duhatschek writes: For anyone accustomed to evaluating player movement on merit, the events of the last 24 hours — on a couple of different fronts — must have them shaking their heads. The case you refer to concerns the Flames and Dustin Boyd, the second-year forward who tied with David Moss for the team lead in exhibition scoring and looked as if he'd developed some chemistry with Moss and Curtis Glencross. The Flames demoted Boyd to the minors Wednesday anyway, strictly as a salary-cap move — or until they could get the NHL to examine the medical evidence and approve their decision to put defenceman Rhett Warrener on long-time injury reserve. Once the league did that — effectively making Warrener's $2.35-million (all currency U.S.) salary-cap hit disappear — then they recalled Boyd. The whole thing took about 19 hours. He'll join the team in Vancouver today in time for their season opener against the Canucks.

NHL rules obliged the Flames to physically ship Boyd out — to Moline, Illinois, home of their Quad Cities AHL franchise — as opposed to just doing a paper transaction, before they could bring him back. (Note to self: Whatever happened to the NHL's much ballyhooed Green initiative, which, among things, means no more paper media directories)?

A similar scenario unfolded in Dallas, where the Stars sent James Neal and Mark Fistric to their the Oklahoma City affiliate, until such time as it took the league to approve Sergei Zubov's transfer to the LTI list. Once that occurred, Neal and Fistric returned to Dallas. Both Warrener and Zubov will be out a minimum of 10 games and 24 calendar which means the soonest they could return to action is sometime in early November.

In Calgary's case, the moves place the Flames just under the $56.7-million salary cap but the actual dollars that they're paying players are well above that. They owe Warrener his salary, Anders Eriksson his (he's in Quad Cities), and they're also paying Marcus Nilson $1-million to play in Russia. Counting the front-loaded contracts for Miikka Kiprusoff and Dion Phaneuf ($15.5-million actual dollars in their pockets, but a cap hit of only $12.33-million), their actual payroll is over $60-million. Remind me again why they had the lockout in the first place?

Sometimes, all these convoluted maneuvers make you long for the days when sports writers simply needed to worry about was how to riff off 'he shoots, he scores!'

Scot Loucks from Pickering, Canada writes: Hi Eric; Everyone seems to be jumping on the Habs bandwagon this year.... and I do like their team... but...Why isn't anybody talking about Boston? They played Montreal tough in the playoffs last year... and they have added (back from injury) Bergeron and Fernandez. Plus I like a (I'm sure) motivated Ryder. Then they talk about Pittsburgh (who are currently minus both Gonchar and Whitney). Isn't Philladelphia .... with the return of Gagne the much improved team? Your thoughts? Cheers

Duhatschek: Hi Scott, thanks for your question. I learned a great lesson about 20 years ago in an exercise that we had to do for The Hockey News. As part of their annual preview, they asked their correspondents to paint a best-case and worst-case scenario for the teams they covered — and then ran both stories side by side. It really made you because — within a few basic parameters — you can make a good case either way. So much depends upon injury, the maturation of young players, the chemistry that evolves among the 23 players on the roster. And I did mention, in Wednesday's 15 Questions preview piece, that I thought the Bruins could contend for the title in the Northeast, second toughest division in the NHL after the Pacific, if Patrice Bergeron and Zdeno Chara stay healthy; and if their goaltending holds up. Pittsburgh is good enough to compete even without Gonchar and Whitney. Although they probably won't run away with the division, as Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski learn on the job, if these injuries fast track their development and then Whitney and Gonchar are both hitting their strides come playoff time, then they could be the class of the conference. As for Philadelphia, I like the Flyers overall depth up front, but and if Simon Gagne stays healthy, he'll help Daniel Briere have a much better season. Like a lot of teams, they're vulnerable on the blue line if injuries strike.

tom grand from Burlington, Canada writes: What NHL teams have the depth in their AHL farm club to survive and thrive despite injuries this season?

Duhatschek: None. And I don't mean to be flip either. Virtually every team in the NHL will start the season with a couple of NHLers on bad contracts in the minors, plus a couple of kids that need developing (Columbus with Nikita Filatov immediately comes to mind). It'll all depend on need. But obviously, a team like Detroit, with a defenceman like Jonathan Ericsson, who is a victim of the numbers game, can survive an injury to a fourth-to-sixth defenceman more easily than, say the Flyers. But if it's a pivotal guy — Nicklas Lidstrom or Brian Rafalski — well, you just grit your teeth and gut it out.

