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In the end, the law of hockey probabilities caught up with Cinderella.

Sweden will face the winner of the Canada-Russia tilt in Monday's World Junior Championship gold medal game after surviving a scare at the hands of plucky Slovakia.

Though the Swedes won the game 5-3, the margin was anything but comfortable against a team still riding high from its upset of a powerful United States squad in Friday's quarter-final.

Despite firing 50 shots at Slovak goalie Jaroslav Janus — perhaps the revelation of the tournament — the heavily-favoured Swedes needed a power-play marker and an ugly goal to outdistance their indisputably game opposition.

As Sweden coach Per Marts drily said of the suspense surrounding the game: "I don't think Alfred Hitchcock could have done it better."

Nevertheless, Sweden did enough to return to the gold medal game for a second successive year, where it hopes to snap a 28-year gold medal drought.

"We didn't perform at our top level, but we showed we could come back in a game and win it," said defenceman Eric Karlsson, an Ottawa Senators draft who led all scorers with three assists. "It proves we have the psychological things we need to turn a game over."

As they did against the U.S., the Slovaks appeared to confound Sweden with their spirited play, solid defensive coverage, and stellar goaltending.

And again as they did against the Americans, Slovakia jumped out to a slightly fortunate lead — scoring with 3.6 seconds left in the first — despite being outplayed.

Janus, who plays with the Ontario Hockey League's Erie Otters, looked as if he hadn't dared to change out of his gear after the U.S. game, and played the first period against Sweden as if there had only been a short intermission between it and the final period against the Americans.

"We could have won this game, but in the third period we stopped playing for like five minutes, and they scored four goals. It's very sad," said Janus, who went undrafted last year, who will now lead his team on Monday in the bronze medal game.

The last time the two countries faced each other in the medal round of the World Juniors — in a semi-final in 1999 — the Slovaks prevailed, but this year against a stacked Swedish team that was among the pre-tournament favourites, their luck ran out.

Despite some shaky play in the early stages, Sweden goalie Jacob Markstrom, the most dominant backstop in the tournament, turned in some key saves and the team scored three goals in a four-minute third period span to overcome a 2-1 deficit.

But even as they fell behind 4-2 to a Swedish side that was gaining in confidence and fluency with each rush up the ice, the Slovaks battled.

Indeed, Slovakia coach Stefan Mikes pulled Janus with more than four minutes remaining in a bid to narrow the gap.

The improbable tactic worked a treat, as offensive sparkplug Tomas Tatar — who is eligible for the upcoming draft — tallied his second of the game and sixth goal of the tournament, which left him second on the scoring list behind Canadian sensation John Tavares going into the evening Canada-Russia tilt.

But it wasn't to be as Swedish captain Oscar Moller, who has played 30 games this season for the Los Angeles Kings, settled the issue with a late empty-net goal.

"The third period was a lot more fun, that's for sure," a relieved Moller said.

Highly-touted defenceman Victor Hedman — seen by some as a rival to Tavares for the distinction of being the first overall draft pick in 2009 — was largely anonymous, although he did his best to get involved offensively with a magnificent third-period rush that saw him stymied by Janus.

Still, Hedman did no harm to his standing with an assured display.

"We knew that we were a stronger team than that," he said. "It's better to have a tough game than just go straight to (the gold medal game)."

In perhaps his most impressive spell of the game, Hedman passed the puck between his legs and kicked it up to his skates on a rush, showing why scouts drool over his mix of towering size, defensive nous and offensive skill.

But lanky forward Magnus Svenson-Paarjarvi was arguably the best among Sweden's draft-eligible players, proving a constant thorn for the Slovakian defence with his speed and size.

Sweden began the game tentatively but steadily found its feet before a pro-Slovakian crowd of 18,112.

By the time Calgary Flames prospect Mikael Backlund scored his second goal of the game it became clear experience and class would win out over pluck.

The Slovaks opened the scoring on the power-play with only 3.6 seconds remaining in the first period.

Moments after Swedish Markstrom thwarted Tatar, the puck popped out to the point, where defenceman Marek Mertel floated a 50-foot wrister that somehow eluded the Swedish goalie's trapper.

An appreciative Scotiabank Place crowd erupted as the jubilant Slovaks celebrated.

The Swedes turned up the heat in the second frame, doubling the Slovak shot total, and leveled matters at 1-1 with a pretty play by Calgary Flames first-rounder Mikael Backlund, who criss-crossed with forward Carl Gustafsson, picked up the puck, and snapped it past Janus high on the glove side.

But the Slovaks hadn't said their last word, and when Sweden's defence inexplicably parted during a Slovakia power-play, the shifty Tatar walked in from the half-boards and picked the corner high to Markstrom's glove side.

Sweden was convinced it had tied the game as time expired in the second — on a Nichlas Torp point shot — but after review it was determined the horn sounding the end of the period went off before the puck entered the net.

The Swedes did eventually tie the game seven minutes into the third after Backlund potted his second from a sizzling point shot on the power-play — it was Sweden's 39th shot.

And when David Ullstrom poked the puck behind Janus during a third-period scramble at the side of the net, the Swedes took a lead they would not relinquish.

Moments later, Sweden went up 4-2 after a blue-line turnover from Juraj Valach, Sweden's Mattias Tedenby made a pass to Simon Hjalmarsson, who notched his fourth of tournament.

The goal would stand as the winner despite Slovakia's late flurry.