Danny Manning from Canada writes: Concerning Toronto in recent times, is it not true that it's never as good when things are going relatively well for the Leafs - four conference final appearances since 1993, some good teams at other times. But that it's also not as bad as it sounds during the lean times (right now, '96 -'98)? To that end, as bad as the Leafs will surely be on some nights this year, isn't something to be said on how they've positioned themselves with a much younger team, salary cap space and a good new coach?…

Duhatschek: I do think Ron Wilson is a good coach and will help the Leafs get better organized. Last year, he had the Sharks first in team defence, first in penalty killing and ninth on the power play with a very average defence corps. So he'll help. Going younger is good too; getting salary-cap space is all good; the problem I see in Toronto is the lack of blue-chip front-line make-a-difference talent such as Crosby, Ovechkin and in time, maybe Steve Stamkos. Rebuilding is one thing, but if the puzzle pieces all have only mid-level upside, then I'm not sure how close you are to executing an about-face in the standings.

+ al rain from Calgary writes: Eric, soon after the salary cap was in place I heard talk of a possible trend of teams spending more money on scouting. Those salaries are not limited by the CBA and that is the place where teams, the logic goes, could spend to improve. Watching the Red Wings dominate and hearing about their long-term vision, scouting, training, teaching, etc. only reinforces this idea for me. My question is, is this happening? Admitedly, I know little about how that part of hockey works but If I ran a team I would look into head-hunting and straight-up stealing the best scouting talent in the world. Paying these guys as scouting superstars would probably be cheaper than the short-term trade-deadline deals that most clubs go after. What's up on the scouting front? Many thanks for taking my question. . .

Duhatschek: My estimate is that about two-thirds of the league has a version of that plan in place — for all the reasons that you cite; if you can unearth "free" players in the nether regions of the draft, or buried in the minors somewhere, then that can fill out your roster expeditiously. It's what the Leafs had in mind when acquiring Mikhail Grabovski from Montreal for a pick — if he can legitimately play as a top-six forward in the NHL, then that's a shrewd acquisition. The Canucks are probably the best example of this forward-thinking under new GM Mike Gillis. Last June, at the draft, he appointed Stan Smyl head of a newly formed U.S. college scouting program. Gillis told me the idea was hatched because kids are going to U.S. colleges at an ever younger age and every year, a handful of players who were virtual unknowns as freshmen, emerge as genuine prospects in their junior or senior years. By devoting a comparatively small sum of money so that someone — Smyl — can monitor those prospects closely day in and day out (and become a fixture on that circuit), it might tilt the balance in Vancouver's favor when they're ready to sign pro contracts. And the teams that aren't increasing their scouting budgets are the ones operating on a comparative shoestring, as player budgets rise.

+ Prussian Prince from Canada writes: Hi Eric, I am looking forward to another season of NHL hockey and eagerly reading your always excellent analysis along the way. I'm interested in your thoughts on the Ottawa Senators, particularly whether you think this team has the potential to seriously falter in the face of any adversity this year. That is, are there any serious fragilities in the team's core confidence that would cause everything to come crashing down (like last year) if they have trouble (whether it be goaltending, loss streak, key injuries) at some point during the season (whether it be in the first 15 games or even in March)? Coach Hartsburg and the entire organization are obviously sensitive to this. Some of the early questions at camp focused on whether this team could rebound from its horrific collapse after the all-star break last year. Hartsburg's keyed on last year being the past and one that should be forgotten; this year is all that matters. Not only was this his line, but he had clearly instilled this message in his players too, as their (seemingly believable) answers to these sorts of questions have been the same. Most indications, including how the team has played so far under Hartsburg, are that the Sens have indeed put last year behind them. What do you think?

Duhatschek:I like the Senators' chances almost as much as Montreal's first because I think Alex Auld has proven over the years that he can be a good teammate. As a result, I don't believe Martin Gerber will play as nervously as he did last year, with Ray Emery in the picture. I'm a little concerned about their depth on defence because while Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips are two real good shutdown rearguards, I don't know if Filip Kuba is going to keep up the scoring pace — or if he can be a true No. 1. And I do think that in certain situations, like Ottawa's last year, where there were just so many distractions off the ice, that the coaching change will benefit them greatly. The players on that team recognize Craig Hartsburg for what he was — a dynamic performer in his playing days, who will be able to read the mood of the team on a daily basis and react accordingly. He was a good choice for that team, at that stage of its development.

Peterborough Pete from Thunder Bay, Canada writes: Who will the worst team in the West be? LA? St. Louis?

Duhatschek: I'd say L.A., by a nose, but both clubs are on the same development curve, willing to endure short-term pain for long-term gain. St. Louis's pain was exacerbated by the fact that Erik Johnson was injured in a golf-cart accident before camp started and will miss the season. Who knows how any player will bounce back from major reconstructive knee surgery? But Brad Boyes is still young, the two Davids — Perron and Backes — will be good NHLers, and Alex Pietrangelo is at least going to start the season in the NHL. Ultimately, I like them better this year because their goaltending tandem (Manny Legace, Chris Mason) is better than L.A.'s.

Alex Kaptyn from Vancouver Canada writes: Long-time reader, first-time writer. The Maple Leafs have clearly started from square one, yet they seem to be making the same age old mistakes. Do you think that they have pushed Luke Schenn, our top prospect into the NHL prematurely?

Duhatschek: No, I don't — and I may have had a different take on this question a couple of years ago, in the old clutch-and-grab NHL. Nowadays, I find the league is a friendlier place for 18- and 19-year-old prospects — they just don't get beat up as badly as they did pre-lockout. And in Schenn's case, most scouts indicated that he might be the most NHL ready prospect coming out of the draft — because of his size, strength and hockey sense. Now, your point — I assume — is that it's one thing for forwards such as Patrick Kane or Sam Gagner to come in as teenagers and succeed; and quite a different story for a defenceman. But you also have to remember — Ron Wilson, in his San Jose days, did a terrific job of bringing young defencemen along: Marc-Edouard Vlasic played as an 18-year-old, a second-round draft choice; he also did a nice job of handling Christian Ehrhoff; even Matt Carle, as a rookie, had a decent first year, before regressing in his sophomore season.

+ Maxwell Maxwell from Canada writes: Hi Eric, it looks as if Shero failed to address the exodus of grit and toughness in Pittsburgh. Out goes Roberts, Rutuu, Malone and Laraque. It looked as if the Sens were having there way with Crosby in Sweden. Are they destined to revert back to the days of Lemieux when he was bullied without a calvary to call in?

Duhatschek: Completely agree. In fact, when I watched the Penguins play their opening two games against Ottawa, while everybody else was focused on Sergei Gonchar's absence as a key reason why the power play suffered, my thought was: Geez, as soon as they lose the puck, there's no one out there to get it back. Satan? Fedotenko? I don't think so. And Crosby can't do it all himself. Eric Godard will replace Georges Laraque as their enforcer; Matt Cooke will help in the sandpaper department and Jordan Staal will eventually evolve into a first-rate two-way player, but it's hard to imagine that they'll go anywhere without a little more Ryan Malone, or even Marian Hossa (not tough but extremely strong) in the line-up — in other words, physical players who can eat up top-six minutes. But I also suspect GM Ray Shero knows and understands this and will, as the season progresses, remedy that situation as his salary-cap space expands. Remember, all they really have to do is make the playoffs in the East, which I think they're capable of doing, and making sure they have the roster they want in place for Apr. 15.

Gordon White from Vancouver, Canada writes: Honestly, how do you expect the Vancouver Canucks to do this season? Has the preseason affected your prediction or the selection of El Capitan? And what do they need to add (other than Mats Sundin) to make it a contender team?

Duhatschek: I honestly don't know what to think of Vancouver at the moment. I've been doing this job long enough (31 years and counting) to put a minimal amount of stock into exhibition results. If there is a carryover into the regular season from Mason Raymond, from Jannik Hansen and especially from Steve Bernier, and there is enough scoring in the line-up, then absolutely, they will contend for top spot in the Northwest (even though the Canucks finished fifth out of five last year, they were only 10 points behind Minnesota). That's a small hill to climb; not Mount Everest. With Roberto Luongo and a quality defence corps, everything will fall into place, if they can keep the scoring numbers up. In terms of joining the ranks of the contenders, they need one or two more front-end forwards; sorry but someone like a Mats Sundin might make a significant difference.

Darryl Youzefowich from Edmonton, Alberta writes: If a recession hits the U.S. next year, which teams there are vulnerable? Will there be a collapse of support or financial crises for any team in particular - who is on the edge?

Duhatschek: My guess is between eight and 10 teams will bleed red ink in a big way; but it won't matter for some, like the Washington Capitals, because owner Ted Leonsis will absorb those losses and carry on. So your question is, where all the vulnerable ownership situations? Well, Nashville for sure — it's a mess now and won't be sorted out until someone lands Boots Del Biaggio's 27 per cent of the team, which is now in front of a bankruptcy court. Others: Florida, Atlanta, and Phoenix. Tampa will be worth watching because while the two owners there, Oren Koules and Len Barrie, are extremely active, it'll be interesting to see how deep their pockets are, if — as you suggest — the recession continues. L.A. and Carolina are probably OK because of the wealth of their respective owners. If the Anschutz Group ever gets tired of owning the Kings, I'm sure Mr. Jerry Bruckheimer will step into the breach, now that the Vegas expansion appears on hold.

D W from Switzerland writes: Hi Eric, every year at this time, hockey commentators stumble over a vocabulary problem: they forget that the word 'surprise' means -- hold on! -- a surprise. As in: something you do not expect and absolutely would not forecast. So here goes with my 2008-09 surprise prediction: Washington Capitals to the Stanley Cup finals. Greatness tends to attract greatness in hockey, as with a Bobby Orr or Mario or Bossy and Trottier, and today also Crosby, whose arrival on a formerly lousy team somehow sets fire to their supporting roster . This season, I think Ovechkin may be the locomotive for a big breakthrough by the Caps. Surprise!

Duhatschek: You may be right about Washington — although I would have been more impressed if you'd picked them last year to win the division, coming out of camp. I know I didn't see that coming so soon. Does picking Buffalo, a 10th-place finisher last year, to have a better-than-expected year count as a surprise? That'd be my off-the-wall pick.

Ivinder Ahuja from United States writes: Hi Eric, love your column. Question: Which team do you think could be the biggest disappointment this year? What about the a team that could suprise people?

Duhatschek: Interesting question, Ivinder. Minnesota won a division title last year; the defections of Pavol Demitra and Brian Rolston leave them vulnerable up front. And apart from Buffalo, I'm interested in seeing what Ken Hitchcock does with that eclectic collection of talent in Columbus. Geez, they have to make the playoffs one of these years, don't they?

Moderator: Eric, we'll take one final question, OK?

Don Henderson from London, United Kingdom writes: Hi Eric, thanks for spending your time with us today. I was wondering what you think about the new statistics that are being worked on by bloggers? In particular, there is some interesting stuff coming out of the hockey blogosphere with respect to attempts to quantify quality-of-opposition when evaluating a player's core statistics (goals, assists, plus-minus). When you look at a player like Dion Phaneuf (a Norris Trophy finalist) you can see that the quality of opposition he faces nightly isn't as impressive as what Nick Lidstrom lines up against. What do you think of these new stats and do you know if any NHL teams are using them (or some variant) to help evaluate their players and opposition?

Duhatschek: I love the work that the bloggers do; I try to check Paul Kukla's site every day and even though I may be prejudiced about this, I think our own James Mirtle does a spectacular job on his site as well (and in fact, I don't know where he finds the time to do it). Do teams use the stats generated by the bloggers? I know when Minnesota hired Chris Snow away from his newspaper job to be their director of hockey operations, it was partly because of his wizardry with numbers. The NHL is like any other ultra-competitive business in that regard — anything that gives a team even the smallest leg up, is an initiative worth pursuing.

Thanks to everybody who submitted questions today. My fingers generally fly across the keyboard, but I couldn't get to them all today. I will try to address the others in blog entries over the next 72 hours.

Moderator: Thank you, Eric, and thanks everyone for participating in globesports.com's annual chat to drop the puck on the new NHL season. Enjoy the season!

